Research & Analysis
U.S. Institute of Peace’s articles, reports, tools and other features provide policy analysis, research findings, and practitioner guides. These publications examine critical conflict issues at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and resolve violent conflict.
The views expressed in these publications are those of the author(s).
With Cease-fire Holding, Can Israel and Iran Move Toward De-escalation?
Israel’s stunning and sophisticated June 13 attack on Iran set off a worrying 12-day escalatory spiral. Iran responded in short order with ballistic missile and drone strikes, which led to a series of tit-for-tat exchanges between the two sides. A cease-fire is now in place -- but will it hold?
Jordan’s King Walks a Diplomatic Tightrope in Washington
Jordan has long been one of the United States closest allies in the Middle East and its leader, King Abdullah II, is typically the first Arab leader to meet with a new U.S. president. But when Abdullah met with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, the two leaders had to navigate profound differences over what happens next in Gaza amid a fragile cease-fire. Trump’s proposal to relocate Gazans to Egypt and Jordan has been met with sharp rejection by both countries and the broader region. The president has suggested that he may withhold aid to Egypt and Jordan if they don’t agree to take Palestinians from Gaza.
The Current Situation: Israel, The Palestinian Territories, Egypt and the Levant
For over seven decades, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — and its broader regional reverberations — has shaped Middle East politics and impacted U.S. interests in the region. Hamas’ unprecedented terror attack on October 7, 2023, the Israeli military response in Gaza and the implications for neighboring Jordan and Egypt — as well as seismic ripples in Lebanon and Syria — have sparked a new phase in the conflict’s and the region’s trajectory.
Netanyahu Comes to U.S. Amid Potential Inflection Point in the Middle East
On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu becomes the first foreign leader to meet with President Donald Trump since his return to the White House. The visit comes as a fragile but holding cease-fire in Gaza approaches the midway point of its initial six-week phase, and as phase two of the agreement’s prescribed negotiations begin, with critical questions surrounding Gaza’s transitional security and governance to be decided. It also comes against a backdrop of a recently extended cease-fire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, expressed interest by both Trump and Netanyahu in advancing Israeli-Saudi normalization, and international concern over Iran’s nuclear threshold, despite the setbacks dealt to the “Axis of Resistance.”
I2U2: India’s Diplomatic Tool for a Changing World Order
Using I2U2 as its main case study, this discussion paper looks specifically at New Delhi’s rationale for pursuing minilaterals that extend beyond bilateral ties and avoid the rigidities associated with formal multilateral groupings. I2U2 is the first minilateral involving India and the United States in the Middle East and also offers an example of how the two countries may work cooperatively on regional initiatives that complement one another’s strategic and economic interests.
April Longley Alley on the Houthis’ Reaction to the Gaza Cease-fire
With the cease-fire in Gaza, Yemen’s Houthis have halted their “near daily” attacks on Israel. However, the Houthis have made clear that “this is a very tenuous pause,” says USIP’s April Longley Alley, adding: “They view [Gaza] as part of a larger struggle … this is going to be a medium- and long-term threat.”
Robert Barron on the Next Phase of the Israel-Hamas Cease-fire
With phase one of the cease-fire underway, the next major question to be answered is: “What would fill [the] governance void in Gaza going forward,” says USIP’s Robert Barron, adding that the Trump administration might consider “a new version of the Abraham Accords that has a Gaza component.”
U.S. National Security Advisors Talk Top Foreign Policy Challenges
Against the backdrop of numerous crises and challenges — including destructive wildfires in California, the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and cease-fire negotiations in Gaza — National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and his successor, Michael Waltz, believe a seamless transition from the Biden to Trump administrations is essential for safeguarding U.S. security. President-elect Donald J. Trump is set to take the oath of office in Washington on January 20.
Israel, Hamas Reach Gaza Cease-fire Deal: What Happens Now?
On January 15, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani announced that a cease-fire agreement — mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States — had been reached between Hamas and Israel to pause fighting in Gaza and begin a series of steps to end of the war. The agreement — the text of which has yet to be released, and which is expected to begin Sunday — details three phases toward immediate humanitarian relief, hostage and prisoner exchange, redeployment of Israeli forces, and negotiations toward a longer-term end-of-hostilities and reconstruction of Gaza.
Israel-Houthi Tensions Heat Up – What’s Next?
Since Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack, Yemen’s Houthis have regularly attacked Israel, joining its fellow members of the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” in solidarity with Hamas. Not only have they fired missiles and drones at Israel, but the Houthis have also disrupted commercial shipping by attacking ships in the Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest maritime trade arteries. The pace of its attacks on Israel ramped up significantly in December.