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Possible Russian Nuclear Deployments to Belarus Could Shift Europe’s Nuclear Balance

Possible Russian Nuclear Deployments to Belarus Could Shift Europe’s Nuclear Balance

Thursday, June 30, 2022

During a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart on June 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that “within the next several months,” Russia intends to transfer Iskander-M missiles — which can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads — to Belarus and begin upgrading Belarusian Su-25 fighters to carry nuclear weapons. Most of the details of the deal remain unknown or to be determined. But should Putin’s promise turn out to be more than nuclear bluster — something Putin and other Russian officials have resorted to since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine — the deployment could remake the nuclear balance in Europe and increase the risk of a potential NATO-Russia conflict occurring.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Russia Has Relaxed its Rhetoric on NATO’s Nordic Expansion

Russia Has Relaxed its Rhetoric on NATO’s Nordic Expansion

Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Russia for years has warned that it would take military steps, among others, to counter any eventual decision by Finland or Sweden to join NATO. Yet since the Nordic countries declared that intention in mid-May, Russian officials’ changing rhetoric suggests that the Kremlin will seek to avoid any real confrontation over prospective NATO expansion.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Another Way to Help Ukraine: Prepare Now for a Peace Process

Another Way to Help Ukraine: Prepare Now for a Peace Process

Thursday, June 16, 2022

Three months of Russia’s savagery against Ukraine have left little space in current policy discussions for considering a peace process. President Biden vows to strengthen Ukraine before any negotiations by providing more arms and funds, and tougher sanctions on Russia. Alongside that vital support for Ukraine’s defense, it is important to develop other ways to help Ukraine end bloodshed and protect its future. One track of policy should be preparation now for negotiations if that opportunity emerges.

Type: Analysis

Peace Processes

Ukraine: How to Oppose Russia’s Weaponization of Corruption

Ukraine: How to Oppose Russia’s Weaponization of Corruption

Thursday, June 9, 2022

Fifteen weeks of Ukrainians’ staunch resistance to Russia’s invasion has created an opportunity to weaken one of Russia’s main weapons to undermine democracy and stability in other countries, according to Eka Tkeshelashvili, a former foreign minister of Georgia. As democracies bolster Ukraine’s defense, they also should step up support for Ukraine to root out the corruption in business and government that has long been Russian President Vladimir Putin’s primary method to cripple the independence of Russia’s neighbors. One impact of the war will be to create a stronger political base for throttling corruption in Ukraine, Tkeshelashvili said.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Policy

Russia’s War Has Created a Human Trafficking Crisis, Says U.N. Envoy

Russia’s War Has Created a Human Trafficking Crisis, Says U.N. Envoy

Tuesday, June 7, 2022

The humanitarian crisis caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine is rapidly turning into a human trafficking one in which women and children, who make up the majority of the refugees fleeing the war, are being exploited, according to the United Nations Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Patten. She said there is an urgent need for a “coordinated regional approach” to what she described as “a crisis within a crisis.”

Type: Analysis

GenderHuman Rights

The United States Speaks Clearly on Russia’s Ukraine War

The United States Speaks Clearly on Russia’s Ukraine War

Friday, June 3, 2022

President Biden’s essay on the Ukraine war in Tuesday’s New York Times has vitally clarified America’s interests and goals following weeks of public debate weighted with uncertainty and concern over U.S. intentions and methods in that conflict. It offers a straightforward, positive approach—one that the world’s democracies should sustain—for confronting Russia’s assault against not only Ukraine, but global peace, stability and the rule of law.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Putin’s War Backfires as Finland, Sweden Seek to Join NATO

Putin’s War Backfires as Finland, Sweden Seek to Join NATO

Thursday, May 26, 2022

Only three months into Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, the geopolitical ripple effects are being felt across the European continent. Motivated by Moscow’s aggression, Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO, ending decades of both states’ respective non-aligned status. Finnish and Swedish NATO accession would boost the capabilities and defensibility of the alliance. Their joining NATO is a rebuke of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has bristled over the alliance’s post-Cold War expansion and used it as a pretext for his Ukraine incursion.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Global Peace Needs a Clear U.S. Reply to Putin’s Nuclear Threat

Global Peace Needs a Clear U.S. Reply to Putin’s Nuclear Threat

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

As signs increase that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is failing to achieve President Vladimir Putin’s goals, he has hinted menacingly at using a chemical or nuclear weapon. This leads some western analysts to suggest offering Putin a face-saving exit from his crisis. That would be a simplistic answer to a complex challenge, rather than the finely balanced response that is needed. Worse, it would be dangerous, signaling to governments worldwide that armed aggression — especially with weapons of mass destruction at hand — is a sure path to wielding international power.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

On Ukraine, Africa Needs a Clearer U.S. Message

On Ukraine, Africa Needs a Clearer U.S. Message

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

As democracies rally to defend an international rules-based system against Russia’s brutal attack on Ukrainians, the United States should forge an alliance with African partners by committing with them now to resolve the Ukraine crisis in a way that makes that system fairer and more inclusive. One early step is for U.S. and other policymakers to highlight the core of this conflict: The 44 million Ukrainians are fighting to govern themselves freely within their internationally recognized borders — a cause that is viscerally real to billions of people across Africa and the “global south.”

Type: Analysis

Global Policy