Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Can Arab States Bounce Back from COVID and Climates Crises?
More than two years into the pandemic, Arab states continue to struggle with the economic and social impacts of COVID-19. Meanwhile, climate change is devastating the region — and its governments are ill-equipped to address massive problems like water scarcity and scorching temperatures. Even before COVID, much of the region was wracked by conflict, embroiled in social tension, suffering from lagging economies and witnessing growing disquiet over the unrealized aspirations of the Arab uprisings. These challenges are detailed in the U.N. Development Programme’s recently released 2022 Arab Human Development Report, which also lays out a path for an “inclusive and resilient recovery.”
Putin and Erdogan in Iran to Discuss Syria’s Future, Ukraine War
The leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran are gathering in Tehran, with Ankara’s threat of a new incursion into northern Syria likely to top the agenda. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has both domestic and strategic reasons for the move, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi want to maintain the status quo in Syria, where both their countries have expended significant resources to prop up the Assad regime. Russia’s war on Ukraine will also feature prominently at the trilateral summit. Iran has offered to provide Moscow with drones and Putin and Erdogan are reportedly set to discuss restarting Ukrainian grain exports in the Black Sea.
Amid Historic Crisis, Has a New Hope Emerged in Lebanon?
As Lebanon suffers from an historic economic crisis propelled by the venality of its political establishment, the May 15 elections have injected a glimmer of hope amid gloomy prospects for the future. Thirteen independent candidates — part of what is dubbed the “change opposition” — won seats in the 128-member Parliament. “The election of these 13 MPs [members of Parliament] is a very important, gradual first step toward more peaceful political change and reform in Lebanon,” said Mona Yacoubian, a Lebanon expert and senior advisor for the U.S. Institute of Peace. But the road ahead is fraught with internal challenges and external forces that could impede Lebanon’s much-needed reform.
Al-Hol: Displacement Crisis is a Tinderbox that Could Ignite ISIS 2.0
More than three years after ISIS’s territorial defeat, the vexing challenge of displacement threatens to provoke the rise of ISIS 2.0 if not adequately addressed. The May 11 Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS ministerial meeting in Marrakech, Morocco highlights these concerns over the evolving threat the so-called Islamic State still poses. The Marrakech meeting coincides with both growing disquiet at deteriorating humanitarian and security conditions in the al-Hol displacement camp in northeast Syria — ground zero for the ISIS-related displacement crisis — and some hope for a path forward.
How Russia May Reprise Its Syrian Playbook in Ukraine
The tragic patterns set in Russia’s brutal war in Syria are unfolding anew in Ukraine. Already, chilling parallels are evident between Moscow’s prosecution of the Syrian conflict and its current conduct in its Eastern European neighbor. Going forward, Russia’s Syrian playbook may provide additional insights into its approach to diplomacy as well as how Russia now envisions its eventual Ukrainian endgame.
The Living Legacy of the Arab Uprisings
A decade after the popular uprisings that dramatically swept the Arab world in 2011, the debate continues about their impact, meaning and ultimate value in understanding contemporary Arab politics and culture. When Egypt reverted to strongman rule with Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi's coup in 2013, and as the civil wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen dragged on with no sign of resolution in recent years, many concluded that the “Arab Spring” was an ephemeral and failed experiment in political change. The dramatic democratic backsliding in Tunisia, where President Kais Saied suspended parliament and dismissed the prime minister in what many critics and observers have described as a coup, could only add to that conclusion, as Tunisia was often considered the Arab Spring's only "success story."
Lebanon: Assessing Political Paralysis, Economic Crisis and Challenges for U.S. Policy
Mona Yacoubian, senior advisor to the vice president of Middle East & North Africa, testified on July 29, 2021 at the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and Global Counterterrorism's hearing on "Lebanon: Assessing Political Paralysis, Economic Crisis and Challenges for U.S. Policy." Her expert testimony as prepared is presented below.
Mona Yacoubian on Lebanon’s Dangerous Meltdown
As Lebanon teeters on the edge of total state collapse, USIP’s Mona Yacoubian says very little stands in the way of malign actors and possibly a new migrant crisis in the region: “The lights are truly blinking red … if the army collapses, then, honestly, I think all bets are off.”
Lebanon on the Brink of Historic Breakdown
Lebanon’s devolving economic and financial crisis could potentially be one of the world’s three worst since 1850, according to a World Bank report released last week. The increasingly dire situation — exacerbated by the COVID pandemic and last year’s Port of Beirut explosion — has likely dragged more than half the population below the poverty line, as unemployment soars and the price of basic goods surges. Already accomplices to this economic collapse due to years of corruption and mismanagement, Lebanon’s leaders have been reviled for their limited response. With Lebanese exasperated with their increasingly desperate situation, there could be widespread social unrest and a major breakdown, which would have important humanitarian and regional security implications.
Despite the Sham, Syria's Election is Still Significant
In the face of international pushback, the Assad regime is going forward with plans for a presidential election on May 26. While the outcome is in no way uncertain — Assad will win amid deeply unfair election practices — the decision to proceed with the vote has major implications for international efforts to resolve the decade-long civil war. USIP’s Mona Yacoubian looks at how the election might affect the situation on the ground in Syria, what it means for the U.N.-backed Geneva peace process and how the Assad regime’s renewed stranglehold on power could affect regional tensions and U.S. interests.