Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
What Afghanistan Teaches Us About Evidence-Based Policy
Even as the debate over the lessons learned by the U.S. government in Afghanistan continues, several clear conclusions have emerged. One is that U.S. agencies repeatedly underestimated the time and resources needed to support a nation wracked by decades of war, while they failed to follow a consistent plan for civilian recovery efforts. U.S. personnel also lacked the training needed to be successful in the field, and monitoring and evaluation efforts did not receive the policy attention required to enable course corrections and learning.
How to Mitigate Afghanistan’s Economic and Humanitarian Crises
Afghanistan is teetering on the brink of a famine and economic collapse. Millions face the prospect of falling into poverty, starvation and even death. On December 22, the U.S. Treasury Department and United Nations Security Council provided sanctions relief for humanitarian assistance flowing to Afghanistan. USIP’s William Byrd says these actions are welcome but insufficient and discusses what more can be done to ensure the delivery of essential, life-saving aid to the Afghan people.
Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Dispute Heats Up
In at least two incidents in late December and early January, Afghan Taliban soldiers intervened to block an ongoing Pakistani project to erect fencing along the shared border between Afghanistan and Pakistan — the demarcation of which prior Afghan governments have never accepted. Despite attempts to resolve the issue diplomatically, and the Taliban’s dependence on Pakistan as a bridge to the international community, both sides remain at odds over the fence. USIP’s Richard Olson, Asfandyar Mir and Andrew Watkins assess the implications of this border dispute for Afghanistan and Pakistan’s bilateral relationship and the region at large.
After the Taliban’s Takeover: Pakistan’s TTP problem
In 2021, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgency escalated its challenge against Pakistan. Operating from bases in Afghanistan, and with a growing presence inside Pakistan, the group mounted an increasing number of attacks against Pakistani security forces — as well as against some critical Chinese interests in Pakistan. The insurgency also showed renewed political strength by bringing in splintered factions and improving internal cohesion. Additionally, al-Qaeda signaled its continued alliance with the TTP. On Tuesday, after an attack by the TTP on the police in Pakistan’s capital city of Islamabad, Pakistan’s Interior Minister warned that more attacks by the group are likely.
Taliban Are Collecting Revenue — But How Are They Spending It?
Although economic and humanitarian conditions in Afghanistan continue to deteriorate, the Taliban have taken some positive steps toward financial stability by publishing a fiscally responsible three-month budget and raising considerable amounts of domestic revenue — especially through customs duties, which have risen with a crackdown on corruption.
Afghanistan’s Frozen Foreign Exchange Reserves: What Happened, What’s Next
President Biden’s executive order blocking more than $7 billion of Afghan foreign currency reserves held at the U.S. central bank left confusion and consternation in its wake. And no wonder: The administration was seeking to balance a complex set of legal, foreign policy and political considerations.
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Helps the Taliban and Makes Afghans Worse Off
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an acute disaster for Ukraine and Europe. But it also has a profound geopolitical impact — one that will have ripple effects for the major humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan. An active war in Europe is bad news for Afghanistan, as this draws away resources, sympathy and attention from the millions of Afghans that are also struggling to get cash, food and protection from human rights abuse. And the Taliban stand to benefit, since they no longer appear to be the world’s most notorious aggressor and will gain political space to consolidate their control over the country.
Ukraine War Fallout Will Damage Fragile States and the Poor
The world is gripped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine — already the most destructive European conventional military conflict since World War II. The damage being done most tragically to Ukraine, indirectly to Europe (not least the burden of refugee inflows) and to Russia (including as a result of crushing sanctions) is only too obvious. But the repercussions will be wider — for the global economy more generally and disproportionately for poorer countries, especially those affected by conflict and state fragility.
Taliban’s Ban on Girls’ Education in Afghanistan
On March 23, the first day of the school year in Afghanistan, eager female students arriving for class found closed gates and armed Taliban guards. Despite the de facto authorities’ assurances only days earlier that schools would reopen for girls above sixth grade, they had barred girls from further education.
Afghanistan Withdrawal Should Be Based on Conditions, Not Timelines
The Taliban’s tactic of running out the clock on the U.S. troop presence may bear fruit after the announcement on Tuesday that U.S. forces will reduce to 2,500 by January 15. The Trump administration successfully created leverage by engaging directly with the Taliban to meet their paramount goal of a U.S. withdrawal in exchange for genuine peace talks and counterterrorism guarantees. This strategy brought about unprecedented negotiations between Afghan government representatives and the Taliban in Doha. A walk down a conditions-based path to peace, long and winding as it may be, had begun.