Conflict Analysis & Prevention
Strategies to prevent, manage or resolve violent conflict can succeed only if they are grounded in clear analysis of the causes and potential trajectory of a conflict. Through research, training and analytical techniques, the U.S. Institute of Peace empowers practitioners and local communities with means to more effectively avert violent conflict.
FeaturedPublications
What’s Behind the Lebanon-Gulf Diplomatic Row?
Already in the throes of existential political and economic crises, Lebanon is now facing a diplomatic row with Saudi Arabia and several of its allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Following critical comments made by Lebanese Minister of Information George Kordahi about the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, Riyadh expelled Lebanon’s ambassador, banned all Lebanese imports, and recalled its ambassador to Lebanon. In solidarity, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait summoned their ambassadors in Lebanon. This current crisis reflects the Gulf’s broader concerns over Iran’s influence in the region and the powerful role of its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.
How China Responds to Instability on Its Periphery: Lessons from Afghanistan and Myanmar
China’s timid rhetoric and underwhelming actions vis-à-vis recent political upheaval in two different neighboring countries belie the image of a confident and assertive Beijing. What explains this apparent paradox? Despite the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s outward bravado, combined with unprecedented expansion of China’s regional and global activities and presence, Xi Jinping and his Politburo colleagues remain wary when it comes to taking risks abroad. Certainly, when China believes its interests are being directly attacked, such as in recent disputes with Australia and India, the state has opted for riskier, more aggressive moves. But where Beijing is not a direct party to the conflict, caution can override its willingness to take action that would show its hand or put China in a situation where it is not guaranteed to avoid a messy exit, à la the United States in Afghanistan.
Scott Worden on Afghanistan’s Dire Humanitarian and Economic Crises
As Afghans face mass hunger and economic collapse, USIP’s Scott Worden says it remains to be seen how the Taliban will react to internal and external pressure to address these crises: “Will they respond … by adapting, by softening policies, by being more inclusive or will they have a crackdown?”
CurrentProjects
Civic Mobilization in Civil Resistance Transitions Dataset
Since January 2021, USIP has been collecting data on the frequency and characteristics of civic mobilization in 83 political transitions initiated through civil resistance from 1945 to the present to help understand when challenges to democratic progress have been successfully overcome and provide practical lessons learned for activists, policymakers and academics interested in nonviolent action and democratization.
Youth Country Liaison Initiative
USIP created the Youth Country Liaison initiative to improve linkages between USIP country teams and USIP Generation Change fellows. As part of the initiative, the liaisons provide consultation within USIP and provide a youth-focused lens for USIP regional teams as they design and implement programs and activities. The Youth Country Liaison is a volunteer position for a duration of one year.
Violent Extremist Disengagement and Reconciliation
Violent Extremist Disengagement and Reconciliation (VEDR) is the peacebuilding contribution to disengagement from violent extremism and reconciliation with local communities. It de-exceptionalizes violent extremism from other challenges that result from similar sets of risk factors and social environments by emphasizing peacebuilding and public health.