Global warming, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels are already adversely affecting food and water security throughout the world—leaving the least resilient countries with an increased risk of political instability, social fragmentation, and economic collapse. A more accurate measurement of levels of exposure to tomorrow’s ecological threats is key to helping these countries maintain peace today and can enable others to better prepare and adapt for the future. 

The new Ecological Threat Register (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace, synthesizes and visualizes data on environmental indicators to estimate which countries, regions, and areas are most vulnerable to environment-induced conflict. In particular, the ETR underscores that 141 countries are vulnerable to ecological threats, and that approximately 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by ecological disasters in the next 30 years.

On September 22, USIP and the Institute for Economics and Peace examined the inaugural Ecological Threat Register, as experts explored the nexus between conflict and climate change and considered strategies for boosting resilience to climate-induced insecurity. Continue the conversation on Twitter with #EcoThreat2020.


Sagal Abshir
Non-Resident Fellow, Center on International Cooperation, New York University

Michael Collins
Executive Director, Institute for Economics & Peace 

Dr. Joseph Hewitt
Vice President for Policy, Learning and Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace 

Dr. Catherine-Lune Grayson
Policy Advisor, International Committee of the Red Cross

Tyler Beckelman, moderator
Director, International Partnerships, U.S. Institute of Peace 

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