Why the UN’s Future Summit Matters Amid Today’s Global Crises

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Amid rising conflict and climate and geopolitical crises, the 80-year-old U.N. system is faltering.
  • Emerging challenges posed by disruptive technologies will further strain the multilateral system.
  • The Future Summit could be a vital first step in updating the U.N. — the U.S. should support it.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Amid rising conflict and climate and geopolitical crises, the 80-year-old U.N. system is faltering.
  • Emerging challenges posed by disruptive technologies will further strain the multilateral system.
  • The Future Summit could be a vital first step in updating the U.N. — the U.S. should support it.

It is that time of the year again. World leaders are converging in New York for the launch of the 79th U.N. General Assembly. With every passing year, the global trends away from multilateral approaches and structures that ensure peace, security and global stability leave humanity in a growing state of precarity. That, however, should demand a penetrating call for less cynicism, not more.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu, president of Nigeria, addresses the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly, at the U.N. headquarters in Manhattan on Tuesday, Sept. 19, 2023. (Dave Sanders/The New York Times)
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, president of Nigeria, addresses the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly, at the U.N. headquarters in Manhattan on Tuesday, Sept. 19, 2023. (Dave Sanders/The New York Times)

Over the past decade or so, the U.N. General Assembly's high-level debates have emphasized multilateral action toward ambitious, often abstract, targets like the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The themes of the last two UNGAs highlight ongoing efforts to unite nations in addressing intertwined global issues — like climate change, poverty and inequality — through multilateral frameworks like the SDGs. A consistent thread throughout these themes emphasizes progress at the global level realized through effective collective state action via multilateral institutions, with a focus on creating fair, sustainable societies where the rights and needs of each person are upheld.

Success at these two levels — consensus on global policy and protecting individual rights — seems to be far out of reach. The rise of isolationism, regionalism and "minilateralism" threaten to erode the multilateral cooperation the U.N. relies on. Meanwhile, individual rights are increasingly compromised by the resurgence of authoritarian regimes and great power competition, which can lead to prioritizing alliances with governments with poor human rights records. This has left the vision of a stronger, more peaceful world — once promoted by a system shaped and led by democracies with the economic and military power — on perilous ground. As these democratic ideals recede, so too does the ability of global institutions to address the complex, interconnected problems they were designed to solve. Without reinvigorated leadership and a renewed commitment to cooperation, the multilateral vision of peace and security could be left on the sidelines.

While this year’s UNGA theme focuses on “leaving no one behind,” an alternative theme that might resonate just as deeply with the atmosphere of our time could be drawn from art historian Linda Nochlin's seminal work, “The Body in Pieces: The Fragment as a Metaphor for Modernity.” In many ways, the global landscape today mirrors Nochlin’s metaphor of fragmentation: trust between nations, institutions and people is fractured, while global systems, much like the body in 19th-century art, appear to break apart under the weight of geopolitical, environmental and societal crises. As the debates unfold this year, the challenge lies not only in restitching these fragments but in envisioning how to reassemble a world that often seems irreparably divided.

Much will be needed to bring it back. It can’t be done alone, and it requires strong American leadership. There is no better time than now, and a good faith effort at this year’s Summit of the Future is a great place to start.

An Urgent Call to Address Tomorrow’s Challenges

The “Summit for the Future,” which will be held concurrently with this year’s UNGA, is a cornerstone of Secretary-General António Guterres' vision for "Our Common Agenda," which was first unveiled in September 2021. The agenda calls for broad commitments to reform and strengthen the international system, aiming to address emerging challenges like climate change, technological inequality and the erosion of multilateralism.

The summit aims to address rapid advances in technology and science, which offer great potential for a more peaceful and prosperous future, but also pose threats and opportunities that must be carefully managed through multilateral approaches. The secretary-general is offering the Summit of the Future as an opportunity to spur international action by first accelerating the implementation of existing commitments, like the SDGs, the Paris Agreement and the Addis Ababa Action Agenda for international development financing. However, the core motivation of the gathering is to “set a new course” to catalyze the cooperation — through three new agreements including the Pact for Future — needed to confront the immense challenges that define our time.

