Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
As Hezbollah-Israel Tensions Simmer, Lebanon’s Domestic Crises Drag On
Nearly six months after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, tensions in two key flashpoints — Lebanon and Syria — continue to rise with significant Israeli airstrikes in both countries, leading to the highest death tolls in each country since October 7. Amid these rising tensions, ongoing clashes between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) threaten to escalate into a wider war. At the same time, Lebanon continues to reel from a series of crises that have unfolded over the past four and a half years, highlighting Lebanon’s perilous position as the Gaza conflict continues to reverberate throughout the region.
Is the Middle East on the Verge of a Wider War?
Three months after the Hamas terror attack on Israel, reverberations from the ensuing conflict in Gaza threaten to engulf the region in a wider war.
Will the Israel-Hamas War Spiral into a Wider Conflict?
With the Israel-Hamas war poised to enter its fourth week, the conflict continues to escalate. The Israeli military announced on October 25 it had struck more than 7,000 targets inside Gaza, ranking the current military campaign among the most intense globally in recent memory. The conflict has resulted in an estimated 1,400 Israelis killed, according to Israeli government sources and more than 6,500 Gazans killed, according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry. More than 200 hostages are held captive in Gaza.
Mona Yacoubian on Arab Normalization with Syria’s Assad
Many Arab countries have concluded that President Bashar al-Assad is entrenched power and that they’ll need his cooperation to address challenges like refugees and the illicit drug trade. In Washington, there is no appetite to normalize with Assad. “I think ultimately what we see is just a fundamental tension between the need for accountability and fatigue in the region,” USIP’s Mona Yacoubian says.
Disengaging and Reintegrating Violent Extremists in Conflict Zones
Dealing with people who leave violent extremist groups has become one of the most pressing security issues of our time. Drawing on new primary research conducted by the author in Iraq, Syria, and Nigeria, and existing research on disengagement and reintegration, this report underscores the challenges of administering rehabilitation programs in conditions of chronic insecurity—and of doing so at a scale sufficient to make a difference to hundreds or even thousands of people in short order.
Syria’s Stalemate Has Only Benefitted Assad and His Backers
Twelve years into Syria’s devastating civil war, the conflict appears to have settled into a frozen state. Although roughly 30% of the country is controlled by opposition forces, heavy fighting has largely ceased and there is a growing regional trending toward normalizing relations with the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Over the last decade, the conflict erupted into one of the most complicated in the world, with a dizzying array of international and regional powers, opposition groups, proxies, local militias and extremist groups all playing a role.
Mona Yacoubian on the Assad Regime’s Hold in Syria
After 12 years of extraordinary brutality and humanitarian suffering, the Assad regime remains entrenched in Syria. With no solution in sight, there is regional momentum toward normalization as countries have “made the calculation that he’s here at least for the foreseeable future,” says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian.
Enormous Earthquakes Exacerbate Syria’s Humanitarian Crisis
A powerful earthquake, registering 7.8 on the Richter scale, struck Türkiye and Syria early Monday morning, with a 7.5 magnitude tremor and other aftershocks felt by countries around the region. Initial figures suggest that in Türkiye as many as 2,921 were killed and 13,293 injured, with 5,600 buildings collapsed. All told, the death toll in Türkiye and Syria stands at 4,300 but is likely to continue to rise. The epicenter of the quake was Türkiye’s southern city of Gaziantep, home to nearly half a million Syrian refugees forced from their homeland amid Syria’s devastating civil war. While the international community mobilized quickly to pledge assistance, aid delivery to Syria — already dealing with massive humanitarian challenges in both rebel- and regime-held areas — will be particularly complicated given the country’s ongoing conflict.
Mona Yacoubian on Russia’s Diminishing Role in Syria
Amid military struggles in Ukraine, Russia’s presence in Syria is slowly receding, setting off a series of regional shifts from Turkey, Iran and Israel that could have major ripple effects on U.S. national security interests, says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian: “There are too many actors there for it be a simple math equation.”
Event Extra: Syria’s Brutal Civil War and the Elusive Quest for Justice
In 2016, the U.N. General Assembly established the International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism for Syria (IIIM), after vetoes in the U.N. Security Council prevented referral of the Syrian situation to the International Criminal Court. IIIM Head Catherine Marchi-Uhel discusses the obstacles to this work, the progress made to date and what lessons it can provide for delivering accountability and justice in other conflicts.