KEY TAKEAWAYS
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Once seen as a promising democracy in West Africa, Guinea has been mired in political turmoil in recent years — especially in the wake of the country’s 2021 military coup. After initially promising a smooth transition to democracy, the ruling junta led by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya has repeatedly postponed key milestones, cracked down on opposition, restricted media and committed a number of human rights violations.
The resulting unrest has raised concerns about the junta’s commitment to a democratic future. It also reflects the broader challenges facing the region: Amid growing violent extremism and political instability throughout West Africa, coup regimes in nearby Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are grappling with similar governance and security crises. Meanwhile, China has exploited Guinea’s desire for investment in sectors such as mining to implement projects that threaten to spark local tensions and fund the junta’s grip on power.
However, a successful democratic transition could turn Guinea into a reliable partner for U.S. security interests in a region wracked by terrorism and malign actors. Additionally, Guinea’s rich natural resources — including bauxite, gold and iron ore — make Guinea’s stability crucial for regional and global markets that rely on critical minerals.
The 2021 military coup ousted President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who had initially rose to power in 2010 on a wave of democratic hope. However, Condé’s rule became marred by corruption scandals, governance failures and widespread poverty — all of which eroded public trust and ultimately fueled his removal.
Since the coup, Guinea has been under military rule. In an agreement with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Doumbouya pledged to implement a 10-point roadmap and hold presidential elections by December 2024. The commitment included drafting a new constitution, conducting a national census, updating electoral lists, and organizing communal, regional, legislative and presidential elections. However, the junta has failed to initiate these milestones, raising severe doubts about restoring civilian rule.
Instead, the military government has suppressed dissent by banning public protests, imprisoning journalists for reporting on corruption and restricting media access — further shrinking already limited civic space in the country and leaving Guinea’s future hanging in the balance.
Political tensions have fueled widespread protest and civil unrest. In January 2025, civil society organizations and opposition groups organized protests in response to the ruling junta's failure to meet the December 2024 deadline for presidential elections.
In response, protests in the capital Conakry were met with a violent crackdown by the junta, leading to casualties and mass arrests and prompting international condemnation. Rather than an escalation, this tragic incident was in line with the junta’s established propensity to use violence against dissent, with Amnesty International estimating that security forces killed at least 47 people during protests against the junta between June 2022 and March 2024.
Amid these political tensions, media censorship has intensified, triggering protests from journalist and press unions. The situation worsened in December 2024 with the abduction of investigative journalist Habib Marouane Kamara. As of this writing, there has been no official acknowledgement of his whereabouts — raising fears over press freedom and journalist safety in Guinea.
Meanwhile, other forced disappearances and arbitrary arrests have further highlighted Guinea’s deteriorating human rights situations. The abduction and disappearance of civil society leaders Oumar Sylla and Mamadou Billo Bah in July 2024 remains unresolved, with no official acknowledgement of their detention by security forces.
As of February 2025, Guinea remains under military rule, with the junta facing mounting criticism for delaying transitional milestones. The most recent Afrobarometer survey reveals that Guineans are widely dissatisfied with the government’s performance and strongly favor democracy over any other form of governance.
Meanwhile, there are more ominous signs that Doumbouya and the junta have no intention of relinquishing power.
In October 2024, the junta dissolved 53 political parties and placed 54 others under three months of observation in an unprecedented political crackdown. Then in December, leading opposition figure Aliou Bah was arrested and subsequently sentenced to two years in prison for “defamation” of the junta. And just a few days after General Doumbouya proclaimed 2025 as “a crucial electoral year” in his New Year’s address, junta spokesperson Osumane Diallo said it would be “impossible to hold all elections in 2025” and that the process would start with a constitutional referendum that would take place before the end of the first half of the year.
Even if such a referendum were to take place, the process would still need to garner popular legitimacy. And given the junta’s ongoing (and escalating) crackdown on opposition, hopes for an open political dialogue on constitutional reforms seem to be fading by the day.
