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How the U.S. Can Contribute to Resolving the Venezuelan Conflict

How the U.S. Can Contribute to Resolving the Venezuelan Conflict

Tuesday, July 23, 2024

The recent announcement of direct negotiations between Venezuela and the United States was welcomed by many Venezuelans as an opportunity to bolster the chances of the July 28 election playing out peacefully and leading to a future of democratic co-existence. The key to this outcome, however, will hinge less on the tactical electoral questions — such as incentives for not annulling the opposition’s electoral ticket — and more on the larger question of ensuring there will be no persecution of the loser and that the two sides can return to the alternation of power rather than single party rule. The U.S. is in key a position to both influence the general ambiance of the election and to take specific actions that will facilitate a democratic outcome, which will play out over an extended post-electoral period.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

Cómo Puede Contribuir EE.UU. a la Resolución del Conflicto en Venezuela

Cómo Puede Contribuir EE.UU. a la Resolución del Conflicto en Venezuela

Tuesday, July 23, 2024

El reciente anuncio de negociaciones directas entre Venezuela y Estados Unidos fue recibido con agrado por muchos venezolanos como una oportunidad para aumentar las posibilidades de que las elecciones del 28 de julio se desarrollen pacíficamente y conduzcan a un futuro de coexistencia democrática. Sin embargo, la clave de este resultado dependerá menos de las cuestiones tácticas electorales —como los incentivos para no anular la candidatura de la oposición— y más de la cuestión más amplia de asegurar que no habrá persecución del perdedor y que ambas partes puedan volver a la alternancia del poder en lugar de un régimen de partido único. EE.UU. está en una posición clave tanto para influir en el ambiente general de las elecciones como para tomar acciones específicas que faciliten un resultado democrático, que se desarrollará a lo largo de un período post-electoral extendido.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

What You Need to Know About Iran’s Election and New President

What You Need to Know About Iran’s Election and New President

Tuesday, July 9, 2024

In a clear challenge to regime hardliners, Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist and cardiac surgeon, won Iran’s snap presidential election on July 5. The elections were called after President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19. The runoff had been considered a tight race, but Pezeshkian won decisively with almost three million more votes than Saeed Jalili, a hardliner and former nuclear negotiator. Due to take office in August, Pezeshkian, a former deputy speaker of parliament and health minister, will take power as Iran’s government faces legitimacy challenges amid an economic crisis.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

How Have India’s Neighbors Reacted to Its Election?

How Have India’s Neighbors Reacted to Its Election?

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Narendra Modi was sworn in on June 9 for his third consecutive term as India’s prime minister. Public polls had predicted a sweeping majority for Modi, so it came as some surprise that his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost ground with voters and had to rely on coalition partners to form a ruling government. Although India’s elections were fought mainly on domestic policy issues, there were important exceptions and Modi’s electoral setback could have implications for India’s regional and global policies.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

Comment Rompre le Cycle des Élections Faibles en Haïti

Comment Rompre le Cycle des Élections Faibles en Haïti

Thursday, June 20, 2024

Le nouveau Conseil de Transition Présidentielle d’Haïti et le Premier ministre ont beaucoup à faire alors qu’ils tentent de reprendre la sécurité du pays des gangs armés tout en répondant à la crise humanitaire en cours. Ils doivent également se concentrer sur la conduite du pays vers des élections devant avoir lieu d'ici février 2026. Étant donné les élections faibles et controversées que Haïti a endurées lors des cycles récents, le nouveau gouvernement et ses soutiens internationaux devront se concentrer sur la création de conditions pour une élection viable qui marquera la période à venir de restauration sociale et politique.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & Conflict

How to Break the Cycle of Weak Elections in Haiti

How to Break the Cycle of Weak Elections in Haiti

Thursday, June 20, 2024

Haiti’s new Presidential Transition Council and the prime minister have a lot to do as they try to take back the country’s security from armed gangs while addressing the ongoing humanitarian crisis. They must also focus on leading the country to elections mandated to take place by February 2026. Given the weak and controversial elections Haiti has endured in recent cycles, the new government and its international supporters will need to focus on creating conditions for a viable election that will crown the upcoming period of social and political restoration.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & Conflict

Venezuela’s Election Outcome Isn’t a Done Deal Just Yet

Venezuela’s Election Outcome Isn’t a Done Deal Just Yet

Thursday, June 13, 2024

With less than two months before Venezuela’s presidential election, President Nicolas Maduro faces a stark choice. Should he be beaten at the polls, as opinion surveys suggest he will be, Maduro could concede defeat and negotiate a transfer of power with safeguards against legal persecution. Or he could try to steal or invalidate the election. Most observers assume Maduro will opt for the latter, but doing so could put him at even greater personal risk.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & Conflict

El Resultado de las Elecciones en Venezuela Aún No Está Decidido

El Resultado de las Elecciones en Venezuela Aún No Está Decidido

Thursday, June 13, 2024

Con menos de dos meses para las elecciones presidenciales en Venezuela, el presidente Nicolás Maduro enfrenta una decisión crucial. Si es derrotado en las urnas, como sugieren las encuestas, Maduro podría aceptar la derrota y negociar un traspaso de poder con protecciones contra persecución legal. O podría intentar robarse o invalidar la elección. La mayoría de los observadores asumen que Maduro optará por lo último, pero hacerlo podría ponerlo en un riesgo personal aún mayor.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & Conflict

Is Mexico’s Historic Election an Opportunity to Reset Cooperation with the U.S.?

Is Mexico’s Historic Election an Opportunity to Reset Cooperation with the U.S.?

Thursday, June 13, 2024

On June 2, Mexicans elected former Mexico City mayor and governing party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum as their next president. With a compelling electoral mandate, as well as a qualified majority in Congress, Sheinbaum has vowed to continue her predecessor’s “Fourth Transformation” project, focused on reducing poverty, combatting corruption and promoting social justice and equal income distribution under a strengthened state. Amid this mix of continuity and change, the United States may have an opportunity to rebuild the two countries’ frayed cooperation on security and violence reduction, one of Sheinbaum’s priorities and something that will be impossible for her to achieve without close cooperation with the United States.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

¿Es la histórica elección de México una oportunidad para reiniciar la cooperación con los Estados Unidos?

¿Es la histórica elección de México una oportunidad para reiniciar la cooperación con los Estados Unidos?

Thursday, June 13, 2024

El 2 de junio, los mexicanos eligieron a la ex alcaldesa de la Ciudad de México y candidata del partido gobernante, Claudia Sheinbaum, como su próxima presidenta. Con un mandato electoral contundente, así como con una mayoría calificada en el Congreso, Sheinbaum ha prometido continuar el proyecto de la “Cuarta Transformación” de su predecesor, enfocado en reducir la pobreza, combatir la corrupción, promover la justicia social y lograr una distribución equitativa del ingreso bajo un estado fortalecido. En medio de esta mezcla de continuidad y cambio, Estados Unidos podría tener una oportunidad para reconstruir la deteriorada cooperación entre ambos países en materia de seguridad y reducción de la violencia, una de las prioridades de Sheinbaum y algo que será imposible de lograr sin una estrecha cooperación con Estados Unidos.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict