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China’s Alternative Approach to Security Along the Mekong River

China’s Alternative Approach to Security Along the Mekong River

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Speaking about “the rise” or the “emerging role” of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) makes little sense these days. The country is no longer simply transforming in a major power, but rather has achieved a level of influence that many other major countries around the world perceive as a threat economically, politically and militarily.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Sometimes the Good Guys Win: Five Lessons from Guatemala’s 2023 Election

Sometimes the Good Guys Win: Five Lessons from Guatemala’s 2023 Election

Thursday, April 25, 2024

When Bernardo Arévalo won the presidency last year, it left Guatemala’s corrupt old guard reeling. Arévalo and his anti-corruption Semilla Movement posed a direct threat to the power of Guatemala’s “pacto de los corruptos” — an alliance of government officials, politicians, prosecutors, judges, party financiers, state contractors and some wealthy families. The pact mobilized to overturn the election results. But Guatemala’s civil society, backed by U.S. and broader international support, was able to uphold the elections and advance democracy in the Central American nation.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

Ukraine’s New U.S. Lifeline: Why It’s Vital and What’s Next

Ukraine’s New U.S. Lifeline: Why It’s Vital and What’s Next

Thursday, April 25, 2024

This week’s U.S. approval of nearly $61 billion in funds for Ukraine’s defense is a lifeline in the Ukrainians’ struggle against Russia’s unprovoked invasion and the assault on peace and rule of law in Europe and beyond. Ukrainian troops have been rationing ammunition, their lack of defensive missiles has exposed Ukrainian cities to Russian aerial attacks — and many military analysts predicted a probable collapse on part of Ukraine’s eastern defensive lines. While this U.S. action boosts Ukrainians’ capacities and morale, ending this war will need further funds, forces and security measures for those fighting and suffering for their survival — and for the redemption of international peace through rule of law.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Stability in West Africa: Working With Nigeria’s State Governments

Stability in West Africa: Working With Nigeria’s State Governments

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

As coups and other setbacks have stymied military-led efforts to stem upheavals in West Africa and the Sahel, a potent new constituency of leaders has just gathered to plan nonviolent strategies to stabilize their own core area of the region: northern Nigeria. In West Africa’s demographic giant, economic crisis is exacerbating intercommunal conflicts, crime and other violence — and Nigeria’s federalism gives vital roles to its states in addressing roots of these problems. Ten recently elected state governors gathered in Washington last month with peacebuilding and development experts, business leaders and senior U.S. officials; they resolved to strengthen and coordinate state-level stabilization strategies — an initiative that international partners should support.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

For the Marshall Islands, Nuclear Remembrance Day Is a Painful Reminder

For the Marshall Islands, Nuclear Remembrance Day Is a Painful Reminder

Friday, March 1, 2024

Between 1946 and 1958, the United States detonated 67 nuclear and thermonuclear weapons in the Marshall Islands, a legacy that is commemorated today on the 70th anniversary of the Castle Bravo hydrogen bomb test. This nuclear legacy still reverberates in the Marshall Islands today, straining its relationship with Washington and creating a fissure that Beijing is exploiting as it seeks to increase its regional influence.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Why the Pacific Islands Is Seeing a Rise in ‘Defense Diplomacy’

Why the Pacific Islands Is Seeing a Rise in ‘Defense Diplomacy’

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

As strategic rivalry between China and the United States has intensified in recent years, the Pacific Island region has become a key arena for this geopolitical competition. Pacific Island countries are receiving more bilateral visits, new diplomatic missions, increased media attention and offers of development and security assistance from a greater number of states outside the region than ever before.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Riots in Papua New Guinea Are a Warning: Urgent Change is Needed

Riots in Papua New Guinea Are a Warning: Urgent Change is Needed

Thursday, January 11, 2024

Riots erupted in Papua New Guinea's capital yesterday, laying bare the hollowness of governance that is failing to meet public needs, thus risking deeper violence and instability. U.S attention to the Pacific Islands' largest and most populous nation is increasing, partly because it is an arena for geopolitical competition with China. While Papua New Guinea's leaders are good at rolling out the red carpet for visiting partners, the state fails lamentably in providing basic services for its people. This week’s violence is a wake-up call for U.S and international policymakers to re-focus on this root of the country’s instability.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceFragility & Resilience

China’s Edge in the Pacific Islands: Xi Jinping Makes Time for Leaders

China’s Edge in the Pacific Islands: Xi Jinping Makes Time for Leaders

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

If the U.S. government wants an edge over China in the Pacific Islands, it needs to facilitate more meetings between the president of the United States and regional leaders, preferably one-on-one. When Pacific Island leaders fly to Beijing, they often have a one-on-one meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but such a meeting between the leader of a Pacific Island country and a sitting president of the United States has never taken place. The White House has only conducted joint meetings with Pacific Island leaders. Sometimes even joint meetings don’t make the cut.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

At the Sahel’s Center, Tension Rises Over Chad’s Disputed Election

At the Sahel’s Center, Tension Rises Over Chad’s Disputed Election

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

A disputed presidential election in Chad last week is making few global headlines, but poses new risks to African and international efforts to reverse the Sahel region’s spreading instability, conflict and human displacement. Chad is centered in the world’s largest belt of military rule: six nations across Africa that have suffered armed coups since 2020. Among them, Chad is the first to hold elections to restore civilian rule. But a string of setbacks to a fully credible vote has yielded a contested result that risks further domestic conflict and a narrowing of popular legitimacy for the next government, led by the incumbent transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Deby.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & Conflict