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China’s Influence Increases amid Myanmar’s Instability

China’s Influence Increases amid Myanmar’s Instability

Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Operation 1027 in Myanmar’s northern Shan State has advanced China’s quest to eradicate forced labor scam compounds on its border. However, it has also disrupted the lucrative China-Myanmar border trade and triggered a countrywide attack by resistance forces that has dealt the junta unprecedented battlefield losses. Beijing is concerned that its southwestern provinces will experience economic hardship with the loss of border trade, and that continuing hostilities may affect these provinces’ energy security. The Myanmar army’s desperate request for Chinese help to deal with the fallout from Operation 1027 has probably generated further concern in China that the military may be on the brink of defeat.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Policy of Diversification Helps Vietnam Build Ties with the Indo-Pacific

Policy of Diversification Helps Vietnam Build Ties with the Indo-Pacific

Monday, November 20, 2023

Vietnam’s leaders have engaged with the presidents of the United States and China over the past few months. While some might see this effort as a “balancing act” in response to U.S.-China competition, it is, in fact, an indication of a long-standing but still highly relevant Vietnamese foreign policy tradition: the diversification of international relations.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

We Shouldn’t Fear a Resistance Victory in Myanmar

We Shouldn’t Fear a Resistance Victory in Myanmar

Thursday, November 16, 2023

As the national uprising against Myanmar’s coup regime has gained strength, a singular question has hovered over the widening campaign: If this patchwork of ethnic armed groups, deposed elected leaders, activists and armed defense forces manages to topple the junta, would they be able to govern, or would the country descend into greater chaos?

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionDemocracy & Governance

Myanmar’s Junta Is Losing Control of Its Border with China

Myanmar’s Junta Is Losing Control of Its Border with China

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Myanmar’s military has lost control of substantial sections of the country’s border with China in recent days, as forces fighting the coup regime coordinate their attacks in an unprecedented way. The immediate aim of the combined offensive was to shut down lucrative criminal activity in enclaves along the Chinese frontier that are run by military-sponsored border guard forces. Significantly, in doing so, the insurgents took advantage of China’s recent efforts to stifle scams run from the enclaves that target Chinese citizens. This could mark a turning point in the national struggle against military rule, one that would pose serious new challenges to the anti-coup leadership, the international community and Myanmar’s neighbors.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Amid China Tensions, the Philippines Relies on Alliances and Rule of Law

Amid China Tensions, the Philippines Relies on Alliances and Rule of Law

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

A diplomatic win, many people said about the announcement of a hotline between the Philippines and China. This was one of the highlights of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s trip to China in January 2023, where he and Chinese President Xi Jinping established a direct line of communications between their two capitals. Specifically, the line would be between departments in each country’s foreign affairs ministries that deal with maritime and border issues. The objective was to prevent the escalation of tension in the West Philippine Sea (also referred to as the South China Sea).

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

How Laos and Other ASEAN Countries Can Leverage U.S.-China Competition

How Laos and Other ASEAN Countries Can Leverage U.S.-China Competition

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Recent years have witnessed intensifying U.S.-China competition and tensions in both the political and economic spheres, particularly in areas related to technology, global supply chains, infrastructure connectivity, trade and finance. Southeast Asia has become the center of this strategic rivalry. In the region, the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) has positioned itself as the “central” actor in shaping the regional order and positively engaging with external powers. However, ASEAN’s centrality is increasingly challenged by these two major powers, who have deep and complex ties with Southeast Asia. While this competition poses challenges for ASEAN, there are also opportunities for countries like Laos and others in Southeast Asia to leverage in this tense geopolitical moment.

Type: Analysis

EconomicsGlobal Policy

For the Philippines, Maritime Security Goes Beyond U.S.-China Rivalry

For the Philippines, Maritime Security Goes Beyond U.S.-China Rivalry

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

Maritime security is a critical issue for Southeast Asia and the geopolitical underpinnings of this topic cannot be underestimated. This is especially the case for small powers as they navigate a maritime domain that is caught in the middle of — and driven by — great power politics. While maritime security in Southeast Asia is often the stage on which the U.S.-China competition plays out, this extends beyond the competing claims of regional states in the South China Sea, with important environmental and resource issues also at stake. Within this context, the Philippines is in a unique position for three reasons.

Type: Analysis

EnvironmentGlobal Policy

How Small States Navigate U.S.-China Rivalry: The Case of Cambodia

How Small States Navigate U.S.-China Rivalry: The Case of Cambodia

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Amid growing distrust and an intensifying systemic rivalry, U.S.-China relations are at the lowest point in decades. In Washington, the last three U.S. administrations have sought to balance, challenge and counter China’s rises in Asia. In Beijing, revisionist leader Xi Jinping’s regime has an ambitious plan for “national rejuvenation” and views the United States as the major strategic threat to China’s ambitions. Countries like Cambodia are caught in between.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy