As the Venezuelan regime and opposition cautiously return to the negotiating table, the focus is on creating an environment for free, fair and democratic elections in 2024. Mark Wells, deputy assistant secretary for the State Department’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, discusses the on-the-ground role of Venezuelan civil society, pairing U.S. sanctions relief with progress in negotiations, and what regional allies are doing to help guide Venezuela toward a democratic solution.
En los últimos años, el sentimiento anti-oficialista se ha apoderado de la mayoría de América Latina, moviendo el péndulo electoral hacia la izquierda en México, Colombia, Honduras y Brasil, trastocando las coaliciones corruptas que durante mucho tiempo han gobernado en Guatemala y entregando la presidencia de Argentina a un autoproclamado "anarcocapitalista". Sin embargo, el 2024 podría resultar ser un buen año para los candidatos del oficialismo. En los cinco países con elecciones este año —El Salvador, Panamá, República Dominicana, Uruguay y México—, los aspirantes de los partidos gobernantes, al menos hasta ahora, encabezan las encuestas.
Anti-incumbent sentiment has gripped much of Latin America in recent years, swinging electoral results leftward in Mexico, Colombia, Honduras and Brazil, upending the corrupt coalitions that have long ruled Guatemala, and handing the presidency of Argentina to a self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist.” But 2024 may prove to be a good year for establishment politicians. In the five countries with elections on the calendar — El Salvador, Panama, Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Mexico — insider candidates are polling ahead, at least so far.
By intensifying Venezuela’s claim to resource-rich territory in neighboring Guyana, the Maduro regime is “trying to link this international dispute with his own domestic politics” in order to “whip up nationalist sentiment” ahead of 2024 Venezuelan elections, says USIP’s Mark Feierstein.
Hopes that an election in Venezuela next year might resolve the country’s political divisions and revive a moribund economy have reemerged as the Biden administration and Nicolás Maduro’s regime are reportedly near an agreement to lift some U.S. sanctions in return for steps to hold a fair contest in 2024. Still, considering recent history, skepticism abounds among the international community that the authoritarian government would allow an opposition candidate to win the election and take office.