It is easy to treat the Summit for the Future cynically, especially given competing foreign policy priorities like the wars in Sudan, Gaza and Ukraine that tend to eclipse long-term initiatives like youth development, fragile state stability and equitable technology use. These issues, crucial as they are, often receive only modest funding and attention in Western capitals, where defense and hard power considerations dominate budgets. As a result, there is a real risk that this summit will be another well-meaning but underfunded initiative, relegated to smaller venues and given little weight in the broader global agenda. It is not a good sign that no leaders of the permanent five members of the U.N. Security Council are yet scheduled to attend.

Taking the future seriously means recognizing shifting power dynamics — both generationally and geopolitically.

Dismissing the Summit for the Future would be a mistake. The future is not an abstract or distant concept; it is directly connected to today’s pressing concerns. A successful summit could help forge a path toward addressing challenges like the ethical governance of emerging technologies. Moreover, it offers a unique opportunity to rethink development and peacebuilding strategies at a time when traditional approaches are faltering. No one should expect this year’s summit to result in immediately tangible changes — it as an invitation for global stakeholders to step forward and define the future together.

Generations and Geopolitics

Taking the future seriously means recognizing shifting power dynamics — both generationally and geopolitically.

These shifts are particularly evident in calls for things like Security Council reform, which the Pact for the Future aims to garner commitment on. The current configuration of the Security Council, which has remained largely unchanged since its post-World War II inception, no longer reflects the realities of the 21st century world, where emerging powers, specifically in regions like Africa, play a critical role in geopolitics.

As her term winds down, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield has presented a bold reform agenda that recognizes these shifting tides. Her plan calls for two new permanent seats for African nations and a rotating seat for small island developing states. Additionally, the U.S. supports the inclusion of Germany, India, Japan and a Latin American/Caribbean nation as permanent members. This would realign the council to appropriately reflect geopolitical realities.

In the long run, young people will bear the brunt of many of today's challenges; they also frequently have the most innovative ideas for addressing these challenges. The Summit for the Future will incorporate youth leadership like never before through “The Summit of the Future Action Days.” Youth-led events will focus on technology, peace and security, and sustainable development and financing.

The U.N.’s 2023 Youth2030 Progress Report highlights several key achievements that showcase the tangible impact of youth engagement on pressing global issues. It shows how young people have helped address public health crises, promote green jobs and sustainable development, and improve national governance.

The inclusion of youth leaders in multilateral dialogues during the summit marks the beginning of a broader movement toward future-oriented governance, where generational change alongside geopolitical rebalancing can together help forge a more effective and responsive global order that is fit to the realities of the 21st century.

Updating the U.N. for a New World Order

The post-World War II system was built on principles that were revolutionary at the time — promoting peace, stability and the safeguarding of individual rights through an international system. The inclusion of hard-power mechanisms like the Security Council, designed to act decisively when threats to peace arise, was a recognition that dialogue and diplomacy sometimes need enforcement.

Yet, this framework was designed for a world that is fundamentally different than it was in at the time of the U.N.’s founding in 1945. In the late 1940s, international influence and global communications were centralized among a few dominant players who constructed the U.N. system. Today, the global economy is more interdependent than ever, with the World Trade Organization estimating that the value of global merchandise trade exceeded $19 trillion in 2022, a scale unimaginable at the U.N.'s founding. Non-western powers are increasingly more powerful and influential. In 2023, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) accounted for approximately 29% of global GDP, a figure that will rise further with it recent addition of six new members. This expanded BRICS bloc represents 46.5% of the world’s population and combines to account for $30.8 trillion in GDP, reflecting its substantial influence on global trade, energy markets and economic governance.

