As Israel heads toward a fourth election in two years, USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen says the incoming Biden administration will need to engage in a “balancing act” to “navigate this situation and not start off with a rocky, tempestuous relationship.”
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
Jordan has long been one of the United States closest allies in the Middle East and its leader, King Abdullah II, is typically the first Arab leader to meet with a new U.S. president. But when Abdullah met with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, the two leaders had to navigate profound differences over what happens next in Gaza amid a fragile cease-fire. Trump’s proposal to relocate Gazans to Egypt and Jordan has been met with sharp rejection by both countries and the broader region. The president has suggested that he may withhold aid to Egypt and Jordan if they don’t agree to take Palestinians from Gaza.
For over seven decades, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — and its broader regional reverberations — has shaped Middle East politics and impacted U.S. interests in the region. Hamas’ unprecedented terror attack on October 7, 2023, the Israeli military response in Gaza and the implications for neighboring Jordan and Egypt — as well as seismic ripples in Lebanon and Syria — have sparked a new phase in the conflict’s and the region’s trajectory.
On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu becomes the first foreign leader to meet with President Donald Trump since his return to the White House. The visit comes as a fragile but holding cease-fire in Gaza approaches the midway point of its initial six-week phase, and as phase two of the agreement’s prescribed negotiations begin, with critical questions surrounding Gaza’s transitional security and governance to be decided. It also comes against a backdrop of a recently extended cease-fire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, expressed interest by both Trump and Netanyahu in advancing Israeli-Saudi normalization, and international concern over Iran’s nuclear threshold, despite the setbacks dealt to the “Axis of Resistance.”
Using I2U2 as its main case study, this discussion paper looks specifically at New Delhi’s rationale for pursuing minilaterals that extend beyond bilateral ties and avoid the rigidities associated with formal multilateral groupings. I2U2 is the first minilateral involving India and the United States in the Middle East and also offers an example of how the two countries may work cooperatively on regional initiatives that complement one another’s strategic and economic interests.