Insightful analysis is essential to any conflict management process, from prevention to mediation to reconciliation. This course will help you understand the potential trajectories of a conflict situation so you can develop effective peacebuilding strategies.

The commander of the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia visits the site of a truck-bomb attack allegedly conducted by al-Shabab in Mogadishu on Oct. 15, 2017. Photo: Flickr/AMISOM/Tobin Jones
The commander of the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia visits the site of a truck-bomb attack allegedly conducted by al-Shabab in Mogadishu on Oct. 15, 2017. Photo: Flickr/AMISOM/Tobin Jones

Course Overview

A nuanced understanding of the context and dynamics of a conflict can determine the effectiveness with which you intervene, help you untangle the often-unintended consequences of any actions or policies, prevent any harm from being done, and help determine future priorities for program development.

This course is a case-based introduction to the process of conflict analysis. Participants will be introduced to two analytical tools that will help them identify emerging threats of conflict and opportunities for managing or resolving a conflict, and they will be given the chance to apply these tools to historical cases and relevant problem-based scenarios and differentiate among the various stages of the Curve of Conflict and practice mapping the generation, escalation and resolution of intrastate and international conflict. Further topics in Chapter 3 include how and why peaceful conflicts escalate to violence and the necessary conditions for their de-escalation.

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Chapter 1 - Conflict in the Contemporary World

In this chapter we explore the importance of conflict analysis in today’s world and how the nature of conflict and trends in deadly violence have changed since World War II.

Chapter 2 - Conflict Analysis as a Leadership Tool

Chapter 2 introduces some of the definitions and principles of conflict analysis. This chapter starts to delve into ideas such as the difference between a conflict assessment and conflict analysis, the importance of active listening, and the concept of “Do No Harm.” Additionally, you are introduced to several conflict analysis and assessment frameworks utilized by various organizations around the world. Lastly, we examine the concepts of adaptive leadership and community resilience and how conflict analysis helps to develop them.

Chapter 3 - Stages and Dimensions of Conflict

This chapter introduces two specific frameworks for conflict analysis: the “cycle of conflict” and the “curve of conflict.” Various components of these analytical frameworks are discussed in depth, such as: the difference between conflict prevention, management and transformation; the root causes and structural causes of conflict; and trigger events. We also explore some of the important nuances in conflict analysis such as: qualitative vs. quantitative measurements and data, the different levels at which a conflict may be analyzed, trigger events, and unintended consequences.

Chapter 4 - The USIP Conflict Assessment Framework

In this chapter, we explore the various stages and key components of the USIP Conflict Assessment Framework, compare it with others, and review key components of conflict analysis. Specifically, we also discuss conducting a self-assessment; developing an information-gathering strategy; identifying conflict dividers, connectors, and various actors; charting potential conflict risk and opportunity windows; and applying findings to your work.

Chapter 5 - The Art of Listening

In this chapter we explore an essential skill for a good conflict analysis, listening. Observation skills can combine with knowledge of parties’ “mythic histories” and “biased punctuation” to create successful narrative mediation efforts. We explore these concepts to incorporate into conflict analyses and, hopefully, into your work.

Course Instructors

  • Dr. Jeffrey Helsing - Peacebuilding Consultant, former Associate Vice President of the Academy, U.S. Institute of Peace
  • Matthew Levinger - Director, National Security Studies Program; Program Director, Master of International Policy and Practice; George Washington University

Related Publications

The Latest @ USIP: Peace Games and Crisis Preparedness

The Latest @ USIP: Peace Games and Crisis Preparedness

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

By: Sale Lilly

When a crisis or disaster strikes, organizations and institutions usually don’t have time to suddenly revise or change their policy. Games or simulations allow actors to plan ahead and ensure that their response system is prepared for whatever might unfold. Sale Lilly, a designer of war games and crisis simulations, discusses applying his work to peacebuilding, why building off historical scenarios can add a layer a realism to the exercise, and why inviting the right people is just as important as the design itself.

Type: Blog

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Libya Can Move Past Its Political Deadlock, But It Will Take Work to Maintain A ‘Deal’

Libya Can Move Past Its Political Deadlock, But It Will Take Work to Maintain A ‘Deal’

Friday, May 19, 2023

By: Andrew Cheatham

Since 2012, multiple failed political transitions have taken their toll on the Libyan people. The continued and increasingly complex internal divisions and external vectors affecting Libya threaten to send it into another spiral of crisis and violence. Local and national leaders working in good faith to stabilize the country have inevitably grown cynical as ruling elites and their international partners fail to deliver local security and good governance.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionPeace Processes

Sudan: Engage Civilians Now, Not Later

Sudan: Engage Civilians Now, Not Later

Thursday, May 18, 2023

By: Susan Stigant

Over the last month, a series of cease-fires in Sudan have yielded minimal results. Fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has continued and even intensified in some places. While the capital Khartoum and areas surrounding key infrastructure remain the core battlegrounds, the clashes have spread into other parts of the country.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionPeace Processes

Amid the Fight for Myanmar, Federalism Rises from the Grass Roots

Amid the Fight for Myanmar, Federalism Rises from the Grass Roots

Thursday, May 11, 2023

By: Priscilla A. Clapp;  Arkar Hein

On April 11, Myanmar’s ruthless military dictatorship showed just how much it fears the emergence of local governments that have slipped beyond its control. As about 200 villagers in the Sagaing region celebrated a new administrative center after junta-controlled officials had fled, fighter jets swooped in and dropped munitions on the crowd. When people sought to retrieve the dead and injured, an Mi35 helicopter arrived and circled, strafing the scene. At least 170 people, including women and children, died in the attack.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionDemocracy & Governance

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