Additionally, the Global South as a whole has seen consistent economic growth, outpacing the Global North since the 1990s. In 2022, these economies contributed 42% of global GDP, a significant leap from 19% in 1990. This rapid ascent is driven by industrialization and increased South-South trade, which now accounts for 25% of global trade in goods.

Even these shifts in global economic power and geopolitical influence pale in comparison to the transformations on the horizon driven by new technologies.

However, even these shifts in global economic power and geopolitical influence pale in comparison to the transformations on the horizon driven by new technologies. Current international frameworks barely account for the profound changes shaped by social media, mass digital communication and the sheer volume of data generated daily. More critically, the AI revolution is upending every sector of society — from automating jobs and decision-making processes to enhancing military and surveillance capabilities. AI is rewriting the rules of engagement in governance, economy and security. And this is just the beginning.

On the horizon are quantum computing, which promises to exponentially increase processing power and revolutionize fields like cryptography and logistics; breakthroughs in biotechnology with potential to fundamentally alter healthcare, agriculture and even human biology; and nuclear fusion, which could solve humanity’s energy needs forever. These technologies are not just incremental improvements —they represent paradigm shifts that will reshape the fabric of society and global power dynamics. As such, global governance frameworks must evolve rapidly to keep pace with these technological disruptions, lest they become relics of a world that no longer exists.

These developments demand a rethinking of the systems that were put in place to prevent global conflict, as they now operate in a fundamentally different world. The U.N. has struggled to adapt to these changes, and multipolarity is a significant driver of this challenge. The diffusion of power, information and influence across nations and non-state actors makes it harder for centralized institutions to function as effectively as they once did.

U.S. Leadership is Needed

For the U.S., this means recognizing that its leadership should become more collaborative and open to new innovations and multipolar influences. To push forward its agenda on Security Council reform and empower youth in multilateral institutions, the U.S. should adopt a proactive and collaborative approach, starting at this year’s U.N. General Assembly.

The U.S. should work closely with other permanent members of the Security Council and member states to address long-standing calls for reform. This involves acknowledging other countries' reform proposals, including those that advocate for more inclusive veto powers or a rebalancing of regional representation. For example, while the Biden administration's support for African seats on the council is critical, the U.S. should also engage with proposals that support the inclusion of other Global South states. Furthermore, the U.S. could help mediate discussions around the contentious issue of veto power, potentially exploring proposals that limit or condition its use to reduce deadlocks in the Security Council. Compromise among the permanent members is the only viable path to achieving genuine and lasting reform of the Security Council. By spearheading a more inclusive and balanced reform agenda, the U.S. could solidify its leadership while advancing global governance in line with 21st-century realities.

The U.S. should work closely with other permanent members of the Security Council and member states to address long-standing calls for reform.

In addition to Security Council reform, the U.S. can champion youth empowerment at the Summit for the Future. Building on ideas already floated, such as the establishment of a strong U.N. Youth Council with real authority and youth quotas in leadership roles around the world, the U.S. should make a strong pledge to support formal structures that institutionalize youth participation in multilateral decision-making processes. The U.S. could commit to funding youth-led initiatives, backing programs that integrate youth leaders into international negotiations, and ensuring that future multilateral institutions, such as those addressing emerging technologies, include substantial youth representation. These steps would not only align with the U.N. Youth Strategy and other global youth movements but also position the U.S. as a leader in fostering generational change in global governance, a key aspect of the Summit for the Future's long-term vision.

Today’s challenges demand new approaches to peace and security, ones that allow for flexibility, incorporate diverse perspectives, and empower the next generation to reshape global systems. The founding principles of the U.N. — especially the determination to prevent war — remain valid, but the tools to achieve these goals must evolve, with an emphasis on adapting to modern challenges, decentralizing power and integrating new voices into global governance frameworks.


PHOTO: Bola Ahmed Tinubu, president of Nigeria, addresses the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly, at the U.N. headquarters in Manhattan on Tuesday, Sept. 19, 2023. (Dave Sanders/The New York Times)

The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s).

PUBLICATION TYPE: Analysis