In the meantime, a leading opposition group in Guinea has called for resistance against General Doumbouya’s potential presidential candidacy — a sign that pro-democracy Guineans are preparing to push back against the junta’s attempts to legitimize itself. Additionally, Guinea’s main opposition parties have called for a withdrawal from the junta-led legislative body after the ruling junta missed another deadline for returning to democratic rule. This highlights how the junta’s repression has not led to greater security, but rather to increased instability.
Over the years, China has increased its investments in Guinea, particularly in the mining and infrastructure sectors. In 2017, the governments of Guinea and China signed a framework agreement that offered Guinea the potential for $1 billion per year in infrastructure projects in exchange for Chinese access to the country’s mineral wealth. China’s Baowu Steel recently secured a stake in the Simandou project, the world’s largest untapped high-grade iron ore reserve. The project is anticipated to generate about $20 billion in infrastructure and development revenue and create thousands of jobs — factors that could support Guinea’s long-struggling economy.
However, Chinese investment in the project will also fill the junta’s coffers and fuel more corruption and graft. This will in turn reduce the incentives for a peaceful transition to a civilian-led government and potentially worsen the already dangerous political tensions in the country, further fueling instability and undermining governance.
Meanwhile, the Simandou project itself could spark inter-ethnic and communal violence, incentivize labor exploitation, and create environmental hazards — all risks that China overlooks.
For starters, the Simandou mining project could lead to competition between different groups for control over land and resources — a common problem in areas where mining disrupts local communities. Workers at the project also may face unsafe working conditions and low wages, particularly given weak regulatory oversight in Guinea, which could lead to labor tensions. Additionally, environmental degradation is a concern, as mining operations often result in water pollution and deforestation.
Disruption, instability and insecurity in Guinea … would affect a wide range of [U.S.] industries such as aerospace, defense and technology.
With political tensions already high in Guinea, and without a plan to mitigate risks associated with mining, these issues could fuel larger conflicts within Guinea and disrupt global supply chains for critical minerals. Disruption, instability and insecurity in Guinea could drive up costs for U.S. companies reliant on these resources, which would affect a wide range of industries such as aerospace, defense and technology.
A well-governed Guinea could attract higher foreign investments, lift millions of Guineans out of poverty, and serve as a crucial partner for U.S. strategic interests in West Africa. But the junta’s authoritarian turn and China’s potentially destabilizing influence have put Guinea on a downward trajectory.
To counter, the United States can prioritize proactive engagement that focuses on incentivizing a return to civilian-led governance while nurturing an environment for American companies to invest in Guinea’s critical minerals as an alternative to China’s corrosive approach.
Civilian-led governance remains the best, and possibly only, option for Guinea’s stability. In contrast to the military junta’s suppression — which leaves little to no room for public grievances to be addressed in efficient and responsive ways — civilian-led governments can foster greater political stability and accountability through democratic elections and institutions.
The United States should also engage to secure its economic interests, which can also foster mutually beneficial outcomes for both Americans and Guineans. Unlike China’s focus on extracting resources primarily for its own benefits, the U.S. has the opportunity to offer a broader partnership that is rooted in shared economic growth and long-term stability.
By investing in Guinea’s infrastructure, technology and natural resources, the U.S. can help the country build a diversified and resilient economy that can lay the groundwork for a partnership rooted in transparency and governance reform. Meanwhile, American companies can gain access to Guinea’s rich natural resources — especially in sectors like mining, agriculture and energy — which are vital to the global market.
Furthermore, a more stable, democratic Guinea can prove to be a reliable partner for regional security on issues like countering violent extremism. Conversely, increased instability in Guinea can contribute to broader regional security challenges, including the spread of armed insurgencies and forced migration. The Sahel region, already a hotspot for violent extremist groups, could see further destabilization if Guinea’s governance weakens, creating additional threats to global counterterrorism efforts. Enhancing Guinea’s political stability, governance and economic resilience supports U.S. national security interests by preventing power vacuums that destabilizing forces could exploit.