Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Five Factors Shaping the Future of Egypt-Israel Relations
The Gaza war has strained Egyptian-Israeli relations to an unprecedented level and raised questions about the future of their 1979 peace treaty that has been a cornerstone of Arab-Israeli peace. U.S. officials met recently in Cairo with their Israeli and Egyptian counterparts against a backdrop of mutually diminishing confidence between the two parties, particularly following Israel’s ground offensive in Rafah. This comes on the heels of a shooting incident between Israeli and Egyptian forces that left at least one Egyptian soldier dead, and Egypt joining South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Along with Qatar, Egypt is a key broker in the current Israel-Hamas cease-fire efforts and engages in extensive security cooperation with the U.S. and Israel.
Is Mexico’s Historic Election an Opportunity to Reset Cooperation with the U.S.?
On June 2, Mexicans elected former Mexico City mayor and governing party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum as their next president. With a compelling electoral mandate, as well as a qualified majority in Congress, Sheinbaum has vowed to continue her predecessor’s “Fourth Transformation” project, focused on reducing poverty, combatting corruption and promoting social justice and equal income distribution under a strengthened state. Amid this mix of continuity and change, the United States may have an opportunity to rebuild the two countries’ frayed cooperation on security and violence reduction, one of Sheinbaum’s priorities and something that will be impossible for her to achieve without close cooperation with the United States.
Boiling the Frog: China’s Incrementalist Maritime Expansion
For over three decades, Beijing has deployed an initially slow but now accelerating campaign to degrade Philippine maritime rights and access in the West Philippine Sea. This long-term effort has been characterized by often seemingly benign actions and even conciliatory rhetoric interspersed with escalatory words and deeds designed to test the thresholds of neighbors and allies. Today, China’s rising aggression in the West Philippine Sea and broader South China Sea has pushed the region to the precipice of conflict.
Vietnam’s Paradox: Domestic Tumult, Diplomatic Consistency
Last September, President Biden and Vietnamese General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng announced a new Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, raising U.S.-Vietnam relations to their highest level ever. Yet domestic politics in Vietnam have been rocky, with numerous leadership changes and increasing restrictions on civil society — raising uncertainty within Vietnam’s usually stable political system.
El Resultado de las Elecciones en Venezuela Aún No Está Decidido
Con menos de dos meses para las elecciones presidenciales en Venezuela, el presidente Nicolás Maduro enfrenta una decisión crucial. Si es derrotado en las urnas, como sugieren las encuestas, Maduro podría aceptar la derrota y negociar un traspaso de poder con protecciones contra persecución legal. O podría intentar robarse o invalidar la elección. La mayoría de los observadores asumen que Maduro optará por lo último, pero hacerlo podría ponerlo en un riesgo personal aún mayor.
Venezuela’s Election Outcome Isn’t a Done Deal Just Yet
With less than two months before Venezuela’s presidential election, President Nicolas Maduro faces a stark choice. Should he be beaten at the polls, as opinion surveys suggest he will be, Maduro could concede defeat and negotiate a transfer of power with safeguards against legal persecution. Or he could try to steal or invalidate the election. Most observers assume Maduro will opt for the latter, but doing so could put him at even greater personal risk.
Three Troubling Takeaways on U.S.-China Relations from the Shangri La Dialogue
The recently concluded 2024 Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore provided another useful opportunity for senior U.S. and Chinese national security officials to engage in face-to-face bilateral discussions and interact with officials and experts from other states. While these engagements have value in theory, they highlight three persistent problems in the practice of U.S.-China relations. First, the United States and China tend to talk past each other. Second, the United States and China have dissimilar systems, which makes identifying and engaging with appropriate counterpart officials very difficult. Third, the United States and China possess fundamentally different understandings about the role of third countries in managing confrontation and mitigating conflict.
Keith Mines on the Latest from Haiti
While Haiti’s Transitional Council has appointed a prime minister to lead a temporary government and the Kenyan-led international security mission is expected to deploy soon, “[Haiti’s] gangs are still pretty strong,” says USIP’s Keith Mines. “There’s really going to be a fight for power … over the coming months.”
After India’s Surprising Elections, What’s Next for Modi’s Foreign Policy?
Widely expected to cruise to a third-straight majority in India’s parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) instead lost ground and must now rely on its National Democratic Alliance partners, especially the Janata Dal (United) party and the Telugu Desam Party, to form a coalition government. While the stunning results will have immediate consequences for Modi’s domestic agenda, foreign and national security policies are not top priorities for India’s new parliament. Still, the political changes associated with coalition rule and the BJP’s unanticipated electoral setback could affect India’s international relationships in important ways.
Taiwan’s New President Faces Tensions with China and Domestic Division
Over four months after winning Taiwan’s presidential election, William Lai Ching-te from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officially took office on May 20. Beijing fiercely criticized Lai’s inaugural address and conducted military drills and patrols around Taiwan in a bid to “punish” Lai for failing to heed China’s preferred positions. In the days following the speech, Lai also faced challenges at home, as opposition parties in Taiwan’s legislature passed a set of reform bills that critics warn could increase China’s ability to interfere in Taiwan’s domestic affairs.