Question And Answer
Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
In Russia’s Hybrid War on Europe, Moldova’s Critical Next 15 Months
A rising risk in southeast Europe is Russia’s sharpening of conflicts to block Moldova’s effort to join the European Union. The Kremlin is escalating a hybrid campaign to manipulate three Moldovan elections over the next 15 months. Moscow last week hosted the formation of a political bloc around its primary Moldovan ally, a fugitive billionaire convicted of the country’s worst-ever bank fraud — and sent a startling flood of pre-election cash that police seized at Moldova’s main airport. This is a critical season for Moldova’s democratic allies to help it defeat Russian disinformation and election subversion.
Ambassador William Taylor on the Latest U.S. Aid to Ukraine
The latest round of U.S. military aid to Ukraine will help halt Russia’s slow, grinding advance. But more long-term aid is needed to not only push back Russian forces, but to deter another future invasion, says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor. “The only way that this war is going to end is for [Putin’s] cause … to end.”
Ukraine’s New U.S. Lifeline: Why It’s Vital and What’s Next
This week’s U.S. approval of nearly $61 billion in funds for Ukraine’s defense is a lifeline in the Ukrainians’ struggle against Russia’s unprovoked invasion and the assault on peace and rule of law in Europe and beyond. Ukrainian troops have been rationing ammunition, their lack of defensive missiles has exposed Ukrainian cities to Russian aerial attacks — and many military analysts predicted a probable collapse on part of Ukraine’s eastern defensive lines. While this U.S. action boosts Ukrainians’ capacities and morale, ending this war will need further funds, forces and security measures for those fighting and suffering for their survival — and for the redemption of international peace through rule of law.
What Sweden’s Accession Shows About NATO’s Future
As NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary, it has cause to celebrate Sweden’s addition as the 32nd member of the alliance. The Nordic country’s accession came after a grueling, two-year fight with NATO member states Turkey and Hungary, both of which extracted concessions in exchange for allowing the process to move forward. Sweden’s entry will improve NATO’s capabilities and greatly reduce the vulnerability of its northeastern flank. But the difficulties it took to reach this point raise serious questions about the alliance’s ability to cohere around shared political and strategic objectives in a time of crisis.
Whither NATO at 75?
NATO marked its 75th anniversary last week at a celebration in Brussels. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has injected the alliance with new life and resolve, the 32-member collective security pact is also wrestling with its future in a world of growing great power competition. In 2022, NATO formally identified for the first time China as a challenge to its interests and collective security. As NATO continues to support Ukraine and look to future global challenges, it also has internal issues to address, ranging from individual member defense spending to the problems posed by the need for collective decision-making among 32 members.
Asfandyar Mir on Why ISIS-K Attacked Moscow
ISIS-K’s recent attack on the Russian capital was, in part, intended to assert the organization’s growing capacity to inflict terror beyond its home base of Afghanistan. “By reaching Moscow, ISIS-K is trying to signal it has the geographic reach to hit anywhere in the world,” says USIP’s Asfandyar Mir.
Moscow Concert Hall Attack Will Have Far-Reaching Impact
On Friday, terrorists attacked the Crocus City Hall outside Moscow leaving 140 people dead and 80 others critically wounded. Soon after, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack. The terrorist group, which is headquartered in Iraq and Syria, has several branches, including in South and Central Asia. Press reports suggest the U.S. government believes the Afghanistan-based affiliate of the Islamic State, ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), was behind the attack. The Biden administration has publicly noted that it had warned the Russian government of the terrorism threat in early March in line with the procedure of “Duty to Warn.”
Angela Stent on the Terror Attack in Moscow
While ISIS has claimed responsibility for the devastating terror attack in Moscow, Putin has baselessly tried to shift the blame to Ukraine, says USIP’s Angela Stent: “[Putin] wants to use this to increase repression at home … and also to pursue a more aggressive path in Ukraine.”
Putin’s Next Term: More Repression in Russia, Aggression in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin views his election for a fifth term as president as a plebiscite to cement his legitimacy as a great wartime leader leading an existential fight to save Russia from Ukrainian “Nazis” and from Western threats to Russia’s very existence as a great power and a unique civilization.
War and the Church in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin’s war to reverse Ukraine’s independence includes religion. For centuries, the Russian Orthodox Church bolstered Moscow’s rule by wielding ecclesiastical authority over Ukrainian churches. Since early 2019, Ukraine has had a self-governing Orthodox Church of Ukraine. Russia’s invasion has sharpened tensions between it and the rival branch historically linked to Moscow. Any conciliation between them could shrink areas for conflict — and the Kremlin’s ability to stir chaos — in a postwar Ukraine. It would bolster Ukraine’s future stability and reinforce a decline in Russia’s historically massive influence across the Orthodox Christian world. But can Ukrainians make that happen?