Joseph Sany on the Rwanda-DRC Conflict and the Risk of Regional War

After decades of poor governance, ethnic tensions and illegal resource exploitation in the mineral-rich eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwandan-backed rebels’ capture of Goma “has the potential to bring … seven countries into [the] conflict” and ignite a wider regional war, says USIP’s Joseph Sany.

U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: Joining us now. Joseph Sany is the vice president of the USIP’s Africa Center and joins us now to talk about the latest about the Democratic Republic of Congo and why Americans should care. Joseph, welcome back and good morning. How are you?

Joseph Sany: Good! Thank you for having me, Laura, and thank you for raising this issue.

Laura Coates: Let's talk about what happened on January 27th. I knew that Rwandan-backed rebels known as M23 captured Goma, the largest city in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and that was despite the presence of UN peacekeeping forces and defense forces. Tell me the significance of this moment.

Joseph Sany: Yes, this was a shocking move by the urban movement known as M23 backed by the Rwandans. It's shocking because Goma is the largest city in eastern Congo, and unfortunately, during that incursion, in fact, that occupation 3,000 almost 3,000 lives were lost. Hundreds of women were raped, and more than a million people displaced. So, this is a grave time for the region, because that can spill over to many other regional, neighboring countries and lead to a massive and alarming level of humanitarian crisis. So, it's a really watershed moment in that part of the world.

Laura Coates: I mean, this conflict in eastern DRC, it's being fueled by, I understand, the illegal exploitation of natural resources. This has been occurring for decades. You've described it as a resource curse.

Joseph Sany: Yes, as we know, DRC is home to many, a lot of critical minerals, important for our defense base, importance for, I mean if you own a cell phone, you have a piece of DRC in your pocket, as we speak. Unfortunately, those resources, as we see in the jargon, rather than fueling the development and the peace in that part of the world, has actually led to a resource curse. Appetites by multiple actors, state and non-state actors, are driven in DRC-Congo to illegally explore those minerals, and the civilian population bear the brunt of that illegal exploitation and by the way, even our strategic adversary, like China, is also involved in that game. And so unfortunately, then this and combined to that, is not just a resource curse, but it's also poor governance in Congo itself. As we know for the past decades, Congo is engulfed by political instability, poor governance, corruptions, but also, unfortunately, ethnic tensions. There are tensions between several communities, particularly the Congolese, between the Congolese Tutsi and some other ethnic groups. Those tensions were exacerbated by the genocide in 1994, the Tutsi genocide of 1994 in Rwanda, where some of the genocide there moved into Congo. So, it's a cocktail of many things, resource curse  of course, but ethnic tensions, and poor governance.

Laura Coates: It seems that there's a serious risk of a regional war that could spread into neighboring countries. And I know Burundi has already mobilized, I think, 1,000s of soldiers along the border with the DRC. So what is needed and what, kind of diplomatic engagement could be effective here?

Joseph Sany: And you have said it, well, the stakes could not be higher. The first two wars in Congo were called the “African Wars” because just the sheer number of countries involved. And as you said, rightly, now with the advance of the M23 because they have, they are moving past Goma, moving down to south into Bukavu, and that has triggered the mobilization of the Burundian Army. By the way, South Africa lost, 14 or 12 South Africans were killed during the recent incursion. So, this has the potential to really bring more than seven countries into that conflict. So, what needs to happen now, of course, immediate diplomatic intervention is crucial. Beyond the alarming security and humanitarian situation, it is essential really to resume negotiation and work towards establishing a lasting ceasefire. What is needed in the short term, I will say, is the immediate cessation of hostilities and put in place a ceasefire that will be enforced by also the international community and the neighboring countries and the regional players. I think to face the humanitarian crisis that is also important immediately, to reopen the Goma Airport, the largest city, to allow UN agencies and NGO to deliver essential aids. People are dying Laura, people are dying, women are being raped, people are hungry. So, it's important to open those humanitarian corridors as we speak and stop the fighting, at least to allow us to get in.

Laura Coates: It sounds particularly dire. Thank you so much for raising our awareness of this issue. Joseph Sany, vice president of the USIP’s Africa Center. Thank you for this conversation.

Joseph Sany: Thank you, Laura, for raising this issue. Thank you.


PHOTO: On Peace podcast logo

The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s).

PUBLICATION TYPE: Podcast