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Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously

Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously

Friday, December 15, 2023

The historically fraught relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is deteriorating once again. A seemingly momentous peace deal that brought the two sides together in 2018 now appears to have been a brief interlude in a longer arc of enduring rivalry. The sources of recent tension include Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s public posturing around sea access and dynamics seeded by the 2018 peace deal itself. Neither side can afford escalation, but open conflict remains a possibility and even outcomes well short of direct hostilities — perhaps a return to the “no war, no peace” situation of preceding decades — would be disastrous for the two nations and the broader region.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Civil War Pushes Sudan to the Brink of Humanitarian Disaster

Civil War Pushes Sudan to the Brink of Humanitarian Disaster

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Away from the headlines dominated by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, a civil war between Sudan’s military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is pushing the country to the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. As an allegedly genocidal RSF gains the upper hand, a U.N. official has warned that Sudan is “facing a convergence of a worsening humanitarian calamity and a catastrophic human rights crisis.”

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionHuman Rights

Indonesia and the U.S. Strengthen Ties under Cloud of Gaza War

Indonesia and the U.S. Strengthen Ties under Cloud of Gaza War

Wednesday, November 15, 2023

U.S. President Joe Biden and Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced a new comprehensive strategic partnership when the two leaders met at the White House on November 13. The Indonesian leader, popularly known as Jokowi, said he hoped the partnership will “contribute to regional and global peace and prosperity.” The White House meeting took place ahead of Biden’s highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco on November 15. However, Jokowi’s call for the United States to do more to end the war in the Gaza Strip dominated the headlines coming out of the meeting.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Israel-Hamas War Divides Latin America Along Partisan Lines

Israel-Hamas War Divides Latin America Along Partisan Lines

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

As casualties mount in the Israel-Hamas conflict, many Latin American leaders are intensifying their criticism of the Israeli government. Bolivia recently became the first country to sever ties with Israel; Chile, Colombia and Honduras recalled their ambassadors for consultations; and diplomats from Argentina, Brazil and Mexico have blasted Israel for the bloodshed, calling for an immediate end to hostilities.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

La guerra entre Israel y Hamas divide a América Latina a través de líneas partidistas

La guerra entre Israel y Hamas divide a América Latina a través de líneas partidistas

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

A medida que aumentan las bajas civiles en el conflicto entre Israel y Hamás, muchos líderes latinoamericanos están intensificando sus críticas al gobierno israelí. Bolivia recientemente se convirtió en el primer país en romper relaciones con Israel; Chile, Colombia y Honduras llamaron a sus embajadores para consultas; y diplomáticos de Argentina, Brasil y México han condenado a Israel por su violencia, exigiendo un cese inmediato de las hostilidades.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Amid War in the Middle East, India-Israel Ties Reach New Milestone

Amid War in the Middle East, India-Israel Ties Reach New Milestone

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

India’s official response to the Israel-Hamas war reflects a meaningful and likely durable strategic tilt toward Israel by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Yet India’s shift should not be misinterpreted as a broader alignment with the United States or any other “camp” in this bitter contest. The maxim that Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has repeated in other fraught geopolitical contexts holds equally true for India’s stance in the Middle East: “Do not think it’s necessary for India to join any axis. India is entitled to make its own choices which will be a balance of its values and interests.”

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

How the Israel-Hamas War Impacts Regional Relations

How the Israel-Hamas War Impacts Regional Relations

Monday, October 23, 2023

Hours before President Biden was to land in Israel last week, a missile hit Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza, killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in one of the deadliest incidents since this war began. This horrific incident points to a war that is of a different scale and significance than many previous rounds of violent confrontation and that will have reverberations throughout the Middle East. In recent days, tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets in rage and world leaders are calling for the protection of civilians and an immediate cease-fire in the face of the siege and escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza, resulting in life-threatening shortages of water, electricity, fuel, food and life-saving medical supplies.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

After Six Months of Civil War, What’s the State of Play in Sudan?

After Six Months of Civil War, What’s the State of Play in Sudan?

Thursday, October 19, 2023

What started as clashes in Khartoum this April between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has devolved into a civil war. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who leads the SAF, and his former deputy, the RSF’s General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, had worked together in toppling the Bashir regime in 2019 and orchestrating a military coup in 2021. But tensions over how the RSF would integrate into the SAF eventually led to fighting that has metastasized over the last six months. Caught in the crossfire are Sudanese civilians, who are experiencing a growing humanitarian crisis.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

In Northeast India, Manipur’s Violence Echoes Sudan’s Darfur

In Northeast India, Manipur’s Violence Echoes Sudan’s Darfur

Thursday, October 12, 2023

Rising violence this year threatens to deepen instability in India’s far northeastern region. Ominously, the bloodshed centered in India’s state of Manipur includes elements that were visible in early stages of the 20-year-old conflict in Sudan’s Darfur region. Darfur’s violence has killed or displaced millions of people and helped lead to this year’s civil war across Sudan. Tragically, both countries have seen these disparate conflicts intensify through widened opportunities for ill-governed ethnic militias and for hate speech. These evolutions have hardened local conflicts over land or water into more extreme, venomous warfare between ethnic or religious communities. Darfur’s example underscores the urgent need for responses in Manipur.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionViolent Extremism

Is a Saudi-Israel Normalization Agreement on the Horizon?

Is a Saudi-Israel Normalization Agreement on the Horizon?

Thursday, September 28, 2023

In recent months, a drumbeat has built around the U.S. effort to negotiate a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The deal would be a tectonic shift in Middle East geopolitics, but also carries major implications for other actors beyond the three negotiating parties. Israel would, of course, benefit from normalized relations with the Saudis — long seen as the “holy grail” of potential normalization agreements for the country. The Saudis, in turn, would see their interests advanced through strengthened U.S partnership in key areas. But this deal could also have serious implications for the future of the Palestinian national movement and, further afield, for the role of China in the Middle East.

Type: Analysis

Peace Processes