Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
After Taiwan’s Election, China Is Now Ratcheting Up the Pressure
Beijing is intensifying its pressure on Taiwan’s freshly elected president, William Lai Ching-te. Instead of relying on conventional military or economic pressures, however, Beijing has employed multifaceted tools of coercion to demonstrate disapproval of the January election results. Although China is carefully calibrating its behavior to avoid provoking Taipei or the United States, Beijing’s efforts to gradually change the status quo and erase the traditional boundaries between Taiwan and China could lead to escalated tensions and unintentional conflict.
Taiwan’s Democracy Prevailed Despite China’s Election Interference
The election of Lai Ching-te, or William Lai, as Taiwan’s next president despite firm opposition from China is a positive sign that democracy is alive and well on the island nation. Nevertheless, the fact that Lai, whom China has deemed a “troublemaker” and “separatist,” won by a narrow margin, and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its majority in the Legislative Yuan, will be seen in Beijing as an acceptable outcome, as it restricts Lai’s ability to advance his agenda and reveals the limits of the DPP’s appeal.
What You Need to Know About Taiwan’s Pivotal Presidential Elections
Ahead of the November 20 deadline to register candidates, Taiwan’s campaign season for the January 2024 presidential elections is in full swing and voters are presented with four candidates. While economic and energy policies will be key for voters, the chief foreign policy issue is how to manage relations with China. Both Beijing and Washington will be watching closely for what the election augurs for cross-Strait tension and Taiwan’s relationships with the world’s two major powers.
Pro-Taiwan Pacific Island Leaders Show Cracks in China’s Appeal
Most Pacific Island countries have formal diplomatic relations with Beijing. But at both the local and national level, some leaders are raising concerns about Chinese bribery, violations of sovereignty, clandestine intelligence operations and political interference in their countries, as well as the possibility that China may invade Taiwan. As Beijing forces its agenda on Pacific Island countries and competes with the United States for influence in the region, Washington should lead by example and build partnerships with the Pacific Islands that emphasize consulting with them as equals and focusing on areas of common interest, like climate change.
Tensions over Taiwan Rise with Tsai’s U.S. Stopover
President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan transits this week through the United States, stopping in New York on her way to Guatemala and Belize, and in California on her way home. Tsai has made six stopovers since she took office in 2016, but this is the first since July 2019. The stopovers are not official visits, but Tsai is expected to meet Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy in California. Beijing has made it known it fiercely opposes the stopover and threatened to retaliate if McCarthy and Tsai meet.
Xi and Putin Flaunt Deepening Ties, Flout the U.S.-led Order
Thirteen months after Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, Moscow and Beijing are continuing to deepen their ties even as China has sought to portray itself as a neutral player in the war. This week’s summit between Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin comes on the heels of the International Criminal Court’s warrant for Putin for war crimes. For Putin, the summit demonstrated that despite Western sanction and opprobrium, Russia is not an isolated pariah state. Meanwhile, Xi used the summit to further the image he has tried to burnish of Beijing as a peacemaker and advance his vision of an alternative multilateral order, breaking away from the U.S.-led system.
Three Key Takeaways from the Biden-Xi Summit
With the U.S.-China relationship at its lowest point in decades, the American and Chinese leaders met this week on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Indonesia for their first face-to-face summit since Joe Biden was elected. The deteriorating bilateral relationship became particularly concerning in August when China cut key lines of communication between Washington and Beijing, including on critical military and climate issues, following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
China’s Influence on the Freely Associated States of the Northern Pacific
Around the world, Beijing is investing heavily in diplomatic, security, cultural, and economic ties in a bid to increase its global influence, strengthen its ability to protect and advance its national interests, attract support in multilateral fora and international institutions, and fracture the global consensus on key issues it views as unfavorable to its geopolitical ambitions. The Pacific Islands region—defined as the vast stretch of Pacific Ocean between Asian littoral waters in the west, Guam in the north and Hawaii in the northeast, and Australia and New Zealand in the south and southwest—has been no exception.
Four Takeaways from China’s Tour of the Pacific Islands
In late May, as President Biden was wrapping up his visit to Asia, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, launched a 10-day tour of the Pacific Islands. Almost immediately, news broke that Wang had unexpectedly proposed a sweeping multilateral agreement to deepen Beijing’s security and economic ties with the region, then quickly withdrew it due to lack of support from the Pacific Island countries. This followed a controversial Solomon Islands-China security pact signed in April that set off alarm bells in the United States and Australia over China’s efforts to establish a security presence in the Pacific Islands region.
Enhancing Strategic Stability in Southern Asia: USIP Senior Study Group Final Report
This report reviews the challenges posed by changing strategic circumstances in Southern Asia, assesses a range of US policy options, and presents a set of priority recommendations for US policymakers.