Dr. Andrew Scobell is a distinguished fellow with the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace. He focuses on U.S.-China relations, China’s armed forces and defense policy and China’s foreign relations with countries and regions around the world — with a particular emphasis on the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

He previously spent more than 10 years as a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where his research and publications focused on China and the Indo-Pacific. Prior to RAND, Scobell was an associate professor at the George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service and founding director of the China Certificate Program at Texas A&M University. From 1999 to 2007 he served as associate research professor in the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College. He is also an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service.

Dr. Scobell’s research interests include authoritarianism, communism and post-communism, civil-military relations, patterns and processes of cooperation and conflict, the use of armed force, crisis management, coercive diplomacy, deterrence, grand strategy and military strategy. He has authored or co-authored two books, 30 reports and more than 40 journal articles. He has also edited or co-edited 20 volumes.

Dr. Scobell earned a doctorate from Columbia University, a master’s from the University of Washington’s Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies and a bachelor’s from Whitman College. His awards include the Donald Bren Chair in Non-Western Strategic Thought at Marine Corps University, the Silver Star Award at Texas A&M University, the John Madigan Award at the U.S. Army War College, the Victor Olorunsola Award at the University of Louisville. He has also been a foreign language and area studies fellow at Columbia University and a foreign affairs and national defense fellow at the Congressional Research Service. Dr. Scobell was born and raised in Hong Kong.

Publications By Andrew

The United States and China: Who Changed the ‘Status Quo’ over Taiwan?

The United States and China: Who Changed the ‘Status Quo’ over Taiwan?

Wednesday, June 22, 2022

By: Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.;  Alex Stephenson

Taiwan has been the perennial problematic issue in U.S.-China relations for decades. President Biden’s comments during a recent trip to East Asia put that in stark relief. When asked if the United States would be willing to “militarily defend” Taiwan if China were to invade, Biden said, “Yes, that’s the commitment we made.” Administration officials later appeared to walk back the president’s comments. But Beijing reacted forcefully, conducting military drills close to the island and with numerous Chinese officials condemning the comments. Most recently, at the Shangri-La Dialogue earlier this June, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe warned that the People’s Liberation Army will “fight to the very end” if Taiwan dares to “secede” from China. Beijing’s vociferous reaction to Biden’s comments underscores how contentious the Taiwan issue remains and how easily tensions can flare.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global Policy

China, India and Pakistan: Tenuous Stability Risks Nuclear War

China, India and Pakistan: Tenuous Stability Risks Nuclear War

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

By: Daniel Markey, Ph.D.;  Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.;  Vikram J. Singh

Over the past decade, long-standing disputes between the nuclear-armed states of Southern Asia have repeatedly veered into deeper hostility and violence. These regional developments reflect and reinforce new and significant geopolitical shifts, starting with the global strategic competition between China and the United States. In Southern Asia, relations between the United States and Pakistan have frayed even as U.S.-India and China-Pakistan ties have strengthened. The region now faces deepening and more multifaceted polarization. Global competition adds fuel to regional conflict and reduces options for crisis mediation.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine.

China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine.

Friday, March 4, 2022

By: Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.;  Lucy Stevenson-Yang

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the most consequential military conflict Europe has witnessed since the Second World War — has riveted the attention of the world. Observers have grappled with the meaning of the act of aggression and scrambled to ponder the wider implications of the war. Almost inevitably people look to draw analogies—both historical and contemporary ones. 

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

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