On August 20, Guatemalans voted decisively in favor of Bernardo Arévalo in their runoff presidential election, ushering in what will likely be the country’s most progressive president in decades. In just two months, Arévalo’s Movimiento Semilla party used its low-budget, social media-fueled campaign to propel him from obscure underdog candidate to a 20-point landslide victory.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance;  Youth

El 20 de agosto, los guatemaltecos votaron decisivamente a favor de Bernardo Arévalo en la segunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales, dando paso al que probablemente será el presidente más progresista del país en décadas. En apenas dos meses, el Partido Movimiento Semilla de Arévalo condujo una campaña de bajo presupuesto impulsada, desde las redes sociales, que llevó a un candidato poco conocido a una victoria aplastante de 20 puntos.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance;  Youth

On August 30, just hours after Gabon’s election commission announced that President Ali Bongo Ondimba had been elected to a third term, a group of Gabonese military officers from the elite presidential guard unit seized power and placed the president under arrest at his palace. Later that day, the officers declared General Brice Oligui Nguema as chairman of the transition. While the election itself had been marred by reports of irregularities, the officers’ coup marks the latest in a long line of recent military takeovers across the African continent that have jeopardized regional stability and security.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

Great power rivalry between the United States and China is frequently couched in bilateral terms with regions of the world merely serving as arenas of competition. Rarely considered is the reality that while third countries may be significantly weaker than either the United States or China, they are neither totally helpless nor completely without leverage or absent agency. As Southeast Asia is “where great powers meet,” the region’s states have a challenging balancing act to play, but also have options in how they manage the risks and opportunities presented by this competition.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

In the first half of 2023, Pakistan appeared to be moving toward a catastrophic economic default. An IMF loan program Pakistan entered into in 2019 had gone off track after the Fund found Islamabad’s commitment to reform lacking, leading to a suspension of loan disbursements. The derailment of the IMF program resulted in a significant drop in the country’s foreign exchange reserves — at one point this year, reserves could only cover about two weeks' worth of imports due to concurrent debt repayment pressure. To avoid defaulting, the government imposed stringent import restrictions in an attempt to control dollar outflows. That caused a major economic shutdown of import-dependent industries, a shortage of essential commodities and surge in inflation.

Type: Analysis

Economics

As the United States enters a “post-Afghanistan era” and with great power competition on the rise, questions abound about the role of the world’s major powers, and the multilateral institutions they lead, in preventing conflict. Many of these questions are rightly being asked about the People’s Republic of China (hereafter the PRC or China). As it has become a more powerful and influential actor — economically, politically and militarily — China has demonstrated growing interest in playing a larger role in preventing international conflict through both multilateral and bilateral frameworks. To date, little attention has been given to China’s activities in this area, a gap in understanding our forthcoming report is designed to help fill.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

During the August 5 crisis at Second Thomas Shoal, the Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs tried to contact its Chinese counterparts through a bilateral hotline. Manila’s effort to de-escalate the standoff despite being the victim of Chinese aggression was laudable. Unfortunately, the calls went unanswered. Officials in Washington have shared the same experience on many occasions — when communication is needed most, Beijing can’t be reached.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

For over a decade, confrontation over maritime administration and transit has increased the risk of security incidents between Japan and China. Disputes over territorial incursions, military movements and other activities have maintained consistent friction points between these regional neighbors, begging the question of how the two sides might mitigate tactical-level incidents from becoming strategic-level crises. To that end, on May 16, the two countries’ defense ministers held their first phone call across the newly established “Hotline between Japan-China Defense Authorities.” This culminated a years-long effort to establish a viable line of communication for information exchange and crisis management.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy