KEY TAKEAWAYS
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Jordan has long been one of the United States closest allies in the Middle East and its leader, King Abdullah II, is typically the first Arab leader to meet with a new U.S. president. But when Abdullah met with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, the two leaders had to navigate profound differences over what happens next in Gaza amid a fragile cease-fire. Trump’s proposal to relocate Gazans to Egypt and Jordan has been met with sharp rejection by both countries and the broader region. The president has suggested that he may withhold aid to Egypt and Jordan if they don’t agree to take Palestinians from Gaza.
Both the United States and Jordan reap important strategic benefits from the bilateral relationship and Amman — which has had a peace treaty with Israel since 1994 — receives bipartisan support in Washington. Jordan has received nearly $30 billion in U.S. aid since 1949 and is a key U.S. counterterrorism partner and bulwark of regional security. In Washington, Abdullah had to navigate a delicate balancing act, seeking to reaffirm Jordan’s close ties with the U.S. while articulating his opposition to the Gaza plan.
USIP’s Farah Bdour looks at what’s at stake for Jordan in this crucial moment for the country and the region.
Bdour: King Abdullah II’s visit to Washington comes at a critical inflection point, as the Middle East grapples with strategic uncertainty and realignment. In the wake of Hamas’ October 7 terrorist attack, the long-standing balance of power has been upended, with territorial control and regional influence shifting in ways that could have unpredictable consequences for the region. These changes have created an increasingly fragile landscape, heightening Jordan’s role as a diplomatic bridge and regional stabilizer. Against this backdrop, the visit is not merely a reaffirmation of U.S.-Jordan relations but a strategic effort to shape the contours of a new regional order, one in which Jordan plays a key role.
During this high stakes visit, Abdullah will become the first Arab leader to meet with Trump since his return the White House. The king also met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Special Presidential Envoy for the Middle East Stephen Witkoff and key congressional leaders from both parties. These discussions will be pivotal in shaping the next phase of U.S.-Jordan relations, reinforcing Jordan’s role as a trusted U.S. ally and a cornerstone of regional stability. Additionally, the visit provides an opportunity to explore regional integration plans, further positioning Jordan as a key diplomatic player in the Middle East’s evolving economic, security and political landscape.
Beyond strengthening bilateral ties and advancing regional cooperation, the king used his visit for the more urgent purpose of pushing back against potential policies that could threaten Jordan’s security. At the core of these concerns is Trump’s emerging vision for Gaza, which proposes relocating its 2 million residents to Jordan and Egypt while the U.S. “buys and owns” the territory. The plan suggests transforming the war-ravaged enclave into a Mediterranean “Riviera,” with Arab states leading redevelopment efforts while ensuring Hamas does not regain control.
Bdour: From the moment this proposal was introduced, Jordan unequivocally rejected it, viewing it as a direct threat to its national security and demographic integrity. Amman’s position is not new; when Israel first floated the idea of forcibly relocating Gazans to Egypt at the outset of the Gaza war, Jordan firmly warned that any such displacement would be considered a “declaration of war.” Egypt was similarly adamant when, according to reports, the Biden administration and some European governments floated the possibility with them in private conversations.
In addition to the immediate security risks, Jordan’s demographic balance is at stake. Already home to two million Palestinian refugees, the kingdom faces the prospect of further displacement disrupting its delicate internal balance. This concern is not limited to Gaza. Ongoing Israeli military operations in the West Bank have intensified Jordan’s fears that deteriorating security conditions could pave the way for the “Gazafication” of the territory. If the current trajectory continues, the West Bank could face similar pressures as in Gaza, raising fears that Palestinians could either be forcibly pushed into Jordan or decide to migrate in search of better living conditions. The kingdom also worries that the worsening security and humanitarian situation in the West Bank could create conditions whereby Jordan finds itself under immense domestic public pressure to assume a security or administrative role in the territory — a scenario that would be a direct challenge to Jordan’s very existence.
Bdour: The Jordanian palace’s firm rejection has resonated across Jordanian society, where Trump’s proposal has triggered significant political and public backlash. Jordanian members of parliament have moved to reinforce the country’s legal stance, ensuring that opposition to forced displacement of Palestinians is enshrined in law. A group of lawmakers has introduced a draft law explicitly prohibiting the relocation of Palestinians to Jordan, asserting that Jordan belongs to Jordanians, while Palestine belongs to Palestinians, and that only the Palestinian people have the right to determine their own future. The bill categorically rejects any attempt to forcibly transfer Palestinians into Jordan and reaffirms the kingdom’s commitment to international treaties prohibiting demographic changes.
