Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
A Missile Strikes Poland: How Russia’s War Could Spread
When a missile slammed into a Polish village Tuesday, killing two farmers, it brought Russia’s war on Ukraine directly to the territory of a NATO ally. The immediate uncertainties included media speculation, and an assertion by Ukraine’s government, that Russia had struck Poland, risking a direct NATO response and an expansion of the war. That immediate threat eased as evidence grew that a Ukrainian air defense missile had strayed — but the incident illustrated that the dangers of an escalated war are real. The only true remedy for this threat is for Russia to stop waging war against Ukraine.
What a Russian Nuclear Escalation Would Mean for China and India
Since Russia began its assault on Ukraine last February, India and China have straddled the fence by hinting at their concerns regarding the war’s global fallout while avoiding direct public criticism of Moscow. Despite rhetorical consternation and calls for a peaceful resolution, neither has shown a willingness to meaningfully push back against Putin’s escalations in Ukraine. Instead, the two Asian nuclear powers are approaching the situation with caution and calculated diplomacy to preserve their own strategic interests — both in Russia and the West.
Ukraine’s Africa Visit Shows Its Fight Against Russia Goes Beyond the Battlefield
In the days before Russia’s bombing escalation in Ukraine in early October, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was visiting Africa in a bid to garner support and counter Moscow’s propaganda about the war. While much of the Western world has rallied around Ukraine, African states have largely avoided taking sides. For its part, Russia has been on a diplomatic offensive in much of the Global South, lobbying African, Asian, Latin American, and Middle Eastern countries to not join international sanctions and condemnation against Moscow. Indeed, Ukraine’s fight against Russia is not only taking place on the battlefield, but also through an ambitious and needed international diplomacy efforts that extends from Europe to the Global South.
In Moldova, Russia Wages Another Hybrid War
The past week underscores a rising threat in Europe from Russia’s savage assault on Ukraine: the Kremlin’s parallel destabilization of tiny Moldova, between Ukraine and Romania. The Kremlin is escalating a hybrid subversion campaign against Moldova’s effort to build a stable democracy and join the European Union. It is choking off vital gas supplies to tank the economy, sponsoring mass anti-government protests and helping a fugitive Moldovan oligarch launch the latest of several pro-Russia political parties. European policymakers say Moldova, partly occupied by Russian troops, is one of the countries most vulnerable to a spread of the war in Ukraine.
Knox Thames on the Role of Religion in the Ukraine War
Russian President Vladimir Putin invoked religion as part of his justification for Russia's attack on Ukraine, believing their shared Orthodox history would lend credibility to his ambitions. "Of course, the Ukrainians beg to differ," says USIP's Knox Thames. "It's actually strengthening Ukrainian resistance to [Putin's] aggressive actions."
Ukraine: The EU’s Unprecedented Provision of Lethal Aid is a Good First Step
Just three days after Russia began its war of aggression against Ukraine, the European Union announced that it would provide weapons to Ukraine through a new financing instrument, the European Peace Facility (EPF), marking the first time in EU history that the bloc provided lethal weaponry. Over the past six months, the EU has provided €2.5 billion to Ukraine through the EPF for arms and equipment, signaling a more muscular EU foreign policy featuring the unprecedented provision of direct military assistance.
In a War Over Global Order, Russia Bombs Ukraine Cities
Over the past 48 hours, Russia again escalated its rain of explosives on Ukrainian cities and civilians. As Ukraine’s soldiers drive back Russia’s invasion forces, Vladimir Putin is trying instead to bludgeon millions of Ukrainians into submitting to his will, crippling the power, water and heating systems they need to survive the winter. A war over whether we should govern our world through laws or at gunpoint is in a dangerous new phase — and those who would maintain peace through law need to buttress our support for the Ukrainians bearing that front-line battle.
Nobel Peace Prize: Documenting Rights Abuses is Vital in Ukraine and Beyond
The award of the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize to one individual and two civil society organizations — from Belarus, Russia and Ukraine — recognizes the critical role civil society documenters play in holding states accountable for human rights abuses. The laureates have brought to light the breadth of abuses committed by authoritarian regimes in Belarus and Russia and the vast harms suffered by Ukrainians as a result of the Russian invasion. They also reflect a larger global trend, where civil society organizations document crimes in order to hold perpetrators accountable, memorialize the suffering of victims, and provide critical information to families on the fates of their loved ones.
Is Russia Escalating to De-Escalate?
Vladimir Putin is under increased pressure as Russia continues to lose ground inside Ukraine. Faced with the prospect of stark losses — potentially leaving Russia in a worse position than before its February 24 invasion — Moscow may be embarked on an “escalate to de-escalate” strategy. By raising the specter of a nuclear confrontation twice in recent weeks, Putin may in fact be seeking a way out of his dilemma marked by Russia’s strategic failure in Ukraine. The coming weeks will be critical as Putin pursues nuclear brinksmanship — possibly even repositioning tactical nuclear weapons — while actually seeking an exit.
Mary Glantz on Putin’s Escalating Threats Against Ukraine and the West
With Ukraine making massive gains on the ground, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s escalating threats "show that [he] is getting a little bit desperate," says USIP's Mary Glantz. "He's been feeling a lot of pressure to show some victories," which has left the world "holding their breath to see what might happen."