Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
In Madagascar, a Presidential Vote Sees Old Fissures Resurface
On November 7, the Indian Ocean island nation of Madagascar, a country larger in area than California and more populous than Florida, goes to the polls to elect its next president. With a history of political crisis and fraught elections, the 2018 polls have seen renewed acrimony as no less than four former presidents of Madagascar seek the country’s highest office. USIP’s Aly Verjee and Jonas Claes discuss what’s at stake, the challenges ahead and how election disputes and violence can be mitigated.
The Risk of Election Violence in Nigeria is Not Where You Think
Nigeria’s political parties are in full campaign mode ahead of national and state-level elections early next year, and unfortunately signs are emerging that election-related violence is a real possibility. It’s not too late, however, for Nigerians and the international community to take steps to reduce the risks of coercion and possibly even bloodshed.
After Election, Cameroon’s Governance Crisis Continues
Eighty-five-year-old Paul Biya, president of Cameroon since 1982, was sworn in for his seventh term in office on November 6, after complaints arising from multiple allegations of electoral irregularities in polls held a month earlier were dismissed by Cameroon’s constitutional court. An intercommunal crisis in Cameroon has seen violence increase substantially since 2017, and the conduct of these elections—which saw a partial boycott—has added to grievances. In this analysis of the official election results, USIP’s Aly Verjee and Jude Mutah examine the data, and discuss the prospects for Cameroon after the election.
Ukraine’s Elections Could Turn Violent—This is How to Prevent It
Ukraine is facing a busy election season in 2019, with presidential elections on March 31 and parliamentary elections scheduled for October, amid a challenging security context. Many Ukrainians expect turbulent and “dirty” elections with increased tension during the campaign periods, and between Election Day and the likely presidential run-off.
What’s at Stake in Nigeria’s 2019 Elections?
On Saturday, over 84 million eligible Nigerian voters are set to go to the polls to elect their next president and members of the National Assembly, with state-level elections to be held on March 2. Among the 73 presidential candidates, incumbent Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar are the top two contenders. As Africa’s most populous country with its biggest economy and democracy, Nigeria is a bellwether for the continent and these elections will be widely watched by the region and international community. USIP’s Oge Onubogu, Chris Kwaja and Aly Verjee look at why these elections matter, security challenges surrounding the polls, and how the U.S. can support Nigeria beyond the elections.
Nigerians Head to the Polls Again for State Elections
On March 9, Nigerians return to the polls to elect governors and state legislators. The balloting follows the presidential elections held February 23, which saw the incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari, re-elected for another four-year term. USIP’s Chris Kwaja and Aly Verjee discuss how Buhari’s victory may impact the state elections, Nigerians’ seeming disenchantment with voting, and how to avert potential violence.
What’s at Stake in Ukraine’s Presidential Polls?
Over 35 million Ukrainians are eligible to choose their next president on March 31. However, several million voters in Russia-annexed Crimea and rebel-held parts of east Ukraine will not be able to vote, demonstrating how the conflict with Moscow looms large over these elections.
Burma’s Big Test: Preventing Election Violence in 2020
The people of Burma will head to the polls in late 2020 to elect more than 1,100 representatives to national, state, and regional legislative bodies. During a recent field assessment, the U.S. Institute of Peace confirmed that the risk of election-related violence is surprisingly low considering the ongoing conflicts and multitude of grievances. However, hate speech, disinformation, and intense competition between parties could create violent incidents, particularly during the campaign period. Early efforts to promote peaceful elections need to start now as the window for effective prevention will soon be closed.
Iraq’s Democratic Imperative: Getting Provincial Elections Right
Iraq’s landmark 2018 national elections—the first since the military defeat of ISIS—presented an opportunity for a much-needed course correction for the country’s sclerotic political process. Unfortunately, that opportunity was not seized properly. The vote was marred by claims of widespread fraud, low voter turnout, a delayed results announcement and a protracted government formation process.
Despite Post-Election Violence, Niger Achieves Democratic Breakthrough
Niger’s presidential election has ushered in the West African nation’s first-ever democratic transition of power. As some international observers have heralded the success of these elections, accusations of irregularities have led to massive protests and government repression, including a 10-day internet shutdown. Hundreds of people have been arrested in the capital, Niamey, while police have clashed with protesters in several other cities. USIP’s Nourdine Harouna Abdou explains what happened in the first- and second-round votes and what the elections mean for peace and security in Niger.