Beyond legislative efforts, public sentiment has mirrored the government’s firm stance. Demonstrations and public mobilization have surged, reflecting deep-rooted national sentiment and a collective rejection of external attempts to reshape Jordan’s demographics. Jordanians from all walks of life have taken to the streets in unwavering support of Abdullah’s position, in a display of unity against efforts viewed as compromising Jordanian identity. In short, the king’s position presents, and is understood by Jordanians, as a fundamental redline that the country refuses to cross.
Bdour: Despite Jordan’s clear and firm stance, President Trump has stated that he may cut U.S. aid to Jordan and Egypt if they refuse to accept displaced Gazans. This comes after Washington already imposed a broad foreign aid freeze, that included Jordan (but not Egypt), signaling a willingness to use financial pressure to enforce policy goals. For Jordan, however, this is not just a financial matter, it is a redline tied to national security and sovereignty.
Jordan’s leadership is focused on balancing defense of its national interests with preserving strategic partnerships.
Beyond financial and diplomatic considerations, the straining of U.S.-Jordan relations over this issue could have far-reaching geopolitical consequences. Jordan may feel forced to reevaluate key aspects of its regional policies, including its peace treaty and security cooperation with Israel. In such a context, Amman might find itself compelled to downgrade intelligence-sharing and counterterrorism efforts or freeze or even annul parts of the treaty with Israel. Such a shift — particularly at a time of heightened regional instability — would not only impact Jordan and Israel but would also weaken regional security frameworks, disrupt counterterrorism operations and complicate diplomatic efforts in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
For Jordan, maintaining a strong and balanced relationship with the U.S. is vital to its security and stability. At the same time, it cannot compromise on its sovereignty. As external pressures mount, therefore, Jordan’s leadership is focused on balancing defense of its national interests with preserving strategic partnerships and ensuring an understanding and appreciation for its long-term and pivotal role in regional security.
Bdour: In anticipation of his Washington visit, Abdullah launched a proactive diplomatic effort to underscore Jordan’s strategic role in regional stability and reaffirm its strong ties with the U.S. This included congressional engagement given the country’s long history of bipartisan support for its contributions to regional security and stability.
Beyond Washington, King Abdullah undertook an extensive diplomatic tour across Europe and the Middle East, engaging with key allies to solidify regional support for Jordan. He held meetings and calls with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Qatar and Iraq. Arab states have joined Jordan in its opposition to the proposal, most clearly expressed through a joint letter by five Arab states and a senior Palestinian Authority official, delivered to Rubio by the ambassadors of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan, in which they rejected the plan and stressed that Gaza’s reconstruction must be led by its own residents.
Additionally, the king coordinated efforts with U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres and also hosted pivotal diplomatic meetings in Amman, welcoming Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier at Al-Husseiniya Palace, where discussions underscored the growing strategic partnership between Jordan and the European Union. Against this backdrop, Jordan and the European Union marked a new milestone in their bilateral relations, launching a strategic partnership aimed at strengthening political, economic and security cooperation with Jordan.
For decades, Jordan and the U.S. have worked side by side as partners in regional security and stability. Today, as shifting policies and geopolitical uncertainties reshape the Middle East, this visit carries even greater weight. Jordan approaches these discussions seeking to reinforce its strategic ties with Washington while ensuring that its own security and stability remain uncompromised. At its core, for King Abdullah, the visit is an opportunity to reaffirm Jordan’s vital role in regional stability while ensuring that its partnership with the U.S. remains anchored in mutual respect and shared strategic priorities.
King Abdullah’s meeting with President Trump focused on pressing regional concerns, particularly the need to uphold the Gaza cease-fire and prevent further escalation in the West Bank. Acknowledging Trump’s role in brokering the Gaza cease-fire, the king stressed that de-escalation is not just a regional priority but a strategic necessity, as unchecked tensions could undermine broader security efforts. By emphasizing shared U.S.-Jordanian interests, the king underscored that sustained American engagement is crucial to advancing long-term peace and ensuring Jordan’s continued role as a key stabilizing force in the region.