Israel and the Palestinian Territories
For over seven decades, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has shaped Middle East politics. Hamas’ terror attack on October 7, 2023, and the Israeli military response in Gaza, have sparked a new phase in the conflict’s trajectory and efforts to resolve it, with lasting impacts that will transform Israeli and Palestinian societies, as well as regional dynamics. Building on over 30 years of partnering with Israeli and Palestinian peacebuilders; facilitating confidence building steps between the parties; and informing policy considerations of U.S. and international mediators, USIP is supporting Israeli and Palestinian civil society partners seeking to foster trust within and between their traumatized societies and take joint action to prevent the spread of violent deterioration. The Institute also contributes to policy deliberations, with an emphasis on convening Israeli, Palestinian and regional partners to ensure insights from the ground inform the pursuit of a regionally-supported, just, peaceful and sustainable solution to the conflict.
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The Middle East on Fire
Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on Israel on October 1 have raised fears of an all-out war in the Middle East. The deepening spiral of bloodshed began on September 17 and 18 with the detonation across Lebanon of thousands of pagers and two-way radios used by Hezbollah operatives — one analyst deemed the unprecedented Israeli operation “the most extensive physical supply chain attack in history.” Ongoing airstrikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon have marked the most significant Israeli barrage in 11 months of tit-for-tat escalation. On September 27, Israel dealt Hezbollah a devastating blow by killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on a Beirut suburb. Despite reeling from these latest reverses and the evisceration of its command structure, the Shiite militia continues to lob missiles at Israel. Stunned and outraged, Iran — Hezbollah’s patron — fired around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel; at least one person was killed in the West Bank. Iranians are now bracing for Israeli retaliation. The cycle of violence, it appears, is far from over.
Hassan Nasrallah is dead. What happens next in the Middle East?
Two weeks ago, Israel announced that halting Hezbollah attacks had become an official goal of its post-October 7 war effort. Since then, Israel conducted a sophisticated clandestine attack on Hezbollah’s communications infrastructure and struck numerous Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the suburbs of Beirut, killing many of Hezbollah’s senior leaders. Then, on Friday, an Israeli airstrike assassinated Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who led the group for over 30 years.
Whither Cease-fire Talks After Hamas Kills 6 Israeli Hostages?
Israeli soldiers’ discovery of six of their country’s hostages shot dead in a tunnel underneath Rafah, Gaza has placed the question of a cease-fire’s prospects in stark relief. Coming as the U.S. had already stepped up efforts to push for an Israel-Hamas agreement, the grim fate of the hostages can simultaneously be viewed as providing a catalyst for the urgent conclusion of a deal, or as a harbinger of diplomatic derailment for a process the U.S., Egypt and Qatar had been in the throes of pushing to resolution.