In a year marked by rising conflict and instability, USIP’s experts analyzed some of the world’s most pressing peace and security challenges. Check out the highlights:
China’s Regional Aggression and Global Ambition
China ratcheted up military pressure over the last year as Taiwan’s new president attempted to pursue a tough-but-not-provocative approach to cross-Strait relations. However, the immense cost of an actual military campaign against Taiwan may dissuade China from escalating to open conflict, at least in the short term. Meanwhile, China continued to provoke hostilities with the Philippines in the South China Sea. An ambiguous deal has seemingly tempered tensions for now, but China’s maritime aggression has prompted the U.S., Japan and the Philippines to strengthen ties to counter Beijing.
From the expansion of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to new security engagement in Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Africa, to Middle East diplomacy, China’s Xi Jinping has made no attempt to hide his desire to reshape global systems and norms. This has increasingly placed Beijing in direct strategic competition with the West over everything from critical mineral supply chains to influence in Latin America and the Pacific Islands to dominance over global information technology. Despite both Washington and Beijing indicating a desire to stabilize ties, managing tensions will prove to be one of the defining challenges of this new multipolar era.
Other highlights include:
- Ukraine: The Inflection Point in the China-Russia Axis
- In the Pacific, U.S. Risks Letting Down its Closest Partners
- Boiling the Frog: China’s Incrementalist Maritime Expansion
- Report of the Expert Study Group on NATO and Indo-Pacific Partners
For more on U.S.-China competition, join USIP and its partners for “Passing the Baton 2025: Securing America’s Future in an Era of Strategic Competition.”
The Middle East in Crisis
The Middle East was engulfed in turmoil throughout the last year, with the prospect of a wider regional conflict seemingly just around the corner on numerous occasions. While tensions threatened to boil over in a new escalatory cycle of attacks between Israel and Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, Iran and others, the one-year anniversary of Hamas’ October 7 assault on Israel came and went without an end in sight for the crisis — setting the stage for a pivotal year ahead for the Middle East.
Adding to the region’s complexity was the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. This monumental development upended not just Syria’s future, but has forced Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, the Gulf states and other regional players to contend with what a post-Assad Syria might mean for their own trajectory and relationships in the region.
Other highlights include:
- Western Sahara’s conflict is over. Negotiating the terms comes next.
- 10 Years After ISIS’s Genocide, Iraq Is Still Dealing with the Human Legacies
- Six Dilemmas Facing Egypt
Around Asia: Crime, Counterterrorism and Upheaval
In recent years, transnational crime has flourished in Southeast Asia, where online scam compounds operating in poorly governed areas are raking in an estimated $64 billion a year from victims across the globe — including the United States. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s resistance has made major gains against the military. But neighboring China spent much of the year strategically asserting influence to protect its own interests in the fractured nation, prompting concerns for Myanmar’s trajectory going forward.
An “accidental” revolution managed to topple the Bangladeshi government, opening the door for either much-needed democratic reforms or even further turmoil. India’s surprising election results dealt a blow to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but Delhi continued to advance its partnership with the U.S. while mending fences with China and maintaining its posture of strategic autonomy. In Sri Lanka, the election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake represented a clear break from the country’s old guard political parties.
Other highlights include:
- Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Final Report
- Where is Afghanistan Three Years into Taliban Rule?
- Back to the Future? Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Choice
Ukraine War Grinds On
As the war’s third anniversary approaches, Putin has made clear he’s committed to a long conflict with the introduction of North Korean soldiers on Russia’s front lines. Ukraine executed a dramatic incursion into Russian territory earlier this year in a bid to shake up the grinding status quo. The war continues to weigh on relations between major global powers as China seeks to balance its deepening ties with Russia with its desire to be seen as a peacemaker in the conflict. Meanwhile, Ukraine has managed to garner more international support for its vision to end the war. But whether 2025 will give way to lasting peace rests on Russia’s willingness to negotiate and the contours of any Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
Other highlights include:
- The Future of the Security Sector in Ukraine
- Modi Walks a Diplomatic Tightrope in Ukraine
- Diplomacy May Not Be as Dead as It Seems
Latin America: A Mixed Year for Democracy
Hopes for a return to democracy in Venezuela were dashed by Maduro’s disputed claim to victory in last year’s elections, sending the country back to square one. Meanwhile, Central American countries have continued to struggle with addressing crime and upholding democracy, with El Salvador’s Bukele going so far to place security above human rights in the country’s fight to contain gang violence. Honduras struggled to get its democratic house in order. However, Bernardo Arévalo’s inauguration in Guatemala signaled a renewed hope that regional trends toward authoritarianism and democratic decline can be reversed. In Haiti, gangs still control most of the capital, and the interim government’s stumbles in recent months have threatened to undo overlooked progress toward a democratic future.
Other highlights include:
- Four Questions that Could Determine Haiti’s Future
- Can Bolivia Avoid Renewed Election Violence in 2025?
- From Dams to Data: China’s Shifting Interests in Central America
Africa’s Year of Turmoil and Promise
Throughout West Africa and the Sahel, the spate of coups in recent years continued to rattle the region as military regimes split from regional bodies such as ECOWAS. In Sudan, the civil war drags on amid the country’s immense humanitarian crisis, threatening broader regional instability and prompting a discussion on shifting the international community’s priorities toward protecting civilians. Despite these alarming trends, there were also positive developments on the continent as well: Liberia, Senegal and several other countries helped demonstrate democracy’s resilience against threats to security and stability. Meanwhile, projects such as the Lobito Corridor have strengthened the push for mutually beneficial U.S.-Africa partnerships as competition for critical mineral supply lines heats up.
Other highlights include:
- Critical Minerals in Africa: Final Report
- America’s Vital 21st-Century ‘Partnership with Africa’ — and Kenya’s Key Role
- Nigeria at a Crossroads: Navigating Protests Amid Elections
Global Peace and Security Issues
USIP’s experts analyzed other important geopolitical and conflict trends and their impact on peace and security:
- What an ICC Case on Mali Means for Prosecuting Taliban Gender Crimes
- A Delicate Balance: Promoting Nuclear Energy While Preventing Proliferation
- How U.S. Leadership Can Elevate the Food-Climate-Security Nexus
- How Disruptive Technologies Are Changing Peace and Security
- Protecting Water Infrastructure During War
- To Address Sexual Violence in Conflict, Don’t Overlook People with Disabilities