U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: Joining us now is Keith Mines, the director of the Latin America program at the United States Institute of Peace. He comes bring us the very latest on what's happening with Haiti right now, Keith, welcome, and good morning. How are you?

Keith Mines: Great and good to be here. Thanks.

Laura Coates: Thank you for joining us. There was a flight that finally arrived in the United States coming out of Haiti for Americans, private charter or charter flights. For Americans trying to escape the violence and unrest in Haiti. Bring us up to speed because the last many people heard, you had a decision from a leader to step down in the wake of all of the gang violence.

Keith Mines: Yeah, I mean, it's a very complicated situation. And just when you think things can't get any worse, they do. But you had a basically a collapse of the governing structures. Such as it was last month when Prime Minister Henry thinking he was kind of secure after he passed one deadline for an election seem to have come and gone. So, he went off to Kenya to try to stir up support for a multinational security mission that would help stabilize the country, and then was off to CARICOM to do some political regional work. And while he was out the gangs sprung 4000 people from jail, attacked police stations and then assaulted the airport. So, basically shut down the country to commercial flights, and have now kind of got the country in a stranglehold. So, he was stuck outside the country. And that then led to another round of political negotiations to try to form a new transitional government that would be more inclusive, that would have better connections to the Haitian people. And that would allow the country a governing structure that could match the incoming Kenyan multinational security force. Nothing right now, frankly, is set in stone that government has not been formed yet. They're still working on that. But there's still a lot of questions up in the air about both the security and the political sides of the equation.

Laura Coates: I mean, I just hear the phrase, the government has not been formed yet. And I think, my God, what is the timeline for one to be formed?

Keith Mines: Well, they've been working on this, it's a hard thing. Haiti's just a really tough political environment. I think people sometimes look at it and wish it were easier. It's just not, it's a hard political environment. And there's always a kind of an air of violence in the background. Unfortunately, political leaders have often turned to gangs, for muscle to their own causes. So, it's a place that's just a really hard political environment, there's a tendency to attack other political players very quickly and persistently. So, there's a lot of work that would, I think, still needs to be done to make this governing structure inclusive. They're trying to use a formula that, frankly, is a pretty good formula. It was used in 2004, when the government also collapsed. It's kind of a council of notables or a council of sages that would have seven or eight or nine people in this case, that would be part of a governing structure. And from that, they would select either on a rotating basis, or one time a kind of first among equals to be the country's leader.

The other thing that's always in play is Haiti's constitution, like many constitutions [unintelligible] acting to a long period of dictatorship, they may have overcompensated in some ways. So, the split between the Prime Minister and the President is really a kind of a funky arrangement. And it's never quite sure how that's supposed to go. And that's been one of the problems, I think, in governing in the last two and a half years. And even before that, it's a very difficult political environment. Talks are ongoing and, you know, let's wish them luck because they need a functional government, and they need it now.

Laura Coates: Yeah, I mean, the role of the United States in trying to address or even influence, I mean, what could it be?

Keith Mines: Well, the U.S. is involved in these talks are actually being facilitated by CARICOM with some outside experts. They're also kind of challenged, I think, by the fact that they're being done by zoom. I think that you know, some of the CARICOM facilitators are together in Jamaica. But I think that a lot of it's been done with Haitian actors by zoom. It's not a terrifically effective way to hold the negotiation. Frankly, I'm not even sure it's ever been done before. So, I think part of the pressure that needs to be brought to bear maybe isn't there. The United States is supportive of the process, is involved on a certain level. But one of the things that I think you note you notice is that it just needs a closer. Watch Suits, we need Harry Spector, you know, we need somebody to come in and close the deal. So, Harvey Specter, sorry, but we need somebody that can close the deal, and then has the incentives. And then the longer-term accompaniment to make sure that this new government is up and running.

Laura Coates: You know, the U.S. eventually, I think the U.S. had asked for what $300 million in funding, but Congress is now trying to get some greater clarity on the mission and the needs. But then Kenya is playing an interesting role because they had signed up to be in a supportive position, what about a year ago? Obviously, things have changed since then to now.

Keith Mines: Yeah, that's one of the things that has gotten complicated is Kenya signed up. It was a very long-term process, unfortunately, to get this whole thing together. But the Haitians asked for some for support, they asked for help all the way back in October of 2022. And it took about a year for the U.N. to authorize a multinational security force. So, it's not a conventional peacekeeping operation where the U.N. sends its own force. They basically authorize another country to lead the policy and go out and form that force. The Kenyans stepped up to that heroically frankly and said they would lead that, and they would have a first force of 1000, that would be then built out with other countries that would provide forces and funding and weapons and all the rest. But they signed up at a time when it was a little simpler than what it is now. That was a time when it was supporting what looked like a weak but quasi functional government in Haiti. With the government now in exile, with the gangs, having now taken over even more territory and threatening to actually try to govern the country themselves. It's kind of passed to, I think, a heavier mission than what was initially envisioned, which was a police mission. So, there is a question about what's needed upfront.

The other thing that they've insisted on, and I think they're smart about this is they've said they want to see a functional government, as I understand it, before they actually deploy. So, that actually could be some of the pressure that's needed to get this government together. But there's a question about funding, they need to see the funding stream upfront. So, they know they have a clear funding stream, they need, again, a bit more muscle probably upfront as they go in to deploy. And then probably a number of other forces would be needed. Again, the U.S. has tried to promote something, kind of lead from behind, if you will, the U.S. does not want to deploy forces to this force. But it is a little weaker without U.S., Canadian and other regional forces, those things would be really helpful. And we've argued a couple of times that if the U.S. can't provide forces, there would be a way to contract some of this out under a U.S. flag. And that's I know it's got some people nervous about the notion of contracting, but it's been used very effectively in a number of other peacekeeping missions, to provide those more skilled and heavier forces that are needed at a time like this.

Laura Coates: Well, we'll continue to watch what's happening. Obviously, the violence and unrest is unbelievable to witness from abroad and to see the fragility of the government and what could come next. Keith Mines director of the Latin America program. Thank you for joining us this morning.

Keith Mines: Thank you, Laura. Good to be here.