KEY TAKEAWAYS
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Against the backdrop of numerous crises and challenges — including destructive wildfires in California, the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and cease-fire negotiations in Gaza — National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and his successor, Michael Waltz, believe a seamless transition from the Biden to Trump administrations is essential for safeguarding U.S. security. President-elect Donald J. Trump is set to take the oath of office in Washington on January 20.
As part of USIP’s 2025 Passing the Baton event on January 14, Sullivan and Waltz emphasized their shared commitment to addressing immediate threats while staying focus on long-term strategic priorities, delivering a unified message to adversaries not to exploit this pivotal moment. Former USIP Board chair Stephen J. Hadley, who was national security advisor under President George W. Bush, moderated the event.
Since 2001, USIP’s Passing the Baton conference has commemorated the peaceful transition of power from one administration to the next by gathering top foreign policy and national security leaders for candid, bipartisan discussions about the national security challenges facing the United States. This flagship, bipartisan event marks the peaceful transfer of power and the bipartisan character of American foreign policy.
Pointing to the unique challenges of this particular transition period, Sullivan said it is “especially important that there be deep consultation and a smooth handoff because just in the period of this transition, we’ve seen the fall of Assad; we’ve seen the declaration of martial law in [South] Korea; we have an active, ongoing negotiation for a cease-fire and hostage deal in Gaza; we had the first deadly terrorist attack of the Biden administration on January 1.” (It was announced the day after the event that Israel and Hamas had reached a cease-fire deal.)
He highlighted ongoing collaboration with Waltz: “Mike and I have spent a considerable amount of time together going through the issues” to ensure a smooth handoff. This mutual effort, Sullivan noted, sends a clear message to adversaries: “They are not going to be able to take advantage of this time of transition.”
In his previous role as a Republican congressman from Florida, Waltz admitted he had been very vocal whenever he disagreed with the Biden administration’s policies. Echoing Sullivan’s sentiments, however, he reaffirmed the importance of unity in transitions: “At the end of the day, we’re all Americans, and we’re sending the message to our adversaries: Don’t you dare try to take advantage of this time.”
Waltz acknowledged areas of disagreement but lauded the candidness of his discussions with Sullivan, noting that “the American people can then judge” the outcomes of differing policy directions.
Sullivan and Waltz addressed the immediate crises facing the United States and also discussed the importance of maintaining focus on long-term strategic threats, particularly those posed by China.
“China,” Sullivan said, “is the one country with both the ambition and the potential capacity to really compete with us across all dimensions.” Making the point that “intense competition does require intense diplomacy,” he said it is important for a U.S. national security advisor to have a “strategic channel” with their Chinese counterpart “so that China understands what we’re up to, and so we understand what they’re up to.”
“It’s not about making compromises on our national security, our interests or values … it’s about having an open channel of communication to manage the competition so it doesn’t tip over into conflict,” Sullivan explained. “Same goes for military-to-military communication. Same goes for leader-to-leader communication.”
Waltz said Trump “firmly believes we can avoid conflict with the Chinese Communist Party because they need our markets. And we're going to … use the leverage in a way that’s in line with our national security.”
China poses challenges through its aggressive actions in the South China Sea and unfair economic practices. Sullivan said it is crucial to strike “a balance between dealing with the urgent and the immediate while also making the investments in the long term.”
Waltz said it is also important for the United States to secure its supply chains, bolster Taiwan’s deterrence against a Chinese attack and strengthen partnerships, including with South Korea, Japan, India and the Philippines, to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific. He also said it is important to address China’s growing influence in Latin America and reduce the U.S. dependence on China for pharmaceuticals and critical minerals. “We cannot depend on our greatest adversary for critical supplies,” he said.
Sullivan and Waltz recognized the need for a robust strategy to counter China’s influence. Sullivan articulated a multifaceted approach, noting that “a good China strategy” involves working closely with allies in Asia and Europe. He emphasized the importance of maintaining the United States’ lead in key technologies and ensuring China cannot use these technologies against the United States or its friends and allies.
Noting that China “is facing some stiff economic headwinds,” Sullivan said a big part of their solution to those headwinds “is to try to overproduce in key sectors, to flood the market with cheap goods that undercut American workers and undercut our supply chain resilience by maintaining a chokehold in key supply chains.” He said the next administration will need to continue to take a stand on Chinese overcapacity and bring allies on board in that effort. “[W]hen we are flanked by strong allies and partners in contending with China, we’re much better off and being able to push back against their excesses,” he added.
Regarding the Middle East, Sullivan and Waltz discussed both the challenges and opportunities arising from the rapidly shifting dynamics on the ground.
As the Biden administration worked to secure a cease-fire and hostage release deal in Gaza, there has been “unprecedented” collaboration between Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Biden’s top Middle East advisor, Brett McGurk, Hadley noted.
Iran, meanwhile, “is at its weakest point since the Iranian Revolution” as a result of the recent losses dealt to its proxies — Hezbollah and Hamas —by Israel and Assad’s unexpected ouster in Syria, said Sullivan. Waltz credited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership and daring Israeli operations — such as the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah — on the ground. However, the Iran-backed Houthis continue to remain what Sullivan described as “a clear and present danger.”
Nevertheless, “Iran is in a weak position, and that creates real opportunities, but it also brings risks,” said Sullivan, noting that some in Iran are talking about rethinking their policy on nuclear weapons. He said there is an opportunity to conduct diplomacy to put Iran’s nuclear program “fully in a box.”
The Biden administration built on the first Trump administration’s Abraham Accords with the goal of normalizing ties between Israel and its Arab neighbors and building a Palestinian state. “We think there is a formula there that could really lock in a foundation for greater stability, prosperity and integration in the Middle East,” Sullivan acknowledged. Waltz suggested building on this momentum through rail, infrastructure and fiber optic projects that would better connect the Middle East beyond the region. “The more we’re talking about those big projects, the less and less we’re talking about those old animosities,” he said.
Assad’s fall in Syria could lead to the resurgence of ISIS, Sullivan cautioned. He said the Biden administration has recently “really intensified the military tempo of our campaign against ISIS so that they cannot reconstitute in a serious way.” He added: “That is going to be ongoing work, and that, too, is something the incoming administration is going to have to pick up.”
Noting the recent disruption of an ISIS plot in the United States, Waltz said the terrorist group is “reinvigorating to try to inspire individuals inside the United States.” The January 1 attack in New Orleans that claimed the lives of 15 people was carried out by a U.S. citizen who was “inspired by” ISIS, according to Biden.
Waltz identified the southern border as a top priority for the incoming Trump administration. “The open nature of it is just unacceptable,” he said. The Trump administration will “go back to the policies that we believe were working, whether that’s ‘Remain in Mexico’ or working with the Mexicans to fortify their southern border, but we just cannot sustain the millions of people that have come across,” he added.
Following their discussion, Sullivan and Walz participated in a ceremonial passing of the baton.
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