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United States Institute of Peace

Ye Myo Hein

Visiting Senior Expert

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Ye Myo Hein is a visiting senior expert for the Myanmar program at USIP. At USIP, Ye Myo Hein provides strategic guidance to numerous programs and writes extensively about the conflict in Myanmar. He is a leading analyst on the conflict, focusing primarily on military strategy, military balance of power and war trajectories.

He is also a global fellow for the Asia program at the Wilson Center. Prior to USIP, Ye Myo Hein founded and served as executive director at the Tagaung Institute of Political Studies, one of Myanmar’s pre-eminent think tanks and policy research institutes. He is a leading expert on the Myanmar military and a specialist in security sector governance, having served as an technical advisor and delegate to the Myanmar peace process. Ye Myo Hein also co-founded the Yangon School of Political Science and the Burma Studies Center.

Ye Myo Hein has written several major reports on the Myanmar military and peace process, as well dozens of analytical articles for domestic and international news outlets, including The New York Times, The Diplomat, Foreign Affairs, and Foreign Policy.

Publications By Myo Hein

Myanmar’s Fateful Conscription Law

Myanmar’s Fateful Conscription Law

Monday, February 26, 2024

By: Ye Myo Hein

Earlier this month, Myanmar’s ruling junta enacted a compulsory conscription law that had been dormant since 2010. General Guan Maw, a leader of the Kachin Independence Organization, greeted the junta's decision by comparing it to the 2021 military coup: "If February 1, 2021, was the beginning of the end, the law enforced on February 10, 2024, can be said to mark the end of the end.” As popular reactions to the new conscription plan roll out across the country, General Guan Maw’s pronouncement becomes increasingly prescient.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Is Myanmar’s Junta Turning a Corner?

Is Myanmar’s Junta Turning a Corner?

Thursday, August 10, 2023

By: Priscilla A. Clapp ;   Ye Myo Hein

Are conciliatory winds stirring among the leaders of Myanmar’s coup regime, or is the junta engaging in deception and distraction as it struggles on the battlefield against a broad range of resistance forces? The answer is almost certainly the latter. It would not be the first time the ruling generals have sought to stimulate international interest in promoting dialogue solely to enhance their legitimacy abroad.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Myanmar’s Military Is Smaller Than Commonly Thought — and Shrinking Fast

Myanmar’s Military Is Smaller Than Commonly Thought — and Shrinking Fast

Thursday, May 4, 2023

By: Ye Myo Hein

International actors seeking to end Myanmar’s civil war make an assumption that on its face appears reasonable: They need to focus on the coup regime for any resolution of the conflict, the thinking goes, because the military is simply too big to fail. But is it? The Sit-Tat, as the armed forces are known, is an opaque institution, shrouded in secrecy, with the question of its actual size a major mystery. As explained below, analysts who lack reliable evidence tend to make estimates of military manpower that are far too high.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Myanmar’s Criminal Junta Will Do Anything to Consolidate Power

Myanmar’s Criminal Junta Will Do Anything to Consolidate Power

Thursday, March 9, 2023

By: Ye Myo Hein

After months of fanfare about holding elections in August 2023, Myanmar’s junta chief, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, suddenly changed course. On February 1, he extended the junta’s illegitimate rule by another six months acknowledging that the military does not control enough of the country to administer an election. This development represents a setback for those in the international community who had naively believed that sham elections would pave the way to a stable Myanmar.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

For Myanmar, the Only Path to Stability Runs Through its Web of Resistance Forces

For Myanmar, the Only Path to Stability Runs Through its Web of Resistance Forces

Thursday, December 1, 2022

By: Billy Ford ;   Ye Myo Hein

Even as Myanmar’s resistance forces gain ground on the battlefield, much of the international community continues to view the country’s anti-coup movement as fragmented and lacking cohesion. That perception has led some to throw up their hands and disengage from the conflict, while others are considering accepting the junta’s sham elections as a path to restoring stability. Both the premise and conclusion are wrong.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

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