Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and has expanded into a conflict on a scale unseen in Europe since World War II, with Vladimir Putin’s rule central to rising global threats to peace and stability. Focusing on Russia and Ukraine and working closely with the Institute’s China program, USIP’s Russia and Europe Center, established in 2020, provides research and analysis on the growing impact of these dangers. The center makes recommendations to the U.S. government regarding Russia’s challenge to the rules-based international order and conducts specialized work on Track 2 dialogues to promote eventual reconciliation and reconstruction. The center also hopes to begin a program to combat gender-based violence in the region.

The Center leads the Institute’s long-standing engagements on:

Strategic Stability

This program seeks to advance strategic stability at a time of flux in the international system — with heightened tensions between Washington and Moscow, the emergence of China and return of great power competition more generally, and the development of new lethal high technology and cyber weapons unregulated by the traditional arms control architecture. Overt Russian nuclear threats in the early days of its invasion of Ukraine have underscored the importance of such an effort and highlighted the need for a renewed focus on these issues. At present, the center analyzes the impact of nuclear, space, hypersonic and other emerging technologies. Working closely with the USIP Asia team, we also examine whether and how to include China in appropriate elements of an updated arms control regime.

Russia’s Role in International Conflict

In 2021, USIP established a program to analyze Russian kinetic and non-kinetic efforts to expand its influence through military operations, sowing disinformation through mass and social media, undermining democratic electoral processes, and fostering corruption. This program aims to better understand how Russia works to destabilize neighboring states — as well as weaker or fragile states in the Middle East, Africa and the Western Hemisphere — and provide avenues for reducing those risks and strengthening those countries’ resilience. Drawing upon USIP’s deep involvement in many regions where Russia is active, the center is developing a robust set of tools and a methodology to identify and assess the levels of Russian involvement in USIP-priority countries and violence-afflicted states, to examine the most effective ways these countries can counter Russian influence, and to deter conflict. The center pays particular attention to how the war in Ukraine, the erosion of the Russian economy as a result of the war and Western sanctions alter the Kremlin’s practice of such activities overseas, especially in Africa and the South Caucasus.

Seeking Peace in Ukraine

Since 2017, this program has offered independent analysis and used its specialized capacity for unofficial dialogue to strengthen options for a peaceful resolution of the Russia-led conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region. In 2021-2022, the Institute partnered with Ukrainian organizations to conduct a dialogue between communities across the front line of the war. This project is built on local relationships and experience in reconciliation that will be critical for the success of any eventual peace accord.

Since the renewed Russian invasion in February 2022, the center has been leading expert working groups to provide recommendations for an end to the war. We will also convene a working group to examine the current European security architecture now under threat, consider the factors that have shaped it, and explore opportunities for new structures and processes to prevent, mitigate and resolve future conflict in Europe. Meanwhile, the center is collaborating with relevant USIP units, external partners and the United Nation on reconstruction and accountability for war crimes. We will continue working with Ukrainian NGOs to strengthen dialogue between communities and displaced persons to foster reconciliation and reconstruction.

Current Projects

The Current Situation in Ukraine

The Current Situation in Ukraine

Russia’s massive assault on an independent Ukraine menaces not only Eastern Europe, but the human effort, since World War II, to build global peace through the international rule of law. USIP provides analysis and support for policies that can help sustain the democracy, dialogue and diplomacy that will be required to ultimately defeat this threat.

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Featured Publications

Dislodging Putin’s Foothold in the Balkans

Dislodging Putin’s Foothold in the Balkans

Thursday, June 1, 2023

By: Harun Karčić;  Peter Mandaville, Ph.D.

The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the Balkans can only be understood by considering Moscow’s malign influence in the region from a broader perspective. While Russia has specific objectives related to each individual country in the region, its overall objective is clearly to target the Western Balkans through a divide and rule approach, using multiple tools of influence. While the United States and its European partners focus on the war in Ukraine, Russia is taking the opportunity to nibble away at NATO’s borders and to sow discord in countries hoping to some day present a strong case for joining the European Union.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global Policy

The United States Should Lead the Push for Peace in Ukraine

The United States Should Lead the Push for Peace in Ukraine

Thursday, May 25, 2023

By: Mary Glantz, Ph.D.

Recent weeks have witnessed several calls for peace in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy just wrapped up appearances at the G7 Summit and the Arab League, urging support for his country’s peace plan. China recently followed up the release of its February 2023 peace plan by sending its top diplomat, Wang Yi, on a European tour and dispatched peace envoy Li Hiu last week to Ukraine, Poland, Germany, France and Russia. At no time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has there been so much momentum toward a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. The United States should seize this opportunity to play a leading role.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global Policy

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