Moldova
Moldova, wedged between Ukraine and Romania, is one of Europe’s poorest countries. Like other ex-Soviet republics, Moldova is struggling for prosperity, more responsive governing institutions freed from systemic corruption and freedom from Russian malign interference. Moldova seeks to advance these goals by joining the European Union. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government has escalated a campaign to block that move and restore Moscow’s control over a nation it sees as part of Russia’s rightful sphere of influence. Russia wields disinformation, interference through proxy politicians and its control of the breakaway region of Transnistria to deepen intra-Moldovan conflicts and, potentially, stir up violence. USIP provides analysis and support for policies to help Moldovans build a democratic, peaceful future.
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As Moldova Nears an Election, Russia Exploits an Unhealed Ethnic Rift
In 2024, Russia’s hybrid war on Europe is notably targeting tiny Moldova, which, like Ukraine, is struggling for full independence from centuries of domination by Moscow. Specifically, Vladimir Putin’s government is campaigning to scuttle Moldova’s decision to join the European Union — and one strategy is to sustain opposition by the country’s minority Gagauz community. In just 11 weeks, Moldovans will vote whether to re-elect their pro-Europe president and ratify her government’s European choice. The Kremlin is sponsoring an opposition campaign that appears certain to lose those votes; Moscow may try instead to undermine the elections’ credibility, partly through political manipulation among the Gagauz.
Russia’s Disinformation Targets Moldova’s Ties with Europe
Moldova is at war with Russia, even though not a single shot has been fired. This conflict, which Romanian-speaking Moldovans call a “razboi hibrid” (hybrid war), poses risks to Moldova and its Eastern European neighbors not unlike a traditional shooting war. As Moldova and Ukraine began separate talks last week to join the European Union, the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin has escalated its campaign of disinformation and political interference to derail Moldovans’ European and democratic aspirations. Moscow is targeting a critical decision point for Moldova: national elections and a plebiscite on EU membership over the next 13 months.
Moldova: As Russia Fuels Conflict, Could Churches Build Peace?
Russia’s escalating campaign to block Moldova from joining the European Union reflects a weakening in Eastern Europe of a longstanding Russian lever of regional influence: its Orthodox church. A number of Moldovan Orthodox priests and parishes are campaigning to withdraw their nation’s churches from two centuries of formal subordination to Russia’s church, and Moldova’s senior prelate has bluntly condemned his superior, the Russian Orthodox Church patriarch, for supporting Moscow’s war on Ukraine. As conflict escalates this year over Moldova’s future, advocates of European democracy and stability might strengthen both by supporting dialogue to reduce conflict between Moldova’s historically Russia-linked church and its smaller rival, subordinate to the Orthodox hierarchy in neighboring Romania.