Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
How Fumio Kishida Shaped Japan’s Foreign Policy
Earlier this month, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made the surprise announcement that he would not seek another term. Although he was prime minister for less than four years, Kishida’s foreign policy legacy spans strategic and tactical advances in Japan’s defense and diplomatic posture. His approach represented both a continuation of and divergence from the legacy of his former boss, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, under whom Kishida acted as Japan’s longest-serving foreign minister. Although Kishida’s successes on foreign affairs were overshadowed by domestic political scandals involving his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), as well as lack-luster economic growth, he oversaw increases in Japan’s reputation and popularity in the region and globally, as well as the institutionalization of related partnership gains.
Why Is the U.S. Deploying Long-Range Missiles in Germany?
On the sidelines of last month’s NATO summit, the United States and Germany announced that Washington will begin episodic deployments of long-range conventional capabilities to Germany. In 1987, the United States and Soviet Union agreed to eliminate these systems under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, but Russia’s violations led the United States to withdraw from the treaty in 2019. Three years later, Russia invaded Ukraine and has engaged in nuclear saber-rattling since then. Washington plans to deploy these systems to strengthen deterrence, but Moscow has criticized them.
Southeast Asia Web Scams Reach U.S., Setting Off Alarms for Law Enforcement
From their base in ungoverned stretches of Southeast Asia, international criminal networks are prowling the Internet, seeking to defraud victims around the world with sophisticated and psychologically devastating scams. Gangsters operating out of Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos, relying on forced labor, have spread their tentacles through Asia, Africa and Latin America and increasingly within the United States, stripping gullible prey of at least $64 billion annually. Clearly, to eradicate such a global menace will require a coordinated international response. Even so, the United States is not internally powerless to confront this striking example of how conflict and corrupt governance in distant parts of the world can directly threaten Americans’ security and well-being.
Is Southeast Asia’s Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone the Key to Indo-Pacific Stability?
Over five decades into the “Asian peace,” there are reasons to be pessimistic about the future security of the Indo-Pacific. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ignited concerns of conflict in Asia and Moscow’s nuclear threats have unearthed the specter of nuclear war as China rapidly augments its nuclear capabilities. An escalating arms race between the U.S. and China will inevitably leave non-nuclear weapon states caught in the middle. But all is not lost. In Asia, there are existing security mechanisms that could be revitalized to reinforce strategic stability. One of those mechanisms is the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ).
Russia’s War and China’s Rise Set a New Path for South Korea-NATO Relations
July 2024 marked the third time South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol joined a NATO summit along with the leaders of the alliance’s other Indo-Pacific partner countries (Australia, Japan and New Zealand), informally known as the IP4. This represents a new phase in South Korea’s relations with the Atlantic alliance, but building a lasting friendship will take time and requires navigating a series of challenges. Amid an emerging global division of democratic and authoritarian camps and the challenges posed by China and Russia for both the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions, it is incumbent on both Brussels and Seoul to build a more cooperative relationship. That journey, however, has just begun.
Bangladesh’s Revolution Remains Unfinished
On August 5, a student-led revolution toppled Bangladesh’s increasingly repressive prime minister, Sheikh Hasina. After 15 years in power, her government’s sudden and improbable collapse creates the possibility for a new era in Bangladesh. Democratic champions are reinvigorated, but instability and violence will grow in the near term and countervailing forces will likely emerge to blunt progress. Bangladesh’s revolutionary moment is not yet a revolution. Only sustained and deliberate political reform can finish what the students started. The United States can help.
Ukraine’s Pivot Changes the Narrative in Russia’s war; Outcome Remains Unclear
Almost 30 months into Vladimir Putin’s brutalization of Ukraine with a full-scale invasion that has pulverized vast swaths of its farmlands, towns and cities, Ukrainians have surprised Putin and the world by driving the war back into Russia — a move that, if nothing else, has altered the current narrative around this conflict. Ukraine has again brandished its determination, initiative and innovation, effectively resetting assumptions in its defense against its much larger attacker. The possible outcomes of Ukraine’s strike remain varied and unpredictable — and its eventual implications will rest on the evolutions of several questions, both military and political.
In Venezuela, Nonviolent Action Is Key to a Negotiated Democratic Transition
On July 28, Venezuela held one of the most consequential elections in its history. The country’s political opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado, overcame popular disillusionment, political divides and a rigged electoral system to earn a landslide victory for its unity candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia. According to one civil society group, estimates “extrapolated from the official vote count receipts” from a representative sample of local voting centers give González 66% of the vote. Venezuela’s opposition met the moment with an inspired pro-democracy campaign.
En Venezuela, la acción no violenta es clave para una transición democrática negociada
El 28 de julio, Venezuela celebró una de las elecciones más importantes de su historia. La oposición política del país, liderada por María Corina Machado, superó la desilusión popular, las divisiones políticas y un sistema electoral amañado para obtener una aplastante victoria para su candidato de unidad, Edmundo González Urrutia. Según un grupo de la sociedad civil, los cálculos «extrapolados de los recibos oficiales del conteo de votos» de una muestra representativa de centros de votación locales otorgan a González el 66% de los votos. La oposición venezolana respondió al momento con una inspirada campaña prodemocracia.
Myanmar’s Resistance Is Making Major Advances
The resistance’s capture of the northern city of Lashio on August 3 marks a watershed moment in Myanmar’s conflict. After a month of fierce fighting, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and allied resistance forces captured this crucial stronghold in northern Shan State, dealing a severe blow to the beleaguered junta. This represents more than just the loss of a major city. It is the first time that a military regional command has been captured by resistance forces.