Research & Analysis
U.S. Institute of Peace’s articles, reports, tools and other features provide policy analysis, research findings, and practitioner guides. These publications examine critical conflict issues at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and resolve violent conflict.
The views expressed in these publications are those of the author(s).
Southeast Asian Nations Convene amid Myanmar Crisis, South China Sea Tensions
Leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are in Vientiane, Laos this week for the bloc’s annual summit and the concurrent East Asia Summit, which brings ASEAN together with other important regional players like the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Russia and China. Typically, the East Asia Summit is not a venue for major policy discussions, but the gathering offers opportunities for a bevy of side meetings between various countries. At both summits, Southeast Asian leaders will lament progress on Myanmar and the South China Sea — where China’s maritime claims and aggressive actions lead to tensions with regional countries — and the state of the world in general.
China, Philippines Have Big Disagreements Over Their Recent Deal
China and the Philippines this weekend reached a deal aimed at reducing their growing tensions over Second Thomas Shoal. The agreement comes as maritime confrontations have been increasing in frequency and intensity, raising fears of a broader conflict that could lead to the Philippines invoking its mutual defense treaty with the United States. While the deal could be a key step to reducing tensions, messaging from both Beijing and Manila suggests that both sides still firmly maintain their positions on the disputed waters, and that they see the agreement’s provisions in fundamentally different ways.
The Indo-Pacific’s Newest Minilateral Emerges
Last week, Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. stepped foot in the Oval Office for the second time in a year. Joining Marcos this time was Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the leader of the United States’ most important ally in Asia and, arguably, the world. The Philippines has long been among a second rung of regional allies, so this first-ever trilateral summit marks Manila’s entrance as a leading U.S. ally working to maintain order and prevent Chinese revisionism in East Asia.
U.S., Japan, Philippines Strengthen Strategic Bonds to Counter China
Next week’s U.S.-Philippines-Japan summit comes against the backdrop of heightened tensions between Manilla and Beijing in the South China Sea, known as the West Philippines Sea in the Philippines. Last month alone saw two incidents of China’s so- called “gray zone” activities, with Chinese ships colliding with Philippines Coast Guard vessels on March 5 and blasting a Philippines supply boat with a water cannon on March 23. These disputes in the West Philippines Sea — an issue on which U.S., Japanese and Philippine interests closely align — will feature prominently when President Joe Biden, Philippine President Ferdinando Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minster Fumio Kishida meet in Washington on April 11.
Indonesia’s Nickel Bounty Sows Discord, Enables Chinese Control
As the world moves toward cleaner forms of energy, specific minerals and metals that support this transition have become “critical.” Nickel — a major component used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries — is one such critical mineral. Demand for battery metals is forecast to increase 60-70 percent in the next two decades. This may be a boon for some. But in Indonesia, which produces more than half of the world’s nickel supply, it has led to political, environmental and ethical complications.
Are China and the Philippines on a Collision Course?
Tensions between China and the Philippines have sharply escalated in recent months over territorial disputes in the South China Sea that could draw in the United States.
How Might Prabowo Navigate Conflict, Competition as Indonesia’s President?
Indonesia’s defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, is set to become the next president of the world’s fourth-largest country and third-largest democracy. Prabowo will take the reins of power at a tense moment for regional and global security and as president will have to contend with a persistent, low-grade conflict in West Papua. Continuity will likely hold sway as prevailing winds in Indonesia’s foreign policy chart a well-worn course for navigating geopolitical competition and global conflicts, this time with what appears to be a willing captain at the helm.
The Pivotal Elections of 2024: Key Races That Will Shape the Global Landscape
Around 2 billion people in more than 50 countries, including India, Chad, Mexico and South Africa, will go to the polls this year in what has been described as the Super Bowl of elections. From major democracies to emerging nations, the outcomes of these votes will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the future trajectory of countries around the world. While some elections could produce conflict, most will take place under the threat of disruption — all of this will have serious implications for U.S. foreign policy and security.
Indonesia and the U.S. Strengthen Ties under Cloud of Gaza War
U.S. President Joe Biden and Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced a new comprehensive strategic partnership when the two leaders met at the White House on November 13. The Indonesian leader, popularly known as Jokowi, said he hoped the partnership will “contribute to regional and global peace and prosperity.” The White House meeting took place ahead of Biden’s highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco on November 15. However, Jokowi’s call for the United States to do more to end the war in the Gaza Strip dominated the headlines coming out of the meeting.
South China Sea: Crisis Communication Is Crucial to De-escalate Geopolitical Tensions
During the August 5 crisis at Second Thomas Shoal, the Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs tried to contact its Chinese counterparts through a bilateral hotline. Manila’s effort to de-escalate the standoff despite being the victim of Chinese aggression was laudable. Unfortunately, the calls went unanswered. Officials in Washington have shared the same experience on many occasions — when communication is needed most, Beijing can’t be reached.