U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Tim Farley: Dr. Mary Speck with the United States Institute of Peace. Welcome to POTUS. Thanks for being on the show today.

Mary Speck: Thank you for having me.

Tim Farley: Let's talk about the, I mentioned, you write “geography makes this region vulnerable”, and “it's all location, location, location for Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras.” Why so?

Mary Speck: Well, South American drugs, and this has been true for a couple decades, at least, generally land in Central America on their way north. It's a very poor region, has lots of remote areas where you could have land via air, but especially along the coast of Honduras at this time. It's an easy place to enter drugs because of remote locations, poor populations and also very under qualified, under motivated, corrupt security forces.

Tim Farley: You note that the United States remains the region's “lodestar, economically, politically and culturally.” How so?

Mary Speck: Well Central Americans have long ties with the United States. It's the major trading partner and that is not true in South America. China is the major trading partner for most, if not all, South American countries, with the exception of Colombia. The United States remains the largest trading partner, although, with the exception of Guatemala and Belize, the other countries now recognize China and not Taiwan, but also, of course, emigration creates these strong cultural ties. And unlike South American countries, which have tended to be more nationalistic and more skeptical, the United States, Central Americans in general have very positive views of the United States.

Tim Farley: You mentioned China and in the piece, you write, ”in recent years, China has courted Central American governments, but many Chinese promises have failed to come to fruition.” Have the cuts in USAID, the funding cuts there, have they opened a door for China in this region?

Mary Speck: Well, yes, China already has given some very showy, like to give showy gifts. It hasn't really invested in that case, it has in that indicate it hasn't really given the productive investment that Central America really needs to bring its economy forward. But it does build stadiums, for example, in El Salvador, and a shiny library right on the central plaza of San Salvador. So it gives a lot of investments, and it even appears at local areas. It's clearly stepping up its activity in this region in order to support Central Americans. It not so much because it’s economically important to them, but because they obviously want to be able to operate in the United States backyard.

Tim Farley: Again, we are speaking with Dr. Mary Speck, senior expert of the Latin America program for the United States Institute of Peace. As you note that northern Central America remains “fragile, both politically and economically,” and you note that there has been a sort of ”failure of elected governments to ensure citizen safety or provide stable, decently paid employment.” What is the status of the governments of those countries?

Mary Speck: Well, El Salvador, of course, has made tremendous progress. It’s crime rates and homicide rates, which is what we usually measure, have gone down dramatically under the state of exception that Nayib Bukele has imposed, the President Bukele, but at a tremendous cost, at the cost of due process rights. You have 10s of 1000s of the suspects in jail, who have not faced trial and may never face trial. In the other countries you've experimented with iron fist policies, but they haven't made the dramatic gains that you have in El Salvador. Although crime has gone down in all of these countries, but the problem is security forces are poorly paid, they're easily corrupted. In the case of Honduras and Guatemala, they face not only street gangs, which is the main problem in El Salvador, they face organized crime, and this is especially a problem at the local level. Right now in Honduras, you're beginning an electoral campaign, and already a couple mayors have been killed. This is where organized crime has the most power, at the local level. Its ability to intimidate elected officials, and, of course, to corrupt the police, is phenomenal throughout the region, and this makes it very difficult to bring down violence and to convince people that democracy really works, and so you have an erosion of faith and elected leaders.

Tim Farley: Is democracy the preferred form of government? I gather from your piece that it is not necessarily. It doesn't get a ringing endorsement, if you will, from the populace.

Mary Speck: The confidence in democracy has been eroding. Many people in the pluralities, if not majorities in many countries, say, well, if an authoritarian government, if a non-democratic government, can solve the problems, we prefer it, so they don't agree with the old what you call the Churchillian formula, that democracy is the best form of government, the worst form of government, except for all the others. So, there is an erosion of faith.

Tim Farley: Dr. Mary Speck, senior expert, Latin America program for the United States Institute of Peace. You note that there is a cautionary tale to be derived from Nicaragua, “President Daniel Ortega has pretty much undertaken and undermined the independence of electoral authorities. It is a virtual dictatorship.” What is the lesson and the cautionary tale that we need to take from Nicaragua?

Mary Speck: Well, Nicaragua just gradually eroded the independence of the court, started attacking civil society, and we're seeing the same things happening in other countries. With El Salvador, prior to imposing the state of exception, Bukele basically took control of the court. There are controversies over corruption of the courts and the lack of independence of the courts in places like Honduras, where the leftist government has been attacking court judicial independence, but also attacking civil society in the press. In Guatemala, there is a sign of hope, because Arévalo was elected despite a previous government which had also tried to restrict civil society and attacked and even arrested journalists. So, it's a mixed bag in the region, but there are real danger signs in all three of these countries that they could go in the same direction as Nicaragua.

Tim Farley: I also note that you say 200,000 some citizens have emigrated from Nicaragua. I'm wondering, are they trying to get to the US?

Mary Speck: Well, they have tried to get to the United States, definitely. They're among the, Central America has long been a source of undocumented migration to the United States, northern Central America, primarily. But Nicaraguans have increased in recent years and of course, from other countries. Venezuelans have also migrated in tremendous numbers, and that's fleeing the collapse of democracy and the economy in Venezuela and high crime rates also.

Tim Farley: It is an interesting subject, and one will continue to watch. Dr. Mary Speck, senior expert, Latin America program for the United States Institute of Peace. Thank you so much for joining us here on POTUS.

Mary Speck: Thank you for having me.