As the Biden administration commits to revitalizing global democracy, the shocking rise in the number of recent coups demands an urgent response from the United States and its allies and partners. The number of coups and coup attempts in 2021 matches the highpoint for the 21st century. Despite what military juntas may claim, the current “epidemic of coups” — as U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called it — spreads instability, undermines democratic progress and human rights and is accelerating cycles of violence in countries wracked by conflict.

Ahead of the Biden administration’s Summit for Democracy, USIP held a two-part event that examines the dynamics driving four of the seven coups and coup attempts that we’ve seen over the past two years. Day 2 featured panel discussions on Guinea-Conakry and Myanmar.

Visit the The Shocking Rise in Coups - Day 1 event page

Read the event analysis: Myanmar Read the event analysis: Guinea-Conakry

Guinea-Conakry (2:00pm – 3:15pm)

French

In Guinea-Conakry, the military arrested President Alpha Conde and suspended the constitution in September 2021. The coup came amid public discontent with Conde, who had pushed a controversial constitutional change to secure a third term and failed to address a number of domestic crises. In the aftermath, the coup’s leader, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, has purged top military brass and been sworn in as president — promising to restore full civilian rule after a transition period of unspecified length despite pressure to commit to elections in the near term. This conversation will look at how the Economic Community of West African States, the African Union and the international community can better support the Guinean people’s efforts to reestablish constitutional order. 

This session was broadcast in English and French. 

  • Oge Onubogu, moderator
    Director, West Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
  • Alexis Arieff  
    Specialist in African Affairs, Congressional Research Services
  • Ibrahima Niang 
    Regional Advocacy  Manager, Open Society Institute West Africa  
  • Christopher Fomunyoh  
    Senior associate and regional director for Central and West Africa, National Democratic Institute
  • Joseph Siegle
    Director of Research, Africa Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University 

 

Myanmar (3:15pm – 4:30pm)

In February 2021, just as a newly elected government in Myanmar was set to begin its term, the military took power in a coup. In the months since, the civilian population has managed to build and sustain a diverse resistance movement that has prevented the military from consolidating power. But the military has responded by waging war on the Burmese people, arresting thousands and reversing 10 years of democratic progress. As a result, the country has descended into a state of chaos and violence, with neither side likely to strike a decisive blow. This conversation will explore the factors that contributed to the coup, as well as how civil society and international organizations can help restore a civilian elected government.

  • Billy Ford, moderator
    Program Officer, Myanmar, U.S. Institute of Peace
  • Khin Ohmar
    Human Right Activist; Founder, Progressive Voice
  • Sai Kyaw Nyunt
    General Secretary, Shan National League for Democracy
  • Myat The Thitsar
    Researcher, University of Massachusetts
  • Gum San
    Spokesperson, Kachin Political Interim Coordination Team

Related Publications

Amid the Fight for Myanmar, Federalism Rises from the Grass Roots

Amid the Fight for Myanmar, Federalism Rises from the Grass Roots

Thursday, May 11, 2023

By: Priscilla A. Clapp;  Arkar Hein

On April 11, Myanmar’s ruthless military dictatorship showed just how much it fears the emergence of local governments that have slipped beyond its control. As about 200 villagers in the Sagaing region celebrated a new administrative center after junta-controlled officials had fled, fighter jets swooped in and dropped munitions on the crowd. When people sought to retrieve the dead and injured, an Mi35 helicopter arrived and circled, strafing the scene. At least 170 people, including women and children, died in the attack.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionDemocracy & Governance

Myanmar’s Military Is Smaller Than Commonly Thought — and Shrinking Fast

Myanmar’s Military Is Smaller Than Commonly Thought — and Shrinking Fast

Thursday, May 4, 2023

By: Ye Myo Hein

International actors seeking to end Myanmar’s civil war make an assumption that on its face appears reasonable: They need to focus on the coup regime for any resolution of the conflict, the thinking goes, because the military is simply too big to fail. But is it? The Sit-Tat, as the armed forces are known, is an opaque institution, shrouded in secrecy, with the question of its actual size a major mystery. As explained below, analysts who lack reliable evidence tend to make estimates of military manpower that are far too high.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Misinformation, Hate Speech and Ethno-Religious Tensions in Myanmar

Misinformation, Hate Speech and Ethno-Religious Tensions in Myanmar

Thursday, April 27, 2023

By: Arthur Klark;  Gabriela Sagun

In Myanmar, interethnic tensions have improved in the post-coup era as more and more resistance leaders join the call to fight the junta. This shared opposition to military rule has left many people hopeful for the prospect of broader national cohesion in a country that has been beset by various civil and ethnic conflicts for decades. But this moment of national cohesion can also obscure the complex histories and intercommunal grievances that remain unresolved — and a recent massacre in Southern Shan State demonstrates that the military’s violence still has the power to sow discord among a fragmented resistance movement.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionHuman Rights

View All Publications