Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Iraq’s Provincial Council Elections: The Way Forward in Nineveh Province
On December 18, Iraqis will elect members of the provincial councils, the highest oversight bodies of subnational government and key providers of public services. The elections are the first at the provincial level in over a decade and come in the wake of the 2019 anti-government protests that resulted in the dissolution of the provincial councils following demands from the protesters who accused them of corruption. Recent findings from the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Conflict and Stabilization Monitoring Framework in Nineveh Province reveal that candidates are facing a distrustful electorate that is lacking confidence in state institutions.
Rising Tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea
For the past several months, China has been steadily increasing its pressure on the Philippines in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. In particular, China has actively interfered with the small Philippine garrison posted to Second Thomas Shoal. A vigorous U.S. response is required to deter further Chinese escalation.
At COP28, Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, But No Deal on a Phase Out
Few people expected much progress at the 2023 U.N. Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP28) following contentious discussions around the development of a new Loss and Damage Fund, a grim Global Stocktake report detailing exactly how far away the goals laid out in the Paris Agreement still are and questions about the intentions of the conference chair who came from the oil and gas industry. However, the agreement signed on December 13 makes surprising progress in a few key areas, while still leaving much to be desired.
Chad’s Political Transition at an Inflection Point
On December 17, Chadians will vote in a referendum to approve a new constitution for the country nearly three years into a protracted, at times turbulent political transition process. The constitutional referendum is expected to pave the way for President Mahamat Déby to run for president in the 2024 national elections after leading the country since 2021, and adjust Chad’s system of governance to be a unitary, non-federal state with increased decentralization and territorial autonomy.
Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously
The historically fraught relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is deteriorating once again. A seemingly momentous peace deal that brought the two sides together in 2018 now appears to have been a brief interlude in a longer arc of enduring rivalry. The sources of recent tension include Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s public posturing around sea access and dynamics seeded by the 2018 peace deal itself. Neither side can afford escalation, but open conflict remains a possibility and even outcomes well short of direct hostilities — perhaps a return to the “no war, no peace” situation of preceding decades — would be disastrous for the two nations and the broader region.
A ‘Monumental Step’ on Ukraine’s Path to Europe
In a surprise move, the European Union on December 14 agreed to start accession talks with Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the news as “a victory of Ukraine … a victory that motivates, inspires and strengthens.”
Implications of Xi’s Power Concentration for Chinese Foreign Policy
Chinese foreign policy is clearly in Xi Jinping’s grip. Xi’s power concentration has given him a strong personal and institutional capacity to chart a new course for China’s approach to its international relations. But he is also prone to make mistakes, increasing Beijing’s foreign policy incoherency.
A More Resilient North Korea in the Post-Pandemic Era
North Korea in the post-pandemic era is becoming increasingly resilient and authoritarian, and less reliant on conventional interactions with the international community. As a result, the U.S. government may need to reconsider its reliance on sanctions as a means to influence the regime in Pyongyang.
Can the DRC Hold Free and Fair Elections Amid Mass Displacement?
On December 20, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is holding its first elections since the peaceful — but contested — transfer of power in 2019 from former President Joseph Kabila to current President Felix Tshisekedi. The elections come amid a climate of instability throughout the country, underpinned by conflict in the eastern regions, economic and social crises, and mistrust between the government and opposition. USIP’s Wapoenje Dacruz Evora and Elizabeth Murray examine the major candidates and the issues most important to voters, the risk for violence during the electoral process, and whether free and fair elections are possible given the mass displacement of civilians in the eastern DRC.
China’s Influence Increases amid Myanmar’s Instability
Operation 1027 in Myanmar’s northern Shan State has advanced China’s quest to eradicate forced labor scam compounds on its border. However, it has also disrupted the lucrative China-Myanmar border trade and triggered a countrywide attack by resistance forces that has dealt the junta unprecedented battlefield losses. Beijing is concerned that its southwestern provinces will experience economic hardship with the loss of border trade, and that continuing hostilities may affect these provinces’ energy security. The Myanmar army’s desperate request for Chinese help to deal with the fallout from Operation 1027 has probably generated further concern in China that the military may be on the brink of defeat.