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A Missile Strikes Poland: How Russia’s War Could Spread

A Missile Strikes Poland: How Russia’s War Could Spread

Thursday, November 17, 2022

When a missile slammed into a Polish village Tuesday, killing two farmers, it brought Russia’s war on Ukraine directly to the territory of a NATO ally. The immediate uncertainties included media speculation, and an assertion by Ukraine’s government, that Russia had struck Poland, risking a direct NATO response and an expansion of the war. That immediate threat eased as evidence grew that a Ukrainian air defense missile had strayed — but the incident illustrated that the dangers of an escalated war are real. The only true remedy for this threat is for Russia to stop waging war against Ukraine.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Three Key Takeaways from the Biden-Xi Summit

Three Key Takeaways from the Biden-Xi Summit

Thursday, November 17, 2022

With the U.S.-China relationship at its lowest point in decades, the American and Chinese leaders met this week on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Indonesia for their first face-to-face summit since Joe Biden was elected. The deteriorating bilateral relationship became particularly concerning in August when China cut key lines of communication between Washington and Beijing, including on critical military and climate issues, following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Three-Year Bangsamoro Transition Extension Seen as a Critical Opportunity

Three-Year Bangsamoro Transition Extension Seen as a Critical Opportunity

Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Engr. Mohajirin Ali is the director general of the Bangsamoro Planning and Development Authority (BPDA), which coordinates the formulation of the Bangsamoro government’s socioeconomic development policies and plans, and monitors and evaluates those plans. Aliah Adam, who serves as the coordinator for local NGO Singanen O Mindanao and as a consultant for USIP, recently interviewed Ali to discuss the BPDA’s role, the major achievements of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority and the importance of the three-year extension of the transition period of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao. The following are edited excerpts from the interview.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

Five Key Issues Facing Pakistan’s New Army Chief

Five Key Issues Facing Pakistan’s New Army Chief

Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Pakistan just underwent a major military transition. Last week, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif appointed General Asim Munir as the new chief of the country’s powerful army, succeeding Qamar Bajwa who held the position for six years. Munir is a former chief of Pakistan’s powerful intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and before that the head of the country’s military intelligence. In nuclear-armed Pakistan with the world’s fifth largest military and a history of military rule, the army chief tends to be the most powerful leader — at times even perceived as the de facto leader due to significant influence over Pakistan’s domestic and foreign policies.

Type: Analysis

Civilian-Military RelationsDemocracy & GovernanceGlobal Policy

Preparing for Victory in Ukraine

Preparing for Victory in Ukraine

Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Success. That’s the potential outcome that the United States, Ukraine, allied and partner governments, and private-sector actors must now prepare to confront. Ukraine’s counteroffensives, backed by expanded and accelerated U.S. and allied support, continue to push Russian forces out of Ukrainian territory, although at a reduced rate. These hard-won successes, however, bring with them possible challenges that also must be addressed.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

After G-20, Amid Unprecedented Protests: Where Do U.S.-China Relations Stand?

After G-20, Amid Unprecedented Protests: Where Do U.S.-China Relations Stand?

Thursday, December 1, 2022

U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping met earlier this month on the sidelines of the G-20 gathering in Bali and came away with seemingly little to show for the gesture. Those hoping for a major reset in the U.S.-China relationship from the first face-to-face meeting between Biden and Xi held were surely disappointed, with no signs of an emerging détente between Washington and Beijing visible.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Incremental Denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula

Incremental Denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula

Tuesday, December 6, 2022

Tensions are rising on the Korean Peninsula as many believe North Korea is planning to conduct the seventh nuclear weapons test in the country’s history and the first since 2017. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has warned of an “unprecedented joint response” and called on China — North Korea’s closest ally — to dissuade Pyongyang from going through with the test. Amid this troubling geopolitical environment, USIP’s Frank Aum discussed the prospects for peace on the Korean Peninsula with Yonsei University’s Dr. Moon Chung-in.

Type: Analysis

Global PolicyConflict Analysis & Prevention