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Myanmar’s Junta Is Losing Control of Its Border with China

Myanmar’s Junta Is Losing Control of Its Border with China

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Myanmar’s military has lost control of substantial sections of the country’s border with China in recent days, as forces fighting the coup regime coordinate their attacks in an unprecedented way. The immediate aim of the combined offensive was to shut down lucrative criminal activity in enclaves along the Chinese frontier that are run by military-sponsored border guard forces. Significantly, in doing so, the insurgents took advantage of China’s recent efforts to stifle scams run from the enclaves that target Chinese citizens. This could mark a turning point in the national struggle against military rule, one that would pose serious new challenges to the anti-coup leadership, the international community and Myanmar’s neighbors.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

We Shouldn’t Fear a Resistance Victory in Myanmar

We Shouldn’t Fear a Resistance Victory in Myanmar

Thursday, November 16, 2023

As the national uprising against Myanmar’s coup regime has gained strength, a singular question has hovered over the widening campaign: If this patchwork of ethnic armed groups, deposed elected leaders, activists and armed defense forces manages to topple the junta, would they be able to govern, or would the country descend into greater chaos?

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionDemocracy & Governance

Civil War Pushes Sudan to the Brink of Humanitarian Disaster

Civil War Pushes Sudan to the Brink of Humanitarian Disaster

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Away from the headlines dominated by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, a civil war between Sudan’s military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is pushing the country to the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. As an allegedly genocidal RSF gains the upper hand, a U.N. official has warned that Sudan is “facing a convergence of a worsening humanitarian calamity and a catastrophic human rights crisis.”

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionHuman Rights

For Peace in the Sahel, Can the U.S. Work with Algeria?

For Peace in the Sahel, Can the U.S. Work with Algeria?

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Amid the Sahel region’s crises — a continent-spanning web of communal and terrorist insurgencies and eight coups d’etat since 2020 — U.S. and European attention is focused elsewhere: on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s expanding global influence and the Israel-Palestine conflict. But an opportunity to promote stabilization in the Sahel, notably in Mali and Niger, could be U.S. collaboration with Algeria. Algeria shares borders with those violence-stricken states, and also the U.S. desire to help stabilize them and their Sahel neighbors. A first question for any joint U.S-Algerian engagement is whether the two countries’ visions for Sahel stability, particularly in Mali and Niger, are aligned or contradictory.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

The Unsustainable Exploitation of Solomon Islands’ Natural Resources

The Unsustainable Exploitation of Solomon Islands’ Natural Resources

Thursday, November 30, 2023

The extractive industry in Solomon Islands serves as a crucial catalyst for economic growth and development, tapping into the nation's abundant natural resources like timber, minerals and fisheries for export — mainly to China. But despite its promise for economic prosperity, the extractive industry poses significant challenges, requiring careful management to ensure sustainability and minimize adverse effects on the environment and local communities.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionEnvironment

How the Taliban Enables Violence Against Women

How the Taliban Enables Violence Against Women

Thursday, December 7, 2023

In just 28 months, the Taliban have dismantled Afghan women’s and girls’ rights — imposing draconian restrictions regarding their education, employment and freedom of movement. Any perceived violation of these oppressive policies is often met with harassment, intimidation, and verbal and physical abuse orchestrated by the Taliban’s Ministry of Vice and Virtue. And when women are detained by authorities, they have been subjected to cruel treatment, including torture.

Type: Analysis

GenderConflict Analysis & Prevention

Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously

Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously

Friday, December 15, 2023

The historically fraught relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is deteriorating once again. A seemingly momentous peace deal that brought the two sides together in 2018 now appears to have been a brief interlude in a longer arc of enduring rivalry. The sources of recent tension include Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s public posturing around sea access and dynamics seeded by the 2018 peace deal itself. Neither side can afford escalation, but open conflict remains a possibility and even outcomes well short of direct hostilities — perhaps a return to the “no war, no peace” situation of preceding decades — would be disastrous for the two nations and the broader region.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

The Myanmar Army’s War Against Mental Health and Psychosocial Support

The Myanmar Army’s War Against Mental Health and Psychosocial Support

Thursday, January 11, 2024

After nearly 75 years of sustained conflict, Myanmar’s population has suffered devastating and compounding intergenerational trauma. But rather than address that collective trauma, successive military governments have terrorized the country while also disinvesting from systems of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS).

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Six Dilemmas Facing Egypt

Six Dilemmas Facing Egypt

Thursday, January 18, 2024

Since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, Egypt has been heavily involved in efforts to end the military confrontations and wars that have periodically broken out in Gaza. However, the scope, scale and stakes of the current war is unlike any prior round of hostilities. In response to the massacre and hostage-taking of mostly Israeli civilians by Hamas and other militant armed groups during their devastating attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Israel has launched one of the most destructive wars in its history. Indeed, this war will be transformational in numerous ways, with ramifications for several stakeholders beyond the parties themselves.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Tensions over Taiwan Rise with Tsai’s U.S. Stopover

Tensions over Taiwan Rise with Tsai’s U.S. Stopover

Thursday, March 30, 2023

President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan transits this week through the United States, stopping in New York on her way to Guatemala and Belize, and in California on her way home. Tsai has made six stopovers since she took office in 2016, but this is the first since July 2019. The stopovers are not official visits, but Tsai is expected to meet Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy in California. Beijing has made it known it fiercely opposes the stopover and threatened to retaliate if McCarthy and Tsai meet.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention