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The Middle East on Fire

The Middle East on Fire

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on Israel on October 1 have raised fears of an all-out war in the Middle East. The deepening spiral of bloodshed began on September 17 and 18 with the detonation across Lebanon of thousands of pagers and two-way radios used by Hezbollah operatives — one analyst deemed the unprecedented Israeli operation “the most extensive physical supply chain attack in history.” Ongoing airstrikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon have marked the most significant Israeli barrage in 11 months of tit-for-tat escalation. On September 27, Israel dealt Hezbollah a devastating blow by killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on a Beirut suburb. Despite reeling from these latest reverses and the evisceration of its command structure, the Shiite militia continues to lob missiles at Israel. Stunned and outraged, Iran — Hezbollah’s patron — fired around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel; at least one person was killed in the West Bank. Iranians are now bracing for Israeli retaliation. The cycle of violence, it appears, is far from over.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

The Myanmar Military’s Institutional Resilience

The Myanmar Military’s Institutional Resilience

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

The Myanmar military has endured historic losses over the past three years, leaving it in the weakest state in its history. While there are few paths to recovery — and mounting challenges to its stranglehold on power — the military has managed to stay afloat so far in the face of an expanding revolution against its rule. What are the factors threatening its viability? And what is holding it together? While there is no single explanation, a critical factor is its culture of internal loyalty cultivated over decades of military rule.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Hassan Nasrallah is dead. What happens next in the Middle East?

Hassan Nasrallah is dead. What happens next in the Middle East?

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Two weeks ago, Israel announced that halting Hezbollah attacks had become an official goal of its post-October 7 war effort. Since then, Israel conducted a sophisticated clandestine attack on Hezbollah’s communications infrastructure and struck numerous Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the suburbs of Beirut, killing many of Hezbollah’s senior leaders. Then, on Friday, an Israeli airstrike assassinated Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who led the group for over 30 years.

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Sri Lanka’s New President Faces Daunting Challenges and High Hopes

Sri Lanka’s New President Faces Daunting Challenges and High Hopes

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Two years after a seismic political and economic crisis rocked Sri Lanka and brought citizens to the streets in mass protests movements that ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka’s citizens went to the polls to cast their votes for a new president. On September 21, Sri Lankans elected the left-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake over established politicians including incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa. Dissanayake’s election represents a clear break from Sri Lanka’s old guard political parties, but he will face similar challenges of navigating economic strain and a shifting geopolitical environment while working to deliver on election promises.

Type: Question and Answer

Democracy & GovernanceEconomics

Nigeria at a Crossroads: Navigating Protests Amid Elections

Nigeria at a Crossroads: Navigating Protests Amid Elections

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Nigerians marked their 64th independence day on October 1 with widespread protests fueled by growing public anger over soaring inflation, worsening insecurity, ineffective governance and rising fuel prices. This marks the second time in less than three months that citizens have taken to the streets. In August, during the “10 Days of Rage,” the appearance of Russian flags and calls for military intervention distracted from Nigeria’s entrenched governance and economic crises — issues that continue to drive insecurity and demand urgent government action. The latest protests coincide with local elections, heightening pressure on the government to demonstrate a genuine commitment to addressing citizens’ concerns in a tangible, meaningful way.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceEconomics

Myanmar Scam Hubs Revive Fast After China Eases Pressure on Junta

Myanmar Scam Hubs Revive Fast After China Eases Pressure on Junta

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Transnational crime groups in Southeast Asia, hit with intense scrutiny and law enforcement action earlier this year, are moving into new areas and adapting their operations as they revive and expand global scam operations. In Myanmar — a key center of this internet-based criminal activity — extreme political instability combined with the connivance of the country’s military and its militias continue to provide fertile ground for crime groups, albeit in new configurations. At the same time, a sudden shift in China’s posture toward Myanmar’s military regime has eased pressure on the scam industry, allowing criminal networks to further scale up their malign activities.

Type: Analysis

EconomicsGlobal PolicyHuman Rights

Will South Korea’s New ‘Unification Doctrine’ Succeed Where Past Polices Have Failed?

Will South Korea’s New ‘Unification Doctrine’ Succeed Where Past Polices Have Failed?

Thursday, September 26, 2024

South Korea’s only official policy regarding unification with North Korea is the "Three-Stage National Community Unification Formula" (hereafter “Unification Formula”), first declared by the Roh Tae-woo administration in 1989 and partially revised by the Kim Young-sam administration in 1994. However, the Korean Peninsula has changed drastically for the worse in recent years, and achieving “reconciliation and cooperation,” the first part of the three-stage formula, has become unrealistic.

Type: Analysis

Peace ProcessesReconciliation

How to Advance the Evidence-base for Strategic Religious Engagement

How to Advance the Evidence-base for Strategic Religious Engagement

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Last September, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) released its first-ever strategic religious engagement (SRE) policy. During its first year, the framework has won praise from a wide range of policymakers and diplomats. Not only does the policy affirm the critical role of religious actors as partners in advancing shared development and peacebuilding goals, but it also provides guidance for collaboration with these religious communities and faith-based organizations (FBOs).

Type: Analysis

Religion

To Address Sexual Violence in Conflict, Don’t Overlook People with Disabilities

To Address Sexual Violence in Conflict, Don’t Overlook People with Disabilities

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Sexual violence is a heinous crime that can affect anyone in conflict zones around the world. However, those with disabilities are often at greater risk of sexual violence than their counterparts without disabilities. Despite this, programs and policies for addressing conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) rarely focus on how people with disabilities are uniquely affected, yet alone the best ways to prevent such violence, support survivors and seek justice.

Type: Analysis

GenderHuman Rights