Nearly nine months after Sweden and Finland applied to join the NATO alliance, Turkey continues to block their accessions. Turkey’s obstruction persists even though the applicants have now met many of its demands, and in spite of sustained high-level engagement from the United States and NATO’s secretary general. Turkish presidential elections, scheduled for May, make a breakthrough unlikely anytime soon. But Sweden’s response to the recent Turkish earthquakes could provide an unexpected opportunity for renewed progress. It is in the U.S. interest, and that of Europe’s future peace and stability, to keep up the effort. The window between now and NATO’s July summit in Vilnius will be crucial for patient diplomacy, backed by pressure, to break the deadlock.

Type: Analysis

Russia for years has warned that it would take military steps, among others, to counter any eventual decision by Finland or Sweden to join NATO. Yet since the Nordic countries declared that intention in mid-May, Russian officials’ changing rhetoric suggests that the Kremlin will seek to avoid any real confrontation over prospective NATO expansion.

Type: Analysis

Only three months into Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, the geopolitical ripple effects are being felt across the European continent. Motivated by Moscow’s aggression, Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO, ending decades of both states’ respective non-aligned status. Finnish and Swedish NATO accession would boost the capabilities and defensibility of the alliance. Their joining NATO is a rebuke of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has bristled over the alliance’s post-Cold War expansion and used it as a pretext for his Ukraine incursion.

Type: Analysis