U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: Joining us now is Mona Yacoubian, who is the USIP Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa. Mona joins us now on a new op ed that was written in The New York Times about the fall of Assad and how it has changed the future of the Middle East. Good morning to you, Mona. How are you?

Mona Yacoubian: Good morning, Laura, I'm well. How are you?

Laura Coates: I'm doing great, glad that you are with us here today. Well, the fall of Assad, a 50-year rule of that family in Syria, where he's now been able to secure political asylum in Russia, although there seems to be some tension now with how long he will remain in the graces of one Vladimir Putin, knowing that he is no longer the useful strategic geographical partner. Let's talk about that collapse of that regime, because you say, it not only upends decades of the rule in Syria, but it also promises to realign power across the Middle East.

Mona Yacoubian: Absolutely. I mean, we're witnessing nothing short of a tectonic shift in power in Syria, but we're seeing that tectonic shift have real reverberations across the Middle East. Laura, if you think about where Syria is located in the strategic heart of the region, we're seeing as a result, all kinds of new dynamics, all kinds of power realignments. We're seeing Iran in particular, take a huge hit. And we're seeing Turkey, which is on Syria's northern border, positioned to be to come out of this as a real winner, just as two examples,

Laura Coates: When you look at, there was Syria's nearly 14-year civil war, there were no fewer than six foreign militaries engaged in conflict, and so you're talking about the geostrategic stakes that are obviously there and at play. Iran stands out among them. Are there countries in particular that are going to have the ability to either seize on this collapse, or will be most hurt by it?

Mona Yacoubian: Well, again, let's start for a second with Iran, because I think for Iran is, in many ways, I'd say, hands down, the biggest loser. This is a country that spent billions of dollars in Syria. They've mobilized tens of thousands of fighters to try to prop up Assad, Syria was its geographic land bridge to Hezbollah, its key partner, Shiite militia in Lebanon, in the region. All of this now lost to Iran. Turkey, on the other hand, I think really is positioned to be a big winner. They have ties to the Syrian rebel groups that have coalesced to take power in Syria, and we're already seeing Turkey sort of convey influence. The first country to send a senior official to Damascus is Turkey. They've reopened their embassy in Damascus after 12 years, and they have real influence with these groups, and I think are poised to really shape the landscape of a future Syria.

Laura Coates: By contrast, talk to me about Turkey.

Mona Yacoubian: Well, no Turkey, I think is Turkey, as I said, is in a key position here, I think, if we look, I think the country, actually that's kind of interesting to watch in all of this is Israel, because here the bag is very mixed. You know, on the one hand, Israel has really seen its major threat, on its border, by posed by Iran and Hezbollah neutralized. But on the other hand, the group that has taken the biggest amount of power in Syria was, we're still waiting to see, by the way, how power is consolidated in Syria. But this group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, it's a former Al Qaeda affiliate, and so for Israel, I think the idea of having a former al Qaeda affiliate based in Damascus is a bit concerning, to say the least. So we're seeing Israel now proactively take steps to secure its borders, to protect itself. They've taken, you know, hundreds of strikes against key strategic targets in Syria, and they've also mobilized forces into the demilitarized zone of the Golan in Syria. So we're watching Israel, I think, very closely to see how it manages some of these changes.

Laura Coates: Those proactive measures, the deployment in these demilitarized buffer zones, or the, strikes against strategic targets in Syria. Is this, in the long run, going to create a sense of safety and security for Israel? Obviously, the new reality being that mixed blessing you described, or is there a lot more to be done?

Mona Yacoubian: Well, I don't know that there's more to be done. I think that it's, a very delicate line that they are walking. We're already seeing some criticism of Israel by this very new power, new government that hasn't really even formed in Syria. They are not interested in conflict with Israel, but are noting that if these strikes continue, that's going to become problematic. We're seeing the UN criticize Israel, and we're seeing Arab states surrounding Syria also raise concerns about some of Israel's moves. So I think this is going to bear very close watching over the coming months to see how it all plays out.

Laura Coates: You've described your New York Times piece that in neighboring Lebanon, the tenor of the post aside, transition will be a make-or-break moment. Can you describe how so?

Mona Yacoubian: Yeah. So Lebanon really has a lot at stake here. It's a country that itself is suffering from significant conflict with Israel that has now been brought to a quieting with a ceasefire last month. It's a country that's been in the midst of significant crisis over the economic crisis over the past several years, and it hosts, per capita, the largest number of Syrian refugees. So if things go well in Syria, if there is a consolidation of power and a smooth transition, and Syrian refugees in Lebanon are able to return, that would be a boon for Lebanon, that would really help Lebanon stabilize, and interestingly enough, it may even itself become a source of jobs and business for Lebanon as Syria begins the long, long and very expensive challenge of reconstruction. But on the other hand, if things go badly in Syria, if we see that the rebels aren't able to consolidate power, if we see a descent into chaos, and frankly, more refugees from Syria going into Lebanon, that's going to be very bad news for Lebanon.

Laura Coates: Well, let's talk about just the idea of Syria's strategic significance and its impact on global power dynamics. I briefly mentioned the relationship between Assad and Putin, but the defeat and fall of this regime is even beyond that,

Mona Yacoubian: Absolutely, I mean, I think, you know, we can see that the stakes in Syria aren't just regional, they're global. So Russia had been a major supporter of the regime, as you noted, and we see that Bashar  al-Assad, the deposed dictator, is now in Moscow. Russia has taken a huge loss, though, in this it had military bases in Syria, not clear if it's going to be able to maintain those bases. Regardless, it's very, very clear that Russia's influence in the Middle East has taken a huge hit. The other key player here is the United States. We maintain a small military force in northeast Syria of around 900 forces. They're there to prevent the resurgence of ISIS, which is a whole other challenge in Syria, and you know, for the US, I think this is, on balance, a very good outcome, seeing Assad deposed. But there are going to be challenges going forward. What's the nature of this new government in Syria? How will they govern? And you know, what are the prospects for an ISIS resurgence? How does the US seek to leverage its forces and influence to ensure against that?

Laura Coates: Does the change of our administration impact at all the way in which this may play out? Is it as consequential as, say, other nations, where they are reliant on United States funding or our influence and positioning.

Mona Yacoubian: Well, I think it's obviously this. The new administration has yet to come into power, and we're going to have to wait and see what happens. The stakes in Syria are the stakes regardless of which administration is seated in Washington. And so, I think we're going to have to wait and see what happens, and you know whether or not there are moves afoot to either pull out of Syria, which is certainly something that President Trump had done in his previous administration. But we're also seeing early indications from his National Security Advisor, for example, noting the importance of Syria and the importance of the US mission to prevent the resurgence of ISIS

Laura Coates: Really important to hear your perspective this morning. Mona Yacoubian, USIP’s Vice President of Middle East and North Africa. The piece is available right now, it's called Al-Assad. Fall has changed the Middle East forever. It's available in The New York Times right now. Thank you so much your insight, Mona.

Mona Yacoubian: Thank you, Laura.