Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously
The historically fraught relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is deteriorating once again. A seemingly momentous peace deal that brought the two sides together in 2018 now appears to have been a brief interlude in a longer arc of enduring rivalry. The sources of recent tension include Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s public posturing around sea access and dynamics seeded by the 2018 peace deal itself. Neither side can afford escalation, but open conflict remains a possibility and even outcomes well short of direct hostilities — perhaps a return to the “no war, no peace” situation of preceding decades — would be disastrous for the two nations and the broader region.
Civil War Pushes Sudan to the Brink of Humanitarian Disaster
Away from the headlines dominated by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, a civil war between Sudan’s military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is pushing the country to the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. As an allegedly genocidal RSF gains the upper hand, a U.N. official has warned that Sudan is “facing a convergence of a worsening humanitarian calamity and a catastrophic human rights crisis.”
After Six Months of Civil War, What’s the State of Play in Sudan?
What started as clashes in Khartoum this April between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has devolved into a civil war. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who leads the SAF, and his former deputy, the RSF’s General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, had worked together in toppling the Bashir regime in 2019 and orchestrating a military coup in 2021. But tensions over how the RSF would integrate into the SAF eventually led to fighting that has metastasized over the last six months. Caught in the crossfire are Sudanese civilians, who are experiencing a growing humanitarian crisis.
In Northeast India, Manipur’s Violence Echoes Sudan’s Darfur
Rising violence this year threatens to deepen instability in India’s far northeastern region. Ominously, the bloodshed centered in India’s state of Manipur includes elements that were visible in early stages of the 20-year-old conflict in Sudan’s Darfur region. Darfur’s violence has killed or displaced millions of people and helped lead to this year’s civil war across Sudan. Tragically, both countries have seen these disparate conflicts intensify through widened opportunities for ill-governed ethnic militias and for hate speech. These evolutions have hardened local conflicts over land or water into more extreme, venomous warfare between ethnic or religious communities. Darfur’s example underscores the urgent need for responses in Manipur.
Countering Coups: How to Reverse Military Rule Across the Sahel
Three years of coups around Africa’s Sahel region — eight of them in six nations, from Guinea on the Atlantic to Sudan on the Red Sea — leave many African and other policymakers frustrated over how to respond. The Sahel’s crises have uprooted more than 4 million people and could add millions more to our record levels of global human migration as Africa’s population grows and its climate destabilizes. Yet the pattern of coups and other evidence — notably from USIP’s Sahel fieldwork, counter-coup research and bipartisan analysis teams — offer guidelines for effective responses by African, U.S. and international policymakers.
Sudan’s Crisis Offers New Lessons for Building Peace in the Sahel
Sudan’s five-week war has killed or wounded over 5,000 people, uprooted a million more — and reignited understandable frustrations over how U.S. and international policies can better prevent or respond to such upheavals. Amid heated policy debates, we should step back briefly to pinpoint lessons from this crisis that can improve our responses in Sudan and across the Sahel’s web of coups, insurgencies and extremism. Indeed, that task is urgent — both to address the complex evolutions in the region’s crises and to build support for smarter, steadier engagement, rather than a self-defeating retreat from the Sahel by global partners seeking democracy and stability.
Sudan: Engage Civilians Now, Not Later
Over the last month, a series of cease-fires in Sudan have yielded minimal results. Fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has continued and even intensified in some places. While the capital Khartoum and areas surrounding key infrastructure remain the core battlegrounds, the clashes have spread into other parts of the country.
What Sudan Needs Right Now
The unthinkable is unfolding in Sudan. A humanitarian disaster is deepening, as the state is being torn apart. The spill over could impact East Africa and the broader region — already tens of thousands of Sudanese have fled. As we have seen with other conflicts in the region, it is likely that malign, foreign interests will seek to exploit the situation to advance their own interests. The risk of Somalia-like anarchy on the Red Sea is real if the current fighting continues and foreign support for the warring parties — the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — continues to grow.
Amid Sudan’s Chaos, Youth Groups Work for Peace
Amid Sudan’s battle between security forces loyal to rival generals, young civil society leaders are working to stem the violence. These leaders are part of grassroots youth networks that have been central to Sudan’s five-year-old citizens’ movement for a transition from military rule to democratic civilian governance. Against the current violence, youth-led efforts are combating misinformation, providing humanitarian aid and organizing crowdfunding to secure food and medicine. As the international community presses combatants to end the conflict and safeguard civilians, it is crucial that they also support the youth-led civil society initiatives to stop the violence and address its causes.
What’s Behind the Fighting in Sudan?
Since Saturday, violent clashes between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been raging in the capital Khartoum and in other strategic areas throughout the country. While it’s unclear who initiated the fighting, the situation brings the de-facto leader of Sudan, the SAF’s General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, into direct confrontation with his deputy, the RSF’s General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is also referred to as “Hemetti.”