U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: Joining us now, Don Jensen, the USIP senior adviser for Russia and Europe. He joins us now, Don, welcome and good morning. How are you?

Donald Jensen: Good morning. Thank you for having me.

Laura Coates: Thank you for joining. We are now two years into the full-scale invasion into Ukraine by Russia. We've heard the appeals consistently from the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. Where does this war stand currently?

Donald Jensen: Well, it seems like a different world from two years ago, doesn't it? The world has changed, changed by the war and the world changes have affected the fighting on the battlefield. So, we are, what I would not say a stalemate, we are at a point of positional warfare where the front and barely moves. Both sides have unique strengths. Both sides have strong vulnerabilities. So, until these uncertainties play out in the next year or two, I think we're going to have a drawn-out conflict but predicting it going one way or the other is extremely difficult. A lot depends on what happens outside the battlefield.

Laura Coates: And that includes on Capitol Hill with funding, right?

Donald Jensen: Well, I can't comment on U.S. politics, let's just say that Putin counts on the West, Germany, Italy, NATO, to weaken its support. And they hope that by undermining Zelensky's position at home, as well as the West getting tired of the war, that, that will give Moscow an advantage on the battlefield. And do what they want to do, which is take over the country, replace Zelensky and then challenge NATO more directly.

Laura Coates: When you look at the challenge to NATO, I mean, there have been conversations about, you know, from former presidents, from a former president from the political scene, talking about NATO as a whole and funding. But, when you talk about Putin specifically, and what he may be looking at to see if either propaganda can be successful, or internal dissent in other places could help aid in his own efforts. There are provocations that we have to address, and one includes the death of Navalny. And he has died under mysterious circumstances, shall we say, although in a penal colony, and he was Putin's number one adversary politically. What impact do you think that is having on how people are viewing this invasion into Ukraine and the power of Putin more broadly?

Donald Jensen: Well, let me divide that into two parts, if I might, number one, on the issue of provocation. Russia is very much stepping up its level of provocation. You might have read that the day that Navalny died. Apparently, the Russian intelligence services killed a defector from Russia to Ukraine, who had gone over to the Ukrainian side last year. By all accounts, they're murky, but clearly pointing in one direction. Russia is stepping up its activity overseas in Africa. And also, apparently, in terms of infiltrating some of the so-called Russian opposition groups, and they are opposition who are living in the West. The second part would be the question of Navalny’s death. Unfortunately, the tragedy is that Navalny is one of the few remaining opposition leaders inside Russia, who stayed there and work to change the regime from the inside. A lot of the other opposition leaders are overseas working to undermine the Putin regime from France or Brussels or England or elsewhere. So, this is not like '89, '90, '91, with Gorbachev where a lot of the pressure for change came from below, inside Russia. The polls overwhelmingly show that most Russians support the war. Navalny support, tragic is what happened to hin, was actually really pretty low, nine or 10%, according to the public opinion polls. So, Putin is creating a hermetically sealed country where there'll be no threat to his rule whatsoever. And that's, I think, the ultimate reason why they let him [Unintelligible] or killed Navalny when he was in prison.

Laura Coates: You know, the idea that one person's opposition obviously can spark, you know, a movement by millions. There were many who protested and attended vigils who are then handed some sort of, you know, military summons as well. But does that indicate his power? If the choice was and if the actions were directly ordered from Putin to have Navalny killed. Does that suggest that Putin feels vulnerable within his country or simply that is an affront that can't be tolerated?

Donald Jensen: That is the central question about the future of the Putin regime. On the one hand, Putin does whatever he wants and appears on the surface to be unchallenged and doesn't like and let's face it, there's a cruelty in venality there anybody contradicting what he wants. But there are these glimmering signs, sometimes, most recently, the Prigozhin uprising last June, as you might recall, that all is not as strong behind Putin’s wall, as it might seem. And that's really an analytical problem that we have to look at much more closely. My personal view is that Putin's rule is not as strong or as unanimously supportive, especially in the elite as otherwise might be the case. But they're cowards. They're intimidated for now. But again, when you saw that crack last June, immediately, there was a very strange behavior from of all the so-called elites around Putin, which indicated they were pausing they were stepping back and seeing how it turned out, that probably is still a potential outcome there. But the problem is on the surface, Putin has cowed everybody, and for now, we've got to deal with the [Unintelligible] and cruel Putin, as well as realize that things behind the scenes may not be quite as hunky dory as the Kremlin wants.

Laura Coates: What's the impact of President Biden having met with Mrs. Navalny while in California?

Donald Jensen: Well, I think if you go back to the end of the Soviet Union, the issue of moral support from the West, for these values that you mentioned, for democracy and Russia, for a softer regime, for Russia rejoining the West. These are all very important things. And it's important that all Western leaders here in the UK and NATO, certainly in Eastern Europe, which has been vocally strong against Putin, it's important that these values are articulated, not once but frequently. Whether it will have any short-term effect, I doubt. But endorsing Mrs. Navalny in California last week, the cause that her husband's symbolized, her bravery, I think that does make a difference in the long the long run. We've got to be patient. And that's really very hard for societies in the West which are much more free, where people are much more used to saying what they want. But these expressions of support from the Western leadership have indeed made a difference and will make a difference. But we just don't see it immediately. But they pay attention. Putin certainly pays attention. I read the Russian press every day, they follow things minutely what Biden says and what others say. So, I strongly endorsed this kind of moral diplomacy, as a way to push back on the Putin regime.

Laura Coates: And Don, we only have about a minute left and sorry to do that to you, but the latest U.S. sanctions, are those viewed as effective within Russia?

Donald Jensen: Well, you use the passive voice, they have had some effect, according to experts, and around the world who studied these kinds of things. But Russia, let's face it has pivoted to other kinds of economic arrangements that minimize the economic hurt. Russia has found third parties who provide them with high technology, that weapons can be used. That includes the Chinese. So, there are a lot of get arounds Russia has found. So, while it's important that we keep the sanctions tight. There are holes, there are leaks. And that is only one part of a broader strategy, including the moral agenda that I mentioned, to push back against the Kremlin.

Laura Coates: This has been really, really informative. Thank you so much for joining us today. Don Jensen, the U.S. Institute of Peace senior adviser for Russia and Europe. We appreciate your time and unpacking all these important issues for us today. Thank you.

Donald Jensen: Thank you.