Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Five Messages Biden Should Take from His Middle East Trip: A Regional Perspective
Before and since President Biden took office, debates have proliferated around an American “retrenchment” from the Middle East. The administration has consistently asserted that it is not withdrawing from the region, only aligning strategy and resources — “right-sizing” in the parlance of the moment. Still, most of the region remains unconvinced.
Israel-Gaza Conflict: A Short Confrontation with Disproportionate Implications
No one was ever in doubt about the damage that the Israeli army can inflict on Gaza, or in the occupied territories in general, in any military confrontation. The gap in the balance of power is one of the widest in the region. This has been the case in the wars that took place in 2008, 2012, 2014, and 2021, and in the latest military attack that ended on August 7, 2022. The duration of the conflict, the extent of the destruction in Gaza, the regional and international response and other factors varied widely. However, unsurprisingly, like in previous confrontations, each side claims that to some extent it was able to achieve its objectives.
Could the Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Deal be a Game-Changer?
Israel, Lebanon and the United States announced this week that a deal has been reached between Israel and Lebanon on each country’s maritime border. Negotiations between the parties over the 330-square-miles of the Mediterranean Sea have proceeded with stops and starts since 2020, but over the past few months edged toward a mutually acceptable outcome. Under the agreement, the contested waters will be divided by a line straddling the “Qana” natural gas field. Both parties would be able to produce gas on their side of the line, in addition to royalty arrangements agreed upon. A buoy line will remain between the two countries.
How the Israel-Hamas War Impacts Regional Relations
Hours before President Biden was to land in Israel last week, a missile hit Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza, killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in one of the deadliest incidents since this war began. This horrific incident points to a war that is of a different scale and significance than many previous rounds of violent confrontation and that will have reverberations throughout the Middle East. In recent days, tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets in rage and world leaders are calling for the protection of civilians and an immediate cease-fire in the face of the siege and escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza, resulting in life-threatening shortages of water, electricity, fuel, food and life-saving medical supplies.
Will the Israel-Hamas War Spiral into a Wider Conflict?
With the Israel-Hamas war poised to enter its fourth week, the conflict continues to escalate. The Israeli military announced on October 25 it had struck more than 7,000 targets inside Gaza, ranking the current military campaign among the most intense globally in recent memory. The conflict has resulted in an estimated 1,400 Israelis killed, according to Israeli government sources and more than 6,500 Gazans killed, according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry. More than 200 hostages are held captive in Gaza.
What China Wants in the Middle East
Amid the current Middle East crisis, China has three objectives: Beijing seeks a semblance of peace in the Middle East, hopes for a halt to the Israel-Hamas conflict and wants to project an image of a responsible great power. But the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) almost certainly won’t make any meaningful contribution toward Middle East peace, nor is it likely to take serious steps to facilitate an agreement to suspend hostilities in Gaza. Yet, amid not delivering on objectives one and two, the CCP is well postured to advance its third objective of making itself look good in the eyes of three audiences: the Chinese people, the Arab street and the Global South.
How Does the Israel-Hamas War Impact Russia and Ukraine?
Amid Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine, Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel and Israel’s military response in Gaza has significant and challenging repercussions for both countries and for U.S. support for Ukraine’s defense. Both Ukraine and Russia are seeking political and diplomatic support from the international community, which is watching closely to see who supports and who condemns Hamas and Israeli actions. At the same time, the war in Gaza threatens to take global attention and resources away from Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself. This change in focus could lead to a diminution of economic and military assistance for that embattled country.
Amid War in the Middle East, India-Israel Ties Reach New Milestone
India’s official response to the Israel-Hamas war reflects a meaningful and likely durable strategic tilt toward Israel by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Yet India’s shift should not be misinterpreted as a broader alignment with the United States or any other “camp” in this bitter contest. The maxim that Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has repeated in other fraught geopolitical contexts holds equally true for India’s stance in the Middle East: “Do not think it’s necessary for India to join any axis. India is entitled to make its own choices which will be a balance of its values and interests.”
Israel-Hamas War Divides Latin America Along Partisan Lines
As casualties mount in the Israel-Hamas conflict, many Latin American leaders are intensifying their criticism of the Israeli government. Bolivia recently became the first country to sever ties with Israel; Chile, Colombia and Honduras recalled their ambassadors for consultations; and diplomats from Argentina, Brazil and Mexico have blasted Israel for the bloodshed, calling for an immediate end to hostilities.
Indonesia and the U.S. Strengthen Ties under Cloud of Gaza War
U.S. President Joe Biden and Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced a new comprehensive strategic partnership when the two leaders met at the White House on November 13. The Indonesian leader, popularly known as Jokowi, said he hoped the partnership will “contribute to regional and global peace and prosperity.” The White House meeting took place ahead of Biden’s highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco on November 15. However, Jokowi’s call for the United States to do more to end the war in the Gaza Strip dominated the headlines coming out of the meeting.