Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Xi Ramps Up Campaign for a Post-Pax Americana Security Order
Since China’s post-COVID opening in January of this year, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his army of diplomats have begun intensifying their campaign for China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI). Xi first proposed the GSI last April, offering few details but saying the initiative would “promote security for all in the world.” Beijing has since elaborated in more detail through a Ministry of Foreign Affairs concept paper and has connected the GSI to its peace plan for Ukraine and the rapprochement it brokered between old rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia. Above all, the initiative aims to promote a vision of an alternative to the U.S.-led international order.
The New Nonaligned Movement Is Having a Moment
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accentuated emerging geopolitical trends that have coincided with the rise and intensification of great power competition. The re-emergence of the nonaligned movement (NAM) as a geopolitical force is perhaps the most salient example. Indeed, this month’s edition of Foreign Affairs — a reliable barometer of key trends in international affairs — is dedicated to the “nonaligned world.” By definition, NAM states do not want to be forced to choose sides between the United States and/or Russia and China. But as we move into a multipolar era of accelerating great power competition, these states will find themselves caught between major powers.
U.N. Conference Highlights Global Unity but Limited Leverage Over the Taliban
Over a year and a half since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, not a single country has recognized its government. Yet, it has resulted in no change in Taliban behavior. The worst predictions of what Taliban rule could be like have come true, as the regime has implemented unprecedented restrictions on women amid a brutal humanitarian crisis. The situation is so bad that U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres convened a special conference in Doha, Qatar this week — with no Taliban representation — to discuss Afghanistan’s international isolation. While there were no tangible outcomes — evidence of how limited the international community’s leverage really is — it did demonstrate remarkable consensus on the imperative to help the Afghan people.
Myanmar’s Military Is Smaller Than Commonly Thought — and Shrinking Fast
International actors seeking to end Myanmar’s civil war make an assumption that on its face appears reasonable: They need to focus on the coup regime for any resolution of the conflict, the thinking goes, because the military is simply too big to fail. But is it? The Sit-Tat, as the armed forces are known, is an opaque institution, shrouded in secrecy, with the question of its actual size a major mystery. As explained below, analysts who lack reliable evidence tend to make estimates of military manpower that are far too high.
Youth-Centered Peacebuilding Framework
The Youth-Centered Peacebuilding Framework is a functional guide that proposes an actionable approach for the centering of youth in peacebuilding interventions. The guide operationalizes the concept of youth participation, starting from core principles and moving to practical guidance and specific action steps for meaningful youth engagement at different stages of a peacebuilding project.
Amid Sudan’s Chaos, Youth Groups Work for Peace
Amid Sudan’s battle between security forces loyal to rival generals, young civil society leaders are working to stem the violence. These leaders are part of grassroots youth networks that have been central to Sudan’s five-year-old citizens’ movement for a transition from military rule to democratic civilian governance. Against the current violence, youth-led efforts are combating misinformation, providing humanitarian aid and organizing crowdfunding to secure food and medicine. As the international community presses combatants to end the conflict and safeguard civilians, it is crucial that they also support the youth-led civil society initiatives to stop the violence and address its causes.
Andrew Wells-Dang on U.S.-Vietnam Relations 48 Years After the War
While U.S.-Vietnam relations have progressed remarkably since the end of the Vietnam War, “we talk about reconciliation as a long-term process … so even though we’re now almost 50 years into the post-war period, that reconciliation process isn’t complete yet,” says USIP’s Andrew Wells-Dang.
Marcos Meets Biden Amid Tightening Security Ties
Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. is in Washington this week, capping off a period in which Washington-Manila ties have seen a sharp turnaround. During former President Rodrigo Duterte’s six-year tenure, he sought to align Manila closer with Beijing, but with ultimately little to show for it. Since taking office last June, Marcos has moved to reverse course, dramatically deepening the 70-year-old U.S.-Philippines security alliance amid China’s increasingly coercive actions in the South China Sea. It is expected that Marcos and President Joe Biden will announce this week plans for stepped up military coordination.
Lavrov in Latin America: Russia’s Bid for a Multipolar World
This past week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov completed a four-country tour of Latin America to reinforce Moscow’s alliances and foster growing partnerships in the region. During the trip, Lavrov met with the heads of state of Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba in their respective countries, as well as another meeting with Bolivian emissaries during his stop in Venezuela. Lavrov used the opportunity to emphasize the key tenet of Russia’s newest foreign policy concept that was launched in the past month and is shared by regional powers like Brazil: The world is experiencing a revolution in which Western power is weakening and a new multipolar world is emerging.
Will the ‘Washington Declaration’ Deter North Korea?
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is in Washington this week as the United States and South Korea celebrate 70 years of bilateral ties. Yoon’s visit is only the second state visit hosted by the Biden administration and the first South Korean state visit in 12 years. While there have been some recent strains in the relationship over U.S. trade and semiconductor policy and Seoul’s support for Ukraine, the focus of the bilateral summit was on the threat posed by North Korea. Although the summit ostensibly achieved both sides’ desired security deliverables related to deterrence, reassurance and nonproliferation, these outcomes will likely not provide enduring solutions to the North Korea challenge.