Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Russia Expands Its War on Ukraine — to Global Food Supplies
Russia’s Vladimir Putin has again made his invasion of Ukraine an effective war on global food supplies. Having scuttled the year-old deal to allow grain exports via the Black Sea, Putin is attacking Ukraine’s ports to cripple the ability of a major food grower to supply world markets. These actions immediately increased grain prices, holding the world’s poorest people hostage to Moscow’s demands. Putin’s new belligerence is likely to damage his efforts to build political support from China and the Global South. The United States should lead efforts to hold Russia accountable for any new hunger crises from these acts, and to press Putin to reverse this course.
Washington Picks Up the Pace in the Pacific
Senior Biden administration officials are back in the Pacific Islands region this week. Once a seemingly far-flung corner of the globe, the United States has in recent years prioritized engagement to counter China’s foothold in a region Washington long neglected. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is the first U.S. defense chief to visit Papua New Guinea, where Secretary of State Antony Blinken went in late May and signed a bilateral defense cooperation deal. Meanwhile, Blinken is Tonga this week to open a new U.S. embassy in the island nation. The top U.S. diplomat will also visit New Zealand before heading to Australia where he will be joined by Austin for the annual Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations.
How to Break the Impasse in U.S.-China Crisis Communication
Despite the clear (and arguably growing) possibility of a future Sino-American crisis or even conflict over Taiwan or some other contentious issue and the fact that senior American and Chinese leaders have at times endorsed the need for more effective crisis avoidance interactions, little of real substance has actually been done to address the danger. Indeed, military-to-military talks have been on pause since Beijing suspended them in August 2022 after then-speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. As U.S.-China competition continues to intensify, it is critical that Washington and Beijing break this impasse by devising fresh approaches to avoid conflict altogether.
What Does Qin Gang’s Removal Mean for China’s Foreign Policy?
Speculation has run rampant the last month over the whereabouts of China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang. Rumors ranged from the salacious (he had an affair) to the mundane, while the official line states that he is dealing with health problems. On Tuesday, China officially replaced Qin with his predecessor, Wang Yi, who leads the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) foreign policy apparatus. Qin’s removal from office, and the erasure of references to him and his activities on official Chinese government websites, have only furthered interest into what happened. Beyond the political intrigue, the more substantive question is what this means for China’s diplomacy.
At Ukraine’s Edge, Russia Presses Hybrid War on Tiny Moldova
At a sensitive edge of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Moscow is sustaining a campaign to regain control in Moldova, the small, ex-Soviet republic landlocked between Ukraine and Romania. Russia has maneuvered for years to scuttle Moldovans’ aims to join the European Union, crimping their economy and controlling easternmost Moldova with Russian troops and proxies. A Kremlin-backed party won a Moldovan regional election in May and Moscow will aim to defeat Moldova’s pro-European national government in elections by 2025. The United States and its partners should urgently unify efforts to help Moldovans sustain their independence and stability.
A Coup in Niger: What It Means for Africa, U.S. and Partners
This morning’s coup d’etat in Niger only deepens the pattern of instability across Africa’s Sahel and damages what has been a rare process of fairly steady democracy building in the region. Niger’s democratically elected government has been a valued partner for African and international efforts to stabilize the Sahel against its web of insurgencies, extremist movements and military coups. Kamissa Camara, a former foreign minister of Niger’s neighbor, Mali, now an analyst on the region with USIP, says the coup underlines lessons already evident about how to improve international efforts to build democracy and peace.
It’s Time for an All-Out War on Explosive Remnants in Solomon Islands
On August 7, U.S. military personnel, diplomats and civilians will gather at the WWII American Guadalcanal Memorial to mark the 81st anniversary of the U.S. Marine landings. Two days of planned commemorative events will include speeches, wreath laying and gatherings to honor the valor of those who fought and the sacrifices of those who never came home. But too often, U.S. attendees return home from this annual commemoration without leaving a lasting footprint in the Solomon Island sand.
Five Things to Know About China’s Armed Forces
The People’s Liberation Army, which celebrated its 96th birthday on August 1, is one of the largest, most potent and fast-growing militaries in the world. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made it a goal for the PLA to “modernize” by 2035 and to be a “world-class” military power by mid-century. In 2014, China’s Navy overtook the U.S. Navy to become the largest military fleet in the world — although the U.S. Navy is still considered to be more powerful. While China is notoriously opaque about its level of defense spending, it is widely believed that China has the largest defense budget in the world other than the United States.
Will Voters or the Courts Choose Guatemala's Next President?
Guatemalans head to the polls on August 20 to vote in a presidential run-off election. Both candidates come from the country’s center-left: Sandra Torres is a veteran campaigner, who has run for president twice before. Bernardo Arévalo leads a relatively new party whose surprisingly strong showing in the first-round vote propelled him into the runoff for the first time.
Liberia Shows a Path Toward Democracy in West Africa
Liberia’s presidential inauguration last week, a peaceful transfer of power between opposed political parties, strengthens its postwar democracy — an achievement that we should highlight as an instructive counterpoint to West Africa’s military coups and other erosions of democracy. While 5 million Liberians confront crises including poverty, corruption and poor infrastructure, their progress in stabilizing from decades of war offers lessons for us all. Liberians’ vital strengths in this peaceful transfer include strong political will, reflected in record voter turnout, and a potent civic history of nonviolent movements for change, buttressed by U.S. support in countering corruption.