U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Julie Mason: Dr. Mary Glantz is senior adviser on Russia and Europe at the Russia and Europe Center for the United States Institute of Peace. She was a career member of the U.S. Foreign Service, detailed USIP as a State Department fellow prior to retirement in 2022. Here to discuss Russia, Ukraine and all that's going on there. Dr. Glantz, good morning.

Mary Glantz: Good morning.

Julie Mason: Wonderful to have you. We seem to be at a bit of a stark moment here in the Russia v. West stare down.

Mary Glantz: Yeah, things are definitely very challenging right now with Putin threatening nuclear war, annexing those countries and with Ukraine continuing to make massive gains on the ground. It's definitely a point in the war when everybody's holding their breath to see what might happen.

Julie Mason: Something I've noticed, and I wonder if you agree with this, is there doesn't seem to be, I mean leading up to the war in Iraq and the attack on Afghanistan, there was like a sort of "gung-ho-ness." So like, this is right, this is just, we must do this. This time around, within this conflict, there seems to be a sort of a standing back and saying, you know, this is bad, hypothetically, this could get much worse. We're not really sure where this is heading, but there doesn't seem to be that rush to get into it.

Mary Glantz: I think there actually is a lot of support for Ukraine, because I think people were very alarmed that in this day and age, a neighboring country will just roll over and conquer and demand the territory of a neighbor. I mean, that would upset the entire international system. And then you hear all the reports of the atrocities coming out of Ukraine. So I do get the sense that there is a big, a fairly large, amount of support for Ukraine in this country. And you certainly see that in the amount of money and weapons that we're giving to Ukraine. I think the concern is that, as opposed to those wars, where we were fighting against terrorist organizations and other things, here, we're actually funding [and] we're actually supplying weapons to a country that is defending itself against a nuclear great power. That I think raises the stakes for some people, you have to be a little more cautious. You have to think carefully about what you're doing. But I don't think that it's actually limited the understanding that if something's not done against Russia, you will upset the international order. And that's a threat to everyone.

Julie Mason: Indeed, even though Ukraine is not a NATO member, so there aren't those Article Five considerations, but there seems to be talk around that saying, there still must be a response if...

Mary Glantz: Yeah, exactly. It's not an Article Five member, but it is a sovereign, independent country whose borders were recognized by the members of the United Nations. And that respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity is at the heart of everything that we rely upon to maintain peace and order in the world today.

Julie Mason: What did you make of the annexation?

Mary Glantz: I thought that the annexation was, well, first of all, it's meaningless in terms of international law. We don't recognize its occupation, its annexation. Nobody, I think really recognizes the annexation of those territories. They're part of Ukraine, they're not part of Russia, despite what Putin says. I think what it shows is that Putin is getting a little bit desperate, with regard to the people on his right, the so called Russian military bloggers. They're ultra-nationalists in Russia, who have been very critical of the way that this war has been prosecuted, and have been very critical of the military leadership, if not Putin himself. And so, he's, I think, been feeling a lot of pressure to show some victory, to so show some gains and some seriousness in this war.

Julie Mason: It was startling to see the exodus of Russians out of Russia when that call up went out.

Mary Glantz: It absolutely, well, on the one hand, it was startling to see it because it's odd to see that sort of thing. And it was startling because who would have thought, I mean, Putin declaring a partial mobilization. Again, that's a response to the critics on his right, but it's something that I think everybody watching this war knew from the very beginning was going to be deeply unpopular in the country. You know, he had to call it a special military operation. He had to pretend like it wasn't affecting the lives of Russians and suddenly he said, "No, we're going to call you up and we're going to force you to go fight in this special military operation." And people just fled, and I think that was startling. That the whole thing happened was somewhat startling.

Julie Mason: Indeed. What did you make of Putin's speech the other day?

Mary Glantz: His speech was very bellicose, but it was in line with what we've...So I think the underlying thing that I've seen with this annexation, with the mobilization, with everything else is that Putin is feeling pressure from the right, as I said, the military bloggers, the far, the ultra-patriots in his party. And this speech was sort of a concession to them as well. It was a way to say, "Look, I am taking this seriously. I am going to do everything I can to win this war and to accomplish everything." And I think it was also a warning to the West to try and scare us off from supporting Ukraine, because what we're doing in Ukraine is working. And so, he wants us to stop doing that so that he can wrap this up and go home. And that's why he was so bellicose in his speech.

Julie Mason: How significant, Dr. Glantz, is it that Germany is wobbly again?

Mary Glantz: It's significant in that because what's happening in Ukraine is working, because the support that we're giving Ukraine, the military support, the political support, is working, it's actually forcing Putin to recognize that, you know, that it's not going to be easy to just have his way with these other independent states. So, Germany's support for this effort is absolutely vital, because we need a united Europe and united NATO. So far, they've been doing what they need to do in terms of supporting Ukraine in terms of supporting their effort against Russia. So, it's important, it's very important that they continue to do this.

Julie Mason: And the atrocities. That investigation has been ongoing. I mean, there's so many of them, so many atrocities, so many investigations into atrocities, where's that process? And where is it heading do you believe?

Mary Glantz: So, first, in terms of atrocities and crimes, the invasion itself was a violation of international law. So, from the very beginning, this has been a violation. These other war crimes, every time Ukraine liberates a city or a village, they're finding signs of war crimes, and this includes that Russian forces have indiscriminately targeted civilians, they've shelled hospitals, schools, apartment blocks. They've committed sexual violence, not just against women, but also men and children. They've tortured and executed civilians, and they kidnapped thousands of Ukrainian children and forcibly deported them to Russia. So as the Ukrainians are liberating each of these areas and seeing each of these crimes, international teams are going with them, or following closely behind them, and they're gathering up the evidence. And they report that they've found compelling evidence of genocide against the Ukrainian people. Right now, it's an evidence-gathering process. There's not much else that they can do other than gather evidence, though, they have noted that the Genocide Convention, that we're a party to and that most of the countries in the world are a party to, does require that you do something not just to prosecute and to punish genocide, but actually to prevent it. And I think this is another very important reminder for why we need to remain strong and steadfast in supporting Ukraine as they defend themselves, because these atrocities show that this is something that must be stopped.

Julie Mason: Dr. Mary Glantz, senior adviser, Russia and Europe Center for the U.S. Institute of Peace. Thank you for joining me.

Mary Glantz: Thank you for having me.

Julie Mason: Really good to talk.