Three Takeaways on U.S.-China Relations After the Shangri-La Summit

Three Takeaways on U.S.-China Relations After the Shangri-La Summit

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

By: Rosie Levine;  Alex Stephenson

Defense ministers from around the world gathered in Singapore last weekend for the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, a forum for discussing security challenges in Asia and an opportunity for high-ranking security officials to engage in bilateral talks. However, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin did not meet with his Chinese counterpart, Li Shangfu. Beijing suspended formal military-to-military meetings last August following then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Since then, U.S.-China tensions have only ratcheted up, particularly following revelations this February that a Chinese surveillance balloon was hovering over U.S. territory.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global PolicyMediation, Negotiation & Dialogue

Challenging China’s Grip on Critical Minerals Can Be a Boon for Africa’s Future

Challenging China’s Grip on Critical Minerals Can Be a Boon for Africa’s Future

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

By: Edward A. Burrier;  Thomas P. Sheehy

Demand for the critical minerals powering the world’s clean-energy technologies, consumer goods and defense applications is skyrocketing. These metals are what the modern economy runs on: we need them for our phones, electric vehicles and satellites, and so much more. Forecasts estimate that in the coming decades, the world will need many times more cobalt, copper, lithium and manganese, among other minerals, than what is currently being produced. This poses a strategic challenge for the United States, as China dominates global critical mineral supply chains, accounting for 60% of world-wide production and 85% of processing capacity. To help meet demand and diversify supply, Western policymakers are increasingly looking to Africa, home to about one-third of the world’s mineral resources.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

EconomicsEnvironment

The Growing Threat of the Islamic State in Afghanistan and South Asia

The Growing Threat of the Islamic State in Afghanistan and South Asia

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

By: Abdul Sayed;  Tore Refslund Hamming

When the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021, counterterrorism experts were alarmed at the possible resurgence of Islamist terrorist groups within the country. This Special Report lays out why those concerns, particularly about the regional Islamic State affiliate known as Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), were well-founded. The report discusses the likely trajectory of ISKP’s activities in South Asia and recommends measures to minimize potential threats to the West and build regional resilience to extremism.

Type: Special Report

Violent Extremism

Mona Yacoubian on Arab Normalization with Syria’s Assad

Mona Yacoubian on Arab Normalization with Syria’s Assad

Tuesday, June 6, 2023

By: Mona Yacoubian

Many Arab countries have concluded that President Bashar al-Assad is entrenched power and that they’ll need his cooperation to address challenges like refugees and the illicit drug trade. In Washington, there is no appetite to normalize with Assad. “I think ultimately what we see is just a fundamental tension between the need for accountability and fatigue in the region,” USIP’s Mona Yacoubian says.

Type: Podcast

A Big Step Forward in U.S.-India Defense Ties

A Big Step Forward in U.S.-India Defense Ties

Tuesday, June 6, 2023

By: Sameer P. Lalwani, Ph.D.;  Vikram J. Singh

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s arrival in New Delhi on Sunday comes at a critical moment, just two weeks before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s State visit to Washington, DC. As with any ministerial visit, the secretary and his counterpart, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, will take stock of recent successes and coming opportunities. They will discuss possible deliverables for the upcoming Biden-Modi summit. But the visit will be a true success if they dig into discussions of the kind of reciprocal expectations that can take the U.S.-India defense partnership to new heights.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global Policy

Understanding India’s Manipur Conflict and Its Geopolitical Implications

Understanding India’s Manipur Conflict and Its Geopolitical Implications

Friday, June 2, 2023

By: Binalakshmi Nepram;  Brigitta W. Schuchert

Since May 3, the northeastern Indian state of Manipur has witnessed repeated inter-ethnic clashes primarily between two local ethnic communities, the Meitei and Kuki. The violence has resulted in over 75 deaths and the burning of at least 1,700 buildings (including homes and religious sites). More than 35,000 people are currently displaced as well, with many now living in one of the 315 relief camps in the state. As the fighting continues, these numbers may also be rising.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

U.S. Strengthens Ties with Key Pacific Island Partners

U.S. Strengthens Ties with Key Pacific Island Partners

Thursday, June 1, 2023

By: Gordon Peake, Ph.D.;  Camilla Pohle-Anderson

The United States notched multiple diplomatic wins in the Pacific Islands region last week, making further progress in Washington’s efforts to step up engagement in this oft-neglected part of the world. In a move closely watched by Pacific nations, the United States signed deals to renew its economic assistance to Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia for the next 20 years. Meanwhile, although President Biden had to cancel his planned visit to Papua New Guinea, Secretary of State Antony Blinken inked a defense cooperation deal with the island nation in the president’s stead. While the region has become another arena for U.S.-China competition, Washington has long-standing relationships and interests there that go well beyond its rivalry with Beijing.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global Policy

What’s Next for the Blue Helmet 75 Years Later?

What’s Next for the Blue Helmet 75 Years Later?

Thursday, June 1, 2023

By: Ouiem Chettaoui;  Gbenga Oni

When the 1948 Arab-Israeli War ended in a cease-fire agreement, the international community recognized that an independent monitoring mechanism offered the best chance of maintaining the fragile peace process. And so, 75 years ago this week, the U.N. peacekeepers were deployed for the first time. Their mission in that conflict would become the template for U.N. peacekeeping operations for decades to come: Bringing stability to tenuous and uncertain post-conflict environments.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Civilian-Military Relations

Dislodging Putin’s Foothold in the Balkans

Dislodging Putin’s Foothold in the Balkans

Thursday, June 1, 2023

By: Harun Karčić;  Peter Mandaville, Ph.D.

The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the Balkans can only be understood by considering Moscow’s malign influence in the region from a broader perspective. While Russia has specific objectives related to each individual country in the region, its overall objective is clearly to target the Western Balkans through a divide and rule approach, using multiple tools of influence. While the United States and its European partners focus on the war in Ukraine, Russia is taking the opportunity to nibble away at NATO’s borders and to sow discord in countries hoping to some day present a strong case for joining the European Union.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global Policy