Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Can Arab States Bounce Back from COVID and Climates Crises?
More than two years into the pandemic, Arab states continue to struggle with the economic and social impacts of COVID-19. Meanwhile, climate change is devastating the region — and its governments are ill-equipped to address massive problems like water scarcity and scorching temperatures. Even before COVID, much of the region was wracked by conflict, embroiled in social tension, suffering from lagging economies and witnessing growing disquiet over the unrealized aspirations of the Arab uprisings. These challenges are detailed in the U.N. Development Programme’s recently released 2022 Arab Human Development Report, which also lays out a path for an “inclusive and resilient recovery.”
A Month After U.S. Withdrawal, What is the State of Play in Syria?
In the month since President Trump’s October 6 phone call with Turkish President Erdogan and the announced U.S. withdrawal from northeast Syria, the picture on the ground has changed immensely. Moscow has emerged as the key power broker in Syria. The Kurds, looking for protection from Turkish forces, are in Russian-brokered talks with the Assad government. These discussions could pave the way for an expanded Syrian government presence in the northeast for the first time in years. Successive agreements with Turkey negotiated first by the United States (October 17) and then by Russia (October 22) to halt Ankara’s fighting with the Kurds have been marred by violations.
As Lebanon Melts Down, Can it Avert Total Collapse?
As Lebanon marks the seven-month anniversary of the catastrophic blast at the Beirut port last August 4, the country appears to be in a rapidly accelerating free fall. Lebanon’s currency continues to plummet in value, hitting new lows this week. With foreign exchange reserves falling, Lebanese officials have raised fresh concerns that the country may soon not be able to import key necessities such as food and fuel. Meanwhile, despite a COVID pandemic surge, angry Lebanese have taken to the streets across the country, protesting the rapidly deteriorating economic and social conditions. At the same time, efforts to form a new cabinet following the government’s collapse last August remain stalemated.
Iran and Israel Are Racing Toward Confrontation in Syria
Ties between Tehran and Damascus have been close since the 1979 revolution, but the relationship deepened after Syria’s civil war erupted in 2011. With the Assad regime’s survival at stake, Tehran doubled down on its support, providing critical military assistance—fighters and strategists—and economic aid estimated to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Is the Middle East on the Verge of a Wider War?
Three months after the Hamas terror attack on Israel, reverberations from the ensuing conflict in Gaza threaten to engulf the region in a wider war.
As Hezbollah-Israel Tensions Simmer, Lebanon’s Domestic Crises Drag On
Nearly six months after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, tensions in two key flashpoints — Lebanon and Syria — continue to rise with significant Israeli airstrikes in both countries, leading to the highest death tolls in each country since October 7. Amid these rising tensions, ongoing clashes between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) threaten to escalate into a wider war. At the same time, Lebanon continues to reel from a series of crises that have unfolded over the past four and a half years, highlighting Lebanon’s perilous position as the Gaza conflict continues to reverberate throughout the region.
Governance Challenges in Raqqa after the Islamic State
The fall of the Syrian city of Raqqa—the capital of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS)’s caliphate—will be a critical defeat for IS. Yet the success of the counter-campaign will ultimately...
Promoting Middle East Democracy II: Arab Initiatives (Arabic Edition)
Summary The 9/11 attacks shattered the conventional wisdom that the Middle East’s stability— anchored by the region’s authoritarian governments—could endure indefinitely and would come at little cost to U.S. interests. Energized by external calls for democratic change, numerous elements in the region—nongovernmental, government, and multilateral—have generated reform initiatives.
Promoting Middle East Democracy: European Initiatives (Arabic Edition)
Summary With the end of the Cold War, major geopolitical shifts prompted southern Europe to reorient its strategic landscape toward the southern Mediterranean. From a European vantage point, the Mediterranean's strategic importance centers on migration, energy dependence, security/counterterrorism, and trade.
Lebanon’s Parliamentary Elections:
The June 7th parliamentary elections mark another important step in Lebanon’s postcivil war transition. The Cedar Revolution opened a new chapter in Lebanese history, inaugurating the end of outright Syrian hegemony. The mass protest movement mobilized following the February 14, 2005, assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri forced the Syrian military to withdraw in April 2005 after thirty years of